Investing

Dot-Com Bubble Lessons Eating Your Bitcoin and Blockchain Stocks

Jon C. Ogg

Published: December 23, 2017 10:10 am

Last Updated: January 12, 2020 5:09 am

If you have been around the markets for a couple of decades, the phenomena of bitcoin and the subsequent rise of cryptocurrencies has been more than amazing. Riding high on blockchain, fortunes are being made (and perhaps lost). There are two key issues to consider when it comes it bitcoin and the periphery of its meteoric rise. The first is that bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are here to stay. The second is that the price action seen in the past week and in the weeks prior has all the classic hallmarks of a bubble.

It may sound contradictory that something can be both a bubble and here to stay. But looking back at many bubbles simply means that the inherent prices and valuations simply got out of control. In the case of bitcoin, let’s say that the price got way out of control. Its recent price action from $1,000 to $20,000, and then going briefly under $12,000 before rising back to $15,000 over the weekend, feels a lot like the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s into 2000. Many companies saw their stocks soar, only to end up flopping.

In all fairness in referencing the “bubble,” it is important to understand that many of those dot-com bubble companies survived, even if many more did not. Some are now even among the most powerful companies today. One classic hallmark of bitcoin as a bubble is that there have been a slew of companies in recent weeks that have announced bitcoin, cryptocurrency and blockchain strategies and business models. Simply announcing the move created huge rises in their stock prices. Most of them have come crashing back down.

Let’s go back 20 years to the end of 1997 and the start of 1998. This was a time that the world of the internet was just getting ramped up, and most internet users were using 28K or 56K modems with dial-up access. There was a wave of companies that made their stocks surge simply by making formal announcements of “internet strategies” followed by “plans to begin marketing and selling online” and even some companies simply announcing “dot-com name changes.”

In 2017, a slew of companies have announced business model changes, name changes and new strategies simply using the terms bitcoin, cryptocurrency and blockchain in their announcements. The magic of the classic dot-com bubble sure seems to have returned.

There are some obvious risks in using the term bubble. First off, it sounds bitter and resentful. Secondly, bubbles don’t always burst. Thirdly, bubbles can inflate, deflate and reflate. And bubbles can take years to pan out.

If you just take the Nasdaq as a barometer, which also included the meteoric rise of stocks like AOL, Microsoft, Dell, Cisco, Intel, Yahoo and Netscape, the 1990s was a wild ride into 2000. The Nasdaq (using very rounded numbers) rose from roughly 1,300 at the start of 1997 to 2,200 or so by the end of 1998. And from October of 1999 the index went from 2,800 to over 5,000 by March of 2000. After that bubble burst, the Nasdaq went back to around 1,250 in August of 2002 — and it took until 2015 to get back to the 5,000 mark. Now the Nasdaq Composite is challenging 7,000.

Many of the companies in the dot-com bubble saw their valuations surge, only to die miserable deaths or flounder. A few of those companies were eToys, Excite, GeoCities, Infoseek, Pets.com, Lycos, TheGlobe, WebVan and so on. But there was another tier of companies which just simply were jokers of companies that all flopped even if some had their assets and names acquired: eGlobe, Ktel, Value America, Dr. Koop, CommerceOne, Zapata and so on. And there were a slew of offerings from B2B companies, internet incubators, mutual fund launches and even the beloved tracking stocks. Does any of this sound familiar with now in bitcoin, cryptocurrencies and blockchain?

There were other virtual currencies that tried to make a go of it before bitcoin, as well. There was Flooz, Internetcash, Digicash, CyberCash and others. The rise of bitcoin in 2017 had many of the same hallmarks as the dot-com bubble and the Nasdaq from 1999 to 2000. Its own price skyrocketed, and many companies have jumped on board.

Here are some of the stocks related to bitcoin, cryptocurrencies and blockchain that have risen — and some which flopped.

The Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC) avoided a panic on Friday, with its shares rising 12.3% to $1,990. It was worth $500 back in June, but it hit a high above $3,500 in mid-December. It actually owns bitcoin and issues baskets in exchange for bitcoin. That being said, there is no mechanism to keep this trading above or below a perceived net asset value.

Digital Power Corp. (NYSEAMERICAN: DPW) is tiny and volatile, with an $85 million market value. Despite some concerns, its shares remain higher than when it was first featured. Digital Power’s power supply products and custom power system solutions are going to target cryptocurrencies, and the company raised a small amount of capital to finance an acquisition and to finance a purchase order. Its shares were down 15% to $4.11 on Friday’s close, in a 52-week trading range of $0.40 to $5.95.

