Investing

Jefferies Top Value Buys May Be Safe Options for a Dangerous Summer

Lee Jackson

Published: June 4, 2019 6:55 am

Last Updated: January 30, 2020 8:04 pm

During the more than 10-year run of this bull market, one thing has been painfully obvious to long-time investors: value stocks have woefully underperformed growth stocks. Value stocks are those that tend to trade at a lower price relative to their fundamentals (including dividends, earnings and sales). Given the market uncertainty, most of which is directly tied to the current trade issues, it makes sense to look at value and perhaps shift some capital there.

Each week, Jefferies presents some of its top value ideas, and this week’s selections are chock full of well-known companies that, for a variety of reasons, have landed in value territory. They all make sense for accounts looking to stay in equities despite being nervous about the current market turmoil.

Advance Auto Parts

This top stock has been hit hard this spring and now offers a great entry point. Advance Auto Parts Inc. (NYSE: AAP) is the second largest auto parts retailer in the United States, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. It operates more than 4,000 stores under the Advance Auto Parts brand, as well as nearly 200 AutoPart International locations. It sells to both do-it-yourself customers and professional installers.

The stock has been hammered despite a report in May of better than expected quarterly earnings that were higher year over year. The Jefferies team likes the current setup and noted this:

We recently spent the day with management and come away from our discussions confident that the company is on track to see operating margin improvement (we model 9.8% in fiscal year 2020 vs. 7.8% in fiscal year 2018) from enhanced supply chain management, merchandising initiatives and operating efficiency. That said, management also noted that a slower transition to typical Spring weather is likely to create some regional softness.

Advance Auto Parts pays investors a tiny 0.16% dividend. The Jefferies price target for the stock is a lofty $195, while the Wall Street consensus target of $193.56 is not far off. The shares ended Monday’s trading at $153.17 apiece.

BlackRock

Many on Wall Street love this firm’s growth potential near term and especially long term. BlackRock Inc. (NYSE: BLK) is the largest asset manager in the world, with more than $5 trillion in assets under management. Its acquisitions of Merrill Lynch Investment Management and iShares transformed it from a fixed income manager into a multi-product and multi-channel giant, with roughly 40% of its assets under management overseas. It has leading franchises in exchange-traded funds (ETFs), institutional fixed income, alternatives and cash. It also operates Solutions, a leader in risk analytics.

The company’s strong historical and prospective dividend growth is underpinned by the high-quality and diversified business model. Dividends have increased 18% annually over the past 10 years. Dividend growth likely will moderate but remains solid in the low teens, consistent with expectations for earnings growth in the years ahead.

Shareholders of BlackRock receive a 3.14% dividend. Jefferies has a price objective of $491, and the posted consensus target price is higher at $512.67. The stock closed at $419.90 a share on Monday.

Gap

This top retailer could be poised to benefit from continued extra consumer spending, and it is the top pick at Jefferies. Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) sells private label merchandise through three main retail concepts: The Gap, Old Navy and Banana Republic, along with smaller growth vehicles Athleta and Intermix.

The company also sells its products through its company websites. Most of its international stores are Gap stores, concentrated in Western Europe (France, United Kingdom), Japan, China and Canada. The company has over 3,500 stores worldwide.

The announcement earlier this year of the spin-off the Old Navy brand was greeted well by Wall Street. The remaining company, which still needs a name, will consist of the namesake Gap brand, Athleta and Banana Republic, plus a couple of lesser known brands. It will have annual revenues of about $9 billion, compared to Old Navy’s $8 billion, the company stated.

The Jefferies analysts are very bullish on the company and said this in the report:

The Company reported results last week and shares traded off significantly as poor weather hurt traffic trends and Gap brand came in much weaker. While May weather hasn’t been great, we see second half comparisons and margin trends improving and anticipate results improving from here. We highlight that on a sum of the parts basis, there’s room for shares to double.

Gap shareholders are paid a huge 5.16% dividend, though that yield could be cut. The $40 Jefferies price target is well above the consensus target last seen at $30.89. The stock closed most recently at $18.79 per share.

Lear

This stock also has been hit hard this spring and now offers an awesome entry point. Lear Corp. (NYSE: LEA) is a supplier of automotive seating and electrical systems. The company generates approximately 75% of its revenue from its seating business, with the remainder attributable to electrical systems.

The company has made significant strides in its restructuring efforts since emerging from bankruptcy, and it is the second largest seating supplier globally. The trade issues have weighed on the shares, and the analysts said this:

We hosted meetings with management and while the tone remains cautious on China and Europe, we continue to see room for growth. The company continues to target 4% seating outgrowth and sees global share shifting from 23% to 28% over time. Electrification, connectivity and active safety proliferation should help the segment support management’s long-term 6-8% out growth target. Company expects the second half of 2019 should represent an improvement as customer downtime tied to new model transitions abate. Shares trade at a decade low valuation of ~6 times our 2020 price to earnings.

Jefferies has set its price objective at $176. The analysts’ consensus target is $173.56, and the stock last traded at $123.28, after rising almost 4% on Monday.

The tape is treacherous and, given the sharp drop in yields recently, the warning signs clearly are flashing yellow. With that said, note that all these stocks are trading way off their 52-week highs, the companies have very solid franchises and they look like good ideas, especially for investors looking to thin their exposure to overheated sectors like technology.