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Earnings Previews: American Airlines, AT&T, Freeport-McMoRan, Southwest Airlines

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Of 30 companies in our watchlist that reported earnings late Monday or before markets opened Tuesday, two posted a negative surprise on earnings and one met expectations exactly. Six missed revenue estimates and seven others hit sales estimates exactly. All in all, a good performance.

We already have previewed five companies scheduled to report September-quarter results after markets close Tuesday and before they open again on Wednesday: Baker Hughes, Netflix, NextEra Energy, United Airlines and Verizon.

Earlier in the day, we previewed earnings reports due out after markets close Wednesday: IBM, Kinder Morgan, Las Vegas Sands and Tesla.

Here’s a look at four companies set to report results before the opening bell on Thursday.

American Airlines

Since Delta Air Lines reported quarterly results last week that beat on both the top and bottom lines, airline stocks have dropped by 3% to nearly 8.5%. The decline was due mainly to a soft outlook for the rest of the year, due largely to rising fuel costs. American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ: AAL) stock has dipped by 3% but is still the best performing over the past 12 months, with a share price gain of more than 59%. It is virtually inevitable that other airlines face the same issue.

A second issue facing airlines is replacing employees who left during the pandemic. On the plus side, this year’s holiday season is expected to improve significantly compared to the pandemic trough of last year.

Analysts are cautious on the stock. Of 22 brokerages covering it, nine have a Hold rating on the shares and eight more have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. At a recent price of around $19.60, the implied upside based on a median price target of $20.75 is about 5.9%. At the high target of $33, the upside potential is more than 63%.

Third-quarter revenue is forecast at $8.91 billion, which would be 19.2% higher sequentially and up 181% year over year. The company is expected to post a loss per share of $1.03, better than the $1.69 loss per share in the prior quarter and much improved over last year’s third-quarter loss of $5.54 per share. For the full year, the company is expected to post a loss of $8.00, compared to the year-ago loss of $19.66, on revenue of $29.73 billion, up 71.5%.

The stock trades at 57.8 times estimated 2022 earnings and 6.9 times estimated 2023 earnings. The stock’s 52-week range is $10.63 to $26.09. American Airlines does not pay a dividend.

AT&T

Following a spike in early May, shares of AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) have plunged again and currently trade basically flat for the past 12 months. The transaction that will create a new media company, Warner Bros Discovery, won’t be completed until next year, but the deal will reward AT&T shareholders with free shares of the new company to complement the AT&T shares they now own. The not-so-good news for shareholders is the company’s plan to cut its rich dividend.

Sentiment on the stock is decidedly cool. Of 28 brokerages covering the stock, 17 have put a Hold rating on it while three more rate the shares a Sell. The rest have Buy or Strong Buy ratings. At a price of around $25.40, the implied upside based on a median price target of $32 is 26%. At the high price target of $37, the upside potential is about 46%.

Third-quarter revenue is forecast at $40.33 billion, down 8.4% sequentially and down 4.7% year over year. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) are forecast at $0.79, down 11% sequentially but up 3.9% year over year. For the full year, EPS are expected to come in at $3.25, up 2.3%, on sales of $168.38 billion, down about 2%.

AT&T stock trades at 7.9 times expected 2021 EPS, 8.1 times estimated 2022 earnings and 7.8 times estimated 2023 earnings. The stock’s 52-week range is $25.01 to $33.88. AT&T’s current annual dividend is $2.08 (yield of 8.21%).


Freeport-McMoRan

Over the past 12 months, shares of copper and gold miner Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE: FCX) spiked by nearly 162% in early May before dropping back for a gain to date of 128%. In a recent look at the best dividend-paying stocks among copper miners, Freeport did not make the cut. But its share price increase was more than double that of any of its peers. With copper prices once again flirting with 12-month highs, Freeport and the other miners are looking at some potentially big gains again.

It should be no surprise that 13 of 18 analysts covering the stock have a Buy or Strong Buy rating on the stock. Three others rate the shares at Hold. At a price of around $38.90, the upside potential based on a median price target of $42 is almost 8%. At the high price target of $50, the upside potential reaches 28.5%.

Third-quarter revenue is forecast at $6.22 billion, up more than 8% sequentially and nearly 62% year over year. Adjusted EPS are forecast at $0.81, up 4.7% sequentially and 179% year over year. For the full year, analysts are currently forecasting EPS of $2.92, up 445%, and sales of $23.09 billion, up nearly 63%.

The stock trades at 13.1 times expected 2021 EPS, 11.5 times estimated 2022 earnings and 13.6 times estimated 2023 earnings. The stock’s 52-week range is $16.68 to $46.10. The company pays an annual dividend of $0.30 (yield of 0.78%).

Southwest Airlines

Shares of Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE: LUV) have added 25.4% over the past 12 months, including a spike to a gain of more than 60% in early April. A resurgence in the coronavirus pandemic and, recently, soaring fuel costs have weighed on the shares. The airline recently canceled nearly 2,000 flights, blaming weather, air traffic issues and staffing problems. Because neither weather nor air traffic control conditions were any better for any other airline, it seems reasonable to conclude that the primary issue was staffing. As with the other airlines, that issue is going to take more time to resolve.

Analysts are upbeat on the stock, however, with 20 of 22 giving the shares Buy or Strong Buy ratings, and the other two have Hold ratings. At a price of around $49.60, the upside potential based on a median price target of $65 is 31%. At the high price target of $76, the upside potential is 53%.

Third-quarter revenue is forecast at $4.58 billion, up 14.3% sequentially and 171% year over year. Analysts expect Southwest to post a loss per share of $0.27, better than the $0.35 per share loss in the prior quarter and sharply better than the $1.99 loss per share a year ago. For the full year, current estimates call for a loss per share of $2.19, compared to last year’s per-share loss of $6.22. Revenue is forecast to rise 70% to $15.39 billion.

Southwest stock trades at 17.9 times estimated 2022 earnings and 11.3 times estimated 2023 earnings. The stock’s 52-week range is $37.48 to $64.75, and Southwest does not pay a dividend.

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