Longfin Corp. (NASDAQ: LFIN) is a newly traded company, going from fintech and then seeing an exponential surge from about $5 to $125 after announcing the acquisition of a blockchain company. Its drop was 10.7% to $41.00 a share on Friday.

Long Island Iced Tea Corp. (NASDAQ: LTEA) was down 13% at $6.01 on Friday, but this stock had gone from $2.50 earlier in the week up to almost $8.00 after the company announced it would change names to Long Blockchain, with a strategy shift to the exploration of investment blockchain technology — while still keeping its beverage business. It still has just a $58 million market cap despite the major pop.

Marathon Patent Group Inc. (NASDAQ: MARA) might be called a patent troll by some because of how many patents it owns, but buying crypto-mining Global Bit Ventures allowed its shares and market value to triple in two months. Its shares were down 9.4% to $4.44, with a $55 million market cap on Friday, but the 52-week range is $0.52 to $10.03.

MGT Capital Investments (MGTI), with John McAfee as its leader, has executed purchase orders for additional Antminer mining rigs with Bitmain Technologies, and the shipment is expected early in the first quarter of 2018. MGT’s bitcoin mining operations will be comprised of over 5,000 Bitmain S9s. Its over-the-counter shares were down 3.5% at $4.88 on Friday, in a 52-week range of $0.46 to $8.14

Nova LifeStyle Inc. (NASDAQ: NVFY) is a tiny California-based outfit that designs, makes and sells furniture. After announcing the blockchain-enabled launch of “I Design Blockchain Technology Inc.” it will accept bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. The shares fell 9.7% to $2.59 on Friday. The 52-week range is $1.06 to $3.10, and the market cap is $71 million.

Overstock.com Inc. (NASDAQ: OSTK) has been around forever and recently was the first major retailer to accept cryptocurrencies. The company is also using blockchain subsidiary tZERO to launch a $250 million ICO (initial coin offering) and has announced small trading or financing deals with Siebert (Kennedy Cabot). Shares of Overstock were trading at $63.00, in a 52-week range of $13.75 to $82.70 and with a consensus price target of $85.00.

Riot Blockchain Inc. (NASDAQ: RIOT) was a $7 stock a couple of months ago. The company was previously known as Bioptix, and it intends to gain exposure to the blockchain ecosystem through targeted investments in the sector, with a primary focus on the bitcoin and ethereum. An 11% drop to $24.52 on Friday may sound bad enough, but this was a $45 stock briefly on Tuesday after the company announced a capital raise to go deeper into its strategy.

Social Reality Inc. (NASDAQ: SRAX) is an internet advertising and platform technology (digital marketing and data management platform) company with a $47 million market cap. Its shares surged with an ICO and on news that it is developing a blockchain identification graph technology named BIG Platform. Its shares fell 9.1% to $5.09 on Friday. The 52-week range is $1.11 to $7.95.

Square Inc. (NYSE: SQ) also has been a beneficiary of the bitcoin craze, seeing shares surge after its soft bitcoin launch. Back on November 15, Square started allowing a small number of users of Square Cash to buy bitcoin directly from its smartphone app. Square shares rose from $40 to almost $50 in just a few days, but Square went back under $40 a week ago. BTIG recently has warned that Square investors were ignoring risks. Square’s shares were under $14 at the start of 2017, and its stock was down 2% at $35.14 on Friday.

U.S. Global Investors Inc. (NASDAQ: GROW) had seen its shares surge late in 2017. This is a boutique registered investment advisory firm. Barron’s has noted that the company mines bitcoin in Iceland, where electricity is cheap. Its shares went from less than $1.50 in September to over $5 briefly at the end of November. They were down 13.7% at $4.07 on Friday, versus a 52-week trading range of $1.25 to $7.49. The market cap is just over $61 million.

Crypto Co. (CRCW) has seen the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) halt its over-the-counter shares over concerns regarding the accuracy and adequacy of information in the marketplace. The company deals primarily in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, including consulting and advice to companies regarding investment and trading in the digital asset market. After coming public in September with the shares close to $3.50, they had risen to over $500 on thin volume before being halted.

Companies elsewhere want their part of the crypto-bubble as well. HIVE Blockchain Technologies trades in Canada under the ticker HIVE. This company was formerly Leeta Gold, and now it sell itself as a Canadian company within the blockchain sector that has partnered for cryptocurrency mining out of Iceland. Its stock was down 10% at C$3.25 on Friday. It issued a release on December 18 that it had raised $50 million.