Investing
Credit Suisse Best Ideas List Still Has 50% Implied Upside for 8 Stocks
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With the three major stock indexes trading at or near all-time highs, many investors are scratching their heads about where to look for new investment ideas at a time when interest rates have become so low again. Credit Suisse’s list of Top Investment Ideas from its Outperform ratings from this summer may have some calls for more speculative investors to consider. Of the 107 best ideas, 96 Outperform stocks classified as the firm’s top investment ideas.
After looking through the full best ideas list, we found eight stocks that had an upside threshold of roughly 50% or more to the Credit Suisse price target.
Before investors jump all in over massive upside, 24/7 Wall St. would remind them again that the three major U.S. equity indexes were all recently at or close to all-time highs. The views on some of these positions may change over the summer as another round of earnings is seen. Another consideration when looking at upside close to 50% and even higher is that traditional Dow Jones industrial and S&P 500 stocks currently have average total return upside call of roughly 8% to 10% at this stage in the 10-year old bull market. So the greater upside implies much more risk than with traditional large cap stocks.
Credit Suisse also noted to its clients that this list of research picks from the summer is not really supposed to represent a portfolio. It is just each of the analyst’s best ideas from their “Outperform” stocks with views in a six-month to 12-month horizon.
While we have shown the implied upside on each company here, we also have included trading data and the most recent consensus analyst price target from Refinitiv (Thomson Reuters) as a comparison.
Biomarin Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: BMRN) has a $133 price target at Credit Suisse, which implies 58% upside from the current $84 level. That is also $13 higher than the consensus target price of $120.29. Credit Suisse’s Martin Auster said:
Investor opinions are split following the recent valrox (hemophilia A gene therapy) Phase II 3-yea update and the interim Phase III results. While we agree there are some questions, we think investors are missing the bigger picture that the valrox 3-year durability was above investor expectations and valrox’s potential approval is incrementally de-risked. We expect potential accelerated filing in the next (approximately) 6 to 9 months setting up a 2020 approval, several years ahead of the nearest competitors.
CommScope Inc. (NASDAQ: COMM) has gone the wrong way since Credit Suisse first gave large upside targets here. In May, the firm took the target price down to $30 from $34, but that is still its top target. That said, shares currently trade near $16, which implies 85% upside. The consensus analyst target is closer to $26.
After adjusting for weakness from CommScope’s Arris acquisition, Credit Suisse’s Sami Badri and Michael Westendorf believe that a recovery in the second half of 2019 is a key focus point and that technology tailwinds remain in place for 2020. The team also sees margin downside as unlikely and that reducing post-merger leverage will help the company ahead.
Esperion Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: ESPR) currently trades at about $46.75, and the Credit Suisse target price of $90 from Auster gives an implied upside of 92%. The consensus target price is about $89, and the market cap is $1.3 billion.
Credit Suisse believes the FDA’s decision to accept the bempedoic acid new drug application and to not hold an AdCom de-risks the regulatory cycle for the product. Management has continued to take steps to better capitalize the company to allow for the best possible drug launch.
Halliburton Co. (NYSE: HAL) is a leader in oil and gas services, and Credit Suisse’s Jacob Lundberg has a $33 price target. Credit Suisse’s reference price was $21.19, but Halliburton shares were last seen trading closer to $22.50. That still implies upside of close to 47%, before considering its 3% dividend yield.
Lam Research Corp. (NASDAQ: LRCX) has been volatile, but Credit Suisse remains positive on this well-known semiconductor and circuit capex stock. Credit Suisse sees Lam as well positioned to benefit from a recovery in memory capital spending and noted a compelling valuation at less than 12 times expected earnings.
Credit Suisse’s John Pitzer has a $278 price target on Lam Research, implying 50% upside from the current $185 price, not considering its 2% dividend yield. One thing investors should consider here is that the consensus target price is down at about $217.50 and also that Pitzer actually has the highest official sell-side research price target in the Refinitiv universe.
Mr. Cooper Group Inc. (NASDAQ: COOP) is a company many investors will have never heard of, with its mere $703 million market cap. With it trading at $7.90, Credit Suisse’s price target of $17 implies well over 100% upside. Investors should take note that Mr. Cooper has a consensus target price of $13.25, and not that many analysts cover the stock. It offers services, origination and transaction-based services to single-family residences.
Credit Suisse’s Douglas Harter sees cash flow generation of the new Mr. Cooper improving, which should allow it to grow the servicing platform and/or reduce leverage while the visibility into servicing balance growth in 2019 remains high.
Sarepta Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: SRPT) recently traded up to about $150 from $130 after Pfizer’s DMD drug study stumbled over safety issues with severe side effects. This could make Sarepta the king of DMD treatments if Pfizer is out. The firm’s $207 price target compared with $121.74 at the time Credit Suisse noted it, so any 50% upside is really going to be if the shares pull back AND then recover.
Credit Suisse’s recent investor conversations have been focused on competitive risks and the regulatory path for DMD gene therapy programs. Sarepta is supported by clarity on DMD gene therapy approval timelines and from a growing recognition by the Street that competitive DMD gene therapy likely will be limited in nature and unlikely to disrupt Sarepta’s efforts to be first to market. Credit Suisse is modeling a mid-2020 filing and an early 2021 launch with a potential best-in-class profile.
WPX Energy Inc. (NYSE: WPX) was last seen at $10.80, and the Credit Suisse target price of $16 implies upside of 48% for this $4.5 billion market cap energy player. The driving force is a strong Permian takeaway portfolio and top-tier assets, followed by a multiyear outlook that demonstrated a strong commitment to a call for capital discipline. WPX’s consensus target price is $18.76. As a three-month to six-month catalyst time frame, the firm’s Betty Jiang said:
We see Bakken upside from strong performance from 2019 wells drilled offset their Mandaree pad, we also see NAV upside from continued delineation of their Permian position by WPX and peers focused on Bone Spring, Wolfcamp, and Avalon. Lastly, we see room for better FY19 capital efficiency from further cost deflation versus well costs assumed in the current budget.
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