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Earnings Previews: Alphabet, AMD, GM, PayPal, Starbucks

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U.S. equity markets opened mixed on Monday, with the Dow Jones industrials lagging and the tech-heavy Nasdaq adding about 1.5% in the early going. The blue-chippers were weighed down by Dow (the chemicals company), Visa, Caterpillar and Walgreens.

In earnings reports released Monday morning, defense contractor L3Harris beat on profits but missed on sales and issued downside guidance for the current fiscal year. Citrix reported a beat on both the top and bottom lines but has accepted an offer to be taken private for $13 billion, a price that some investors think is not enough.

After markets close Monday and before they open on Tuesday, these five firms are set to share quarterly results: Enterprise Products, Exxon Mobil, NXP Semiconductors, Sirius XM and UPS.

Here is a look at five firms scheduled to report results after markets close Tuesday afternoon.

Alphabet

The parent of Google, Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOGL), like many other big-name tech stocks, is trying to recover from a slide that began in mid-November and picked up speed in late December. Over the past 12 months, the stock has posted a gain of more than 46%, including a drop of 15% between mid-November and last week. Perhaps the biggest challenge to Alphabet’s business remains proposed changes to European and U.S. regulations on how user data is collected and used.

Analysts, however, remain universally bullish on the stock. Of 47 ratings, 46 give the stock a Buy or Strong Buy rating and the other has a Hold rating on the shares. At a recent price of around $2,670.20 a share, the upside potential based on a median price target of $3,374 is 26.4%. At the high price target of $3,800, the upside potential is 42.3%.

Fourth-quarter revenue is forecast at $71.87 billion, which would be up 10.4% sequentially and 26.3% higher year over year. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) are pegged at $27.19, down 2.9% sequentially but up 22% year over year. For the full 2021 fiscal year, current consensus estimates call for EPS of $103.38, up almost 85%, on revenue of $254.16, up 39.2%.

Alphabet stock trades at about 224.6 times expected 2021 EPS, 23.3 times estimated 2022 earnings of $114.30, and 20.0 times estimated 2023 earnings of $173.55. The stock’s 52-week range is $1,844.59 to $3,019.33. The company does not pay a dividend, and the total shareholder return for the past 12 months is 45.9%.


AMD

Chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ: AMD) had nearly doubled its share price for 2021 by late November. By mid-December, the shares had dropped 15% from that high, and the stock’s 12-month share price gain came in at about 29.5%. For the year to date, AMD’s stock has dipped by 23%, the worst of five large chipmakers: Intel, Qualcomm, Broadcom and Nvidia. Chinese regulators have approved AMD’s proposed merger with Xilinx, and the two companies have said the deal will now close by the end of March.

There are 39 analysts covering AMD, and 21 rate the stock a Buy or Strong Buy