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Earnings Previews: Alibaba, Bilibili, Bumble, Coupang, Xpeng

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There are still plenty of interesting quarterly earnings reports due out before the end of this week. Among those scheduled for late Wednesday and early Thursday are four closely watched Asian stocks and a dating app designed for women that came public in February.

Looking at companies reporting earnings following Tuesday’s close and Wednesday’s opening bell, we find Electronic Arts, FuboTV, Kinross Gold, QuantumScape and Sundial Growers.

This preview covers two firms reporting earnings after markets close Wednesday afternoon and three more due to report before markets open Thursday morning.

Bumble

Bumble Inc. (NASDAQ: BMBL) owns two dating apps: Bumble, one of the first dating apps “built with women at the center,” and Badoo, a dating app in Latin America and Europe. Since coming public in early February, the shares had dropped by about 25%, as of Monday’s close.

The company’s eponymous app accounted for about 62% of 2020 annual revenue and Badoo accounted for the rest. The Bumble app generates slightly more than twice as much revenue per subscriber as the Badoo app. Even though Bumble has fewer paying subscribers, the Bumble subscription cost is twice that of Badoo. The company reports results after markets close Wednesday.

Analysts are about evenly split on the ratings, with seven of 15 rating the shares a Buy and the rest giving the stock a Hold rating. At a recent price of around $50.50, the stock’s implied upside to a median price target of $69.50 is nearly 38%. Based on a high target of $82, the upside potential is 62.4%.

The company is expected to post a loss per share of $0.04 on revenue of $164.59 million. December quarter revenue totaled $166 million. For the full year, analysts are forecasting a loss per share of $0.02 on sales of $723.9 million, a jump of 33.5% in revenue, and a loss that is narrower by three cents per share.

The stock trades at 1,755.0 times estimated 2022 earnings per share (EPS) of $0.03 and 151.3 times estimated 2023 earnings of $0.34 per share. The stock’s post-IPO range is $49.53 to $84.80, and the low was set Tuesday morning. The average daily trading volume is 3.2 million shares.

Coupang

South Korea’s e-commerce giant, Coupang Inc. (NYSE: CPNG) is also set to report first-quarter results after markets close Wednesday. Last month, Goldman Sachs said the company grabbed 50% of the 2020 e-commerce growth in Korea. The company came public in the United States in early March, raising $4.6 billion in its IPO. That’s the largest foreign company IPO since Alibaba’s 2014 debut. Like Bumble, however, shares have dropped almost 25% since the IPO, likely the result of the slowdown in the tech sector.

Sentiment is decidedly cool on the stock, with five of six brokerages rating Coupang a Hold. The median price target is $49, implying a potential upside of nearly 32% to a current price of around $37.20. At the high target of $62 (from Goldman Sachs), upside potential on the stock is 67%.

There are no consensus estimates for first-quarter results, but in its report on Coupang, Goldman said it estimated EPS for 2021 at $0.29, rising to $0.47 in 2022 and $0.73 in 2023. Revenue is expected to rise from $1.88 billion in 2020 to $2.19 billion this year, $2.72 billion in 2022 and $3.55 billion in 2023.

The stock trades at about 128 times estimated 2021 EPS (Goldman’s estimate), 79 times estimated 2022 earnings and 51 times estimated 2023 earnings. The stock’s post IPO range is $36.38 to $69.00, and the low was posted Tuesday morning. The average daily trading volume is 8.4 million shares.


Alibaba

Alibaba Group Holdings Inc. (NYSE: BABA) is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter fiscal 2021 results before markets open Thursday. The company is second only to Amazon in size, with a market cap of $598 billion to Amazon’s $1.62 trillion. Company founder Jack Ma got sideways with the Chinese government last October, and the government quickly blocked the $35 billion IPO of Ant Financial, a business majority-owned by Ma and Alibaba. What further actions the government could take are a constant risk for Alibaba and other China-based companies.

Analysts’ sentiment on the stock is nearly unanimously positive, with 47 of 48 brokerages assigning the shares a Buy or Strong Buy rating. At a price of around $218.90, the upside potential to the consensus price target of $316.84 is nearly 45%. At the high target of $390.38, upside potential is 78%.

The consensus EPS estimate on the shares is $1.79, up 36.6% compared with the fourth quarter of last year. Revenue is expected to increase by nearly 70% to $27.7 billion. For the full fiscal year, analysts are looking for EPS of $10.20 (up 25% compared to 2020) on sales of $110.24 billion (up 40.3%).

The stock trades at 3.3 times expected 2021 EPS, 3.0 times estimated 2022 EPS and 2.5 times estimated 2023 EPS. Share have traded in a 52-week range of $194.03 to $319.32. Alibaba does not pay a dividend, and the average daily trading volume is 15.4 million shares.

Bilibili

Bilibili Inc. (NASDAQ: BILI) offers gaming, video and live broadcasting platforms for children and teens. Since its April 2018 IPO, Bilibili shares have added more than 740% to their share price. So far this year, the shares have increased in value by about 14%. The stock is a favorite of hedge funds, with 46 funds including the shares in their portfolios, an all-time high for the company, according to Insider Monkey. Bilibili reports results before markets open Thursday.

As with Alibaba, the vast majority (25 of 26) of surveyed brokers rate the stock a Buy or Strong Buy. The current price of around $97.70 per share implies a potential upside of about 63% to the consensus price target of $158.86. At the high target of $223.91, the implied upside is a whopping 129%.

The consensus estimates call for a first-quarter per-share loss of $0.34 on sales of $584.41 million. The per-share loss is worse than the $0.14 loss in the same quarter last year, but revenue is forecast to rise by 76.5%. For the full year, analysts estimate a per-share loss of $1.37, $0.22 cents larger than the 2020 loss on revenue of $2.98 billion, up more than 61%.

Bilibili is not expected to post a profit in 2021, 2022 or 2023. The 52-week range is $28.63 to $157.66. The average daily trading volume is nearly 6 million shares.

Xpeng

Shanghai-based electric vehicle maker Xpeng Inc. (NYSE: XPEV) saw its shares double in value last year. So far in 2021, shares have lost more than 42%, even though vehicle sales have increased by 413% year over year through the first four months of 2021. Since coming public late last August, the stock is up about 16%. The problem could be that sequential growth is essentially flat at around 5,100 vehicles shipped in each of the past two months. Xpeng reports quarterly results before U.S. markets open Thursday.

Eleven of 13 brokerages rate the stock a Buy or Strong Buy, and the stock, trading at around $24.75, has a potential upside of 100% to the consensus price target of $49.71. At the high target of $70.43, the upside potential is nearly 185%.

The consensus estimates for Xpeng’s first fiscal quarter call for a loss per share of $0.72 on sales of $406.61 million. For the 2021 fiscal year, current estimates call for a loss per share of $2.19 on sales of $2.15 billion.

Xpeng is not expected to post a profit in 2021, 2022 or 2023. The post-IPO trading range is $17.11 to $74.49. The average daily trading volume is 17.9 million shares.

 

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