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Earnings Previews: Cameco, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Phillips 66

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More than 100 companies in our watch list reported earnings after markets closed Monday and before they opened again on Tuesday. Of those, 37 missed consensus earnings estimates and 25 missed revenue estimates.

After markets close Wednesday, we’ll get reports from three companies: eBay, Ford and Teladoc. On Thursday morning, reports are due from four more companies we follow: Caterpillar, Comcast, Linde and Sirius XM.

And here’s our look at four companies scheduled to report results after markets close Thursday: Amazon, Apple, Starbucks and U.S. Steel.

Before markets open on Friday, the following four firms are also scheduled to report quarterly results.

Cameco

Canada-based uranium producer Cameco Corp. (NYSE: CCJ) has seen its share price rise by 177% over the past 12 months. The price of uranium reached a nine-year peak in mid-September, and Cameco posted a 10-year high just two weeks ago. Recent demand for uranium has been driven by a new ETF that buys and holds physical uranium, soaking up stockpiles that have been building since the Fukushima disaster of 2012.

Analysts are fairly bullish on Cameco stock. Of 11 brokerages covering the shares, six rate the stock a Buy or Strong Buy, and the other five have a Hold rating on the shares. At the recent price of around $26.50, the upside potential based on a median price target of $30.80 is 16%. At the high price target of $31.97, the upside potential is about 21%.

Third-quarter revenue is forecast at $341.01 million, which would be up nearly 19% sequentially and up almost 20% year over year. Analysts expect Cameco to post a per-share loss of $0.03, better than the prior quarter’s loss of $0.08 per share and much better than the year-ago loss of $0.15 per share. For the full fiscal year, the loss per share is forecast at $0.19, worse than the $0.13 per share loss in 2020, on sales of $1.18 billion, down 16.5%.

Cameco is not expected to post a profit in any of 2021, 2022 or 2023. The stock trades at an enterprise value-to-sales multiple of 8.8 times for 2021, 7.8 times for 2022 and 8.1 times for 2023. The stock’s 52-week range is $9.01 to $27.42, and the company pays an annual dividend of $0.06 (yield of 0.24%).

Chevron

Over the past 12 months, shares of Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) have risen by 67%, including a jump of 20% in the past four-and-a-half weeks. Rising crude oil prices and a close watch on capital spending will keep Chevron on the good side of investors who like the stock’s healthy dividend.

There are no Sell ratings from any of the 29 analysts covering the stock. There are 12 Hold ratings and 17 Buy or Strong Buy ratings on the shares. At a price of around $112.60, the upside potential based on a median price target of $125 is 11%. At the high price target of $ 150, the upside potential is more than 33%.

Third-quarter revenue is forecast at $40.89 billion, up 8.8% sequentially and 67.0% year over year. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) are forecast at $2.19, up 28% sequentially and nearly 2,000% above last year’s EPS of $0.11 for the quarter. For the full year, analysts expect Chevron to post EPS of $7.22, compared to a loss per share of $0.20 in 2020, and revenue of $150.49 billion, or 59% higher.

Chevron stock trades at 15.8 times expected 2021 EPS, 13.2 times estimated 2022 earnings and 14.3 times estimated 2023 earnings. The stock’s 52-week range is $65.16 to $114.60. Chevron pays an annual dividend of $5.36 (yield of 4.71%).


Exxon Mobil

Shares of Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) have more than doubled over the past 12 months. As is the case with Chevron, rising crude oil prices and careful attention to spending are expected to keep the dividend high and investors smiling. The one headwind that may cause some trouble is pressure from shareholders and environmental groups for a comprehensive plan for cutting carbon emissions.

Of 28 analysts covering the stock, 17 rate the shares a Hold, two give the stock a Strong Sell rating, and the remaining nine rate the shares a Buy or Strong Buy. At a price of around $64.60, the upside potential based on a median price target of $66 is about 2.2%. At the high target of $90, the upside potential is 154%.

Third-quarter revenue is forecast at $72.05 billion, up 6.4% sequentially and 56% year over year. Adjusted EPS are pegged at $1.52, up 38% sequentially and much improved over a loss per share of $0.18 in the year-ago quarter. For the full fiscal year, current estimates call for EPS of $4.69, up from a loss of $0.33 in 2020, on sales of $270.88 billion, up 49%.

Exxon shares trade at 13.7 times expected 2021 EPS, 12.0 times estimated 2022 earnings and 12.5 times estimated 2023 earnings. The stock’s 52-week range is $31.11 to $65.94, and Exxon pays an annual dividend of $3.48 (yield of 5.51%).

Phillips 66

Typically, when oil prices rise, independent refiners get hit in the wallet. The country’s largest refiner, by market cap, is Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX), and its shares have added about 70% over the past 12 months, roughly the same as Chevron’s share price increase. However, since early June, Phillips 66 stock has dropped by 10%, and the southward trend is continuing after a recent spike caused by the U.S. EPA dithering over whether to waive the Renewable Fuels Standard that would require higher production of ethanol. The oil industry wants the waiver; U.S. corn producers do not. So far, the corn producers have usually lost.

Wednesday morning, the company announced it would acquire the outstanding shares of Phillips 66 Partners that it doesn’t already own in a transaction worth $3.4 billion. The acquisition brings all the company’s midstream assets back into the fold.

Analysts are quite bullish on the stock, with 13 of 18 rating the stock a Buy or Strong Buy. The other five rate the shares a Hold. At a price of around $78.00, the upside potential based on a median price target of $90 is 15%. At the high price target of $107, the upside potential is 37%.

The consensus estimate for third-quarter revenue is $24.33 billion, down nearly 13% sequentially but up 49% year over year. Adjusted EPS are forecast at $1.93, up 160% sequentially and higher than a loss per share of one cent in the year-ago quarter. For the full fiscal year, analysts are looking for EPS of $2.65, up from a loss per share of $0.89 in 2020, and revenue of $100.61 million, up 54%.

Phillips 66 stock trades at 31.6 times expected 2021 EPS, 14.1 times estimated 2022 earnings and 12.2 times estimated 2023 earnings. The stock’s 52-week range is $43.27 to $94.34. Phillips 66 pays an annual dividend of $3.68 (yield of 4.48%).

 

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