Investing

Working From Home Permanently Could Rise 100% and These Stocks May Benefit

Lee Jackson

Published: April 16, 2020 7:06 am

Everybody is more than ready for things to get “back to normal,” but the big question making the rounds on Wall Street and Main Street is what will “normal” look like after a once in a hundred years catastrophe is in the rearview mirror? The answer is undoubtedly one of the biggest jump balls in the history of Wall Street and our nation.

In a very impressive look forward, a new research report from the analysts at Jefferies makes the case that one specific paradigm shift in the “new normal” that was thrust upon corporations due to the pandemic and the lock-down across the nation may spark some big change. They feel that corporate America may decide that the work-from-home (WFH) model actually may be incredibly productive, cost-effective and a possible wave of the future.

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The Jefferies report cites the numerous positives of the WFH model for not only employers but also for employees. The very comprehensive research report noted this:

5% of US workers WFH full-time. Post COVID-19, the benefits of flexible working will likely lead to a doubling of WFH levels which will drive paradigm shifts in tech requirements, consumer behavior and will provide extra time (removing commutes “gives back” 236 hours annualy to the average WFH employee). Benefits to the employer include: attraction of talent; reduction in real estate and other central costs; productivity gains and potentially lower levels of turnover. Less positive impacts may include reduced innovation (driven by lower human interaction levels). Although working alongside families in un-planned office locations and the absence of work from office days are sub-optimal, our survey suggests that more employees will seek to work from home post the pandemic.

The report also noted that a recent Gartner survey of 327 chief financial officers suggested that three-quarters of respondents intend to have an additional 5% or more of their workers work from home, and 25% of respondents suggested it could be up to 20% of their workforce.

The incredible change and innovation in technology has made this previously unfathomable scenario a potential reality. With currently available superfast internet speeds and latency, smartphones, software and a host of other capabilities that were not even possible or available a short 15 years ago, the transition to the WFH standard is becoming remarkably easy.

The Jefferies report cites numerous companies they feel will be winners (and some possible losers) as the WFH model emerges. Here we focus on the stocks rated Buy they feel will see direct benefits.

Amazon

This is the absolute leader in online shopping and is on the Merrill Lynch US 1 list of top stock picks. Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) serves consumers through retail websites that primarily include merchandise and content purchased for resale from vendors and those offered by third-party sellers. It has one of the most valuable brands in the world.

The company serves developers and enterprises through Amazon Web Services, which provides computing, storage, database, analytics, applications and deployment services that enable virtually various businesses. AWS is also the undisputed leader in the cloud now, and many top analysts see the company expanding and moving up the enterprise information value chain and targeting a larger total addressable market.

The company is also rolling out its checkout-free Go technology in a large grocery store and plans to license the cashierless system to other retailers. Amazon Go Grocery opened in Seattle last month. It uses an array of cameras, shelf sensors and software to allow shoppers to pick up items as varied as organic produce and wine and walk out without stopping to pay or scan merchandise. Accounts are automatically charged through a smartphone app once shoppers leave the store.

The Jefferies $2,300 target price for the shares compares with the Wall Street consensus target of $2,414.22. Amazon.com stock closed trading on Wednesday at $2,307.68.

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The need for the electronics and gear to set up a WFH office could be a huge tailwind for this leading retailer. Best Buy Inc. (NYSE: BBY) is the top specialty retailer of consumer electronics. The company operates about 1,000 stores in the United States, primarily big-box Best Buy locations, and over 200 stores in Canada and Mexico. The company also offers a variety of high-margin services, through its Geek Squad and Magnolia home theater channels, as well as a recent expansion into connected health and emergency services for seniors through its purchase of GreatCall.

The company announced this week that it has held on to 70% of its year-over-year sales despite the move to curbside-only service amid the COVID-19 outbreak. All the retailer’s domestic stores are closed to customers with the exception of the curbside service, and about 40 stores are shuttered entirely. Online sales have soared 250%, with half of those orders using the curbside service.

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Investors receive a 3.40% dividend. Jefferies has a $101 target price, while the consensus target was last seen at $81.55. Best Buy stock closed at $64.76 on Wednesday.

Broadcom

This stock has rallied smartly off the lows and offers big upside potential. Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ: AVGO) has an extensive semiconductor product portfolio that addresses applications within the wired infrastructure, wireless communications, enterprise storage and industrial end markets.

Applications for Broadcom’s products in its end markets include data center networking, home connectivity, broadband access, telecommunications equipment, smartphones and base stations, data center servers and storage, factory automation, power generation and alternative energy systems and displays.

Top Wall Street analysts like Broadcom’s leadership in the mobile, data center and broadband markets, and especially in the radio frequency (RF) arena. Many on Wall Street see a cyclical rebound in industrial and communications demand later in 2020 and in 2021.

Investors receive a 5.05% dividend. The $300 Jefferies price target is higher than the $296.04 consensus target. Broadcom stock was last seen trading at $257.44.

Ciena

This company has had a very up and down 52 weeks and frequently has been the subject of takeover rumors. Ciena Corp. (NASDAQ: CIEN) is a vendor for high-capacity optical transport and Ethernet switching equipment to carriers, enterprises, cable operators and governments. It specializes in transitioning legacy communications networks to converged, next-generation architectures capable of efficiently delivering a broader mix of high bandwidth services.

The company’s Converged Packet Optical segment offers networking solutions optimized for the convergence of coherent optical transport, Optical Transport Network (OTN) switching and packet switching. Its products comprise the 6500 Packet-Optical Platform, 5430 Reconfigurable Switching System, CoreDirector Multiservice Optical Switches and OTN configuration for the 5410 Reconfigurable Switching System.

Jefferies has set a $55 price target on Ciena stock. The posted consensus target is $49.83, and the last trade on Wednesday came in at $43.90.

Clearly, the Jefferies team is bullish on technology stocks that make the WFH job easier, and they also feel that brick-and-mortar and online retail could be winners as well. While working from home is not for everybody, it is something that will only grow in the years to come. Those companies that embrace it after the pandemic subsides will see numerous benefits, as will many employees.