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Merrill Lynch Says 5 Dow Jones Laggards Could Be 2018 Winners
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With just over three weeks left in 2017, it has been another banner year for stocks investors, with double-digit gains in all three major averages. Barring a big end-of-the-year meltdown, those gains should hold. The question is pretty simple: 2017 was great, but what do investors do for an encore in 2018?
Most Wall Street strategists are recommending investors stay with big, large cap stocks that have liquidity. If the selling starts, that last thing you want to be in is illiquid stocks with no bids to be found.
We screened the 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average for companies that lagged the market in 2017. We found five that offer tremendous value and could be big 2018 winners. Plus, all five are rated Buy at Merrill Lynch.
Exxon Mobil
This top Wall Street energy pick is still down almost 9% in 2017. Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) is the world’s largest international integrated oil and gas company. It explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas in the United States, Canada, South America, Europe, Africa and elsewhere.
The company also manufactures and markets commodity petrochemicals, including olefins, aromatics, polyethylene and polypropylene plastics, and specialty products, and it transports and sells crude oil, natural gas and petroleum products.
For 75 years in a row, Exxon has raised its dividend on a split-adjusted basis. Thanks to the company’s vertically integrated model in the oil and gas business, its profitability doesn’t suffer through commodity price swings like a company that’s a pure play in one segment of the value chain.
Shareholders receive a 3.74% dividend. The Merrill Lynch price objective is $94, while the Wall Street consensus target price is just $84.68. The stock closed Wednesday at $82.28 a share.
General Electric
This iconic blue chip industrial has been a huge laggard in 2017, and after cutting its dividend the most since the Great Depression it may be offering long-term investors a very promising entry point. General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) is a highly diversified, global industrial company. Its businesses are organized broadly under these segments: Power, Renewable Energy, Energy Connections, Oil & Gas, Aviation, Healthcare, Transportation and GE Capital.
The company’s products and services include power generation equipment, aircraft engines, locomotives, medical equipment and compressors. Over half of the business is tied to service and aftermarket support.
According to the most recent filing from the SEC, Director James Tisch purchased 3 million shares of GE on November 21 at prices from $17.83 to 17.99 on behalf of Loews. Also, Chairman and CEO John Flannery and other high ranking officials at the company have bought shares at multiyear lows. Notably a director bought 55,000 shares totaling $1 million, and Flannery bought 60,000 shares for $1.1 million.
The road back for GE can be a long one, but the chances of the company ever going out of business are very remote. Merrill Lynch said this after the company analysts day:
We lower our price objective, but we maintain our Buy for the following reasons: 1) The dividend cut is now behind us; 2) While the company’s lower 2018 outlook versus our and consensus’ forecast was not expected, we view the current outlook as the “true reset”; 3) GE is pre funding $6 billion of its pension obligations in 2018 by issuing debt, ameliorating some of the concerns about off-balance-sheet liabilities; 4) GE did not provide a lot of detail on potential spins/divestitures beyond highlighting part of Healthcare IT, Current & Lighting, Transportation, and its stake in Baker Hughes; however, we continue to think that the portfolio optionality goes well beyond that. 5) Our sum of the parts of $23, while lower, still points to 20%+ upside relative to the current stock price.
GE investors are now paid 2.64% dividend. Merrill Lynch has a $23 price objective, and the consensus price target is $22.65. The shares closed Wednesday at $17.66.
24/7 Wall St.IBM
This blue chip leader has lifted off the lows but may still be offering investors the best entry point in years. International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM) is a leading provider of enterprise solutions, offering a broad portfolio of information technology (IT) hardware, business and IT services, and a full suite of software solutions. The company integrates its hardware products with its software and services offerings in order to provide high-value solutions.
Five major segments comprise IBM: 1) Cognitive Solutions, 2) Global Business Services, 3) Technology Services & Cloud Platforms, 4) Systems and 5) Global Financing. Analysts cite the company’s potential in the public cloud as a reason for raising price objectives.
The company surprised Wall Street and posted solid third-quarter earnings that sent the shares higher. The Merrill Lynch team noted this when the company reported:
IBM posted better than expected third quarter revenue in each of the segments, and an in-line EPS that came from operating performance. Company maintained its full year EPS guide of “at least $13.80” driven by Mainframe cycle and improving software trajectory.
IBM shareholders receive a 3.89% dividend. The $200 Merrill Lynch price target is well above the consensus target of $163.74. The shares closed Wednesday at $154.10.
Merck
This is a leading health care stock for conservative investors, and the company is also expected to partner with Samsung Bioepis for biosimilar development. Merck & Co. Inc. (NYSE: MRK) offers therapeutic and preventive agents to treat cardiovascular issues, type 2 diabetes, asthma, nasal allergy symptoms, allergic rhinitis, chronic hepatitis C virus, HIV-1 infection, fungal infections, intra-abdominal infections, hypertension, arthritis and pain, inflammatory, osteoporosis, male pattern hair loss and fertility diseases.
The company also provides neuromuscular blocking agents for use in surgery, anti-bacterial products for skin and skin structure infections, cholesterol modifying medicines, non-sedating antihistamine and vaginal contraceptive products.
Merrill Lynch analysts feel that Merck offers attractive valuation, a good track record of returning cash, diversified revenue and substantial pipeline potential. They also noted that while the shares took a step back on the KN-189 update, they think Keytruda will be able to maintain its solid position in the immuno-oncology market.
Shareholders receive a 3.53% dividend. The Merrill Lynch price target is $64. The consensus target is $65.36, and shares closed Wednesday at $54.35.
24/7 Wall St.Verizon Communications
This top telecommunications stock has been among the worst performing in the Dow Jones Industrial Average for much of this year and is down over 10% year to date. Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) is a global leader in delivering the digital world. Verizon Wireless operates America’s self-described most reliable wireless network, with 109.5 million retail connections nationwide.
Verizon also provides converged communications, information and entertainment services over America’s most advanced fiber-optic network, and it delivers integrated business solutions to customers worldwide.
The company posted solid third-quarter results, and its stock remains a safe and solid growth and income play. The Merrill Lynch analysts said this at the time:
Verizon third quarter earnings per share of $0.98 was just ahead of consensus of $0.97 and $0.01 short of our $0.99 forecast. Verizon added 274,000 postpaid phone customers in the quarter, which was better than consensus of 251,000. Wireless service revenue inflected positive quarter over quarter for the first time in 3 years.
Verizon investors receive a 4.66% dividend. Merrill Lynch has set its price target at $52. The consensus target is $50.74, and share closed Wednesday at $50.68.
These five companies could be great total return stories in 2018 and also offer investors a degree of safety in what has become a very expensive stock market. All make sense for more conservative growth and income accounts, and all are still down for the year, which make them solid buys now.
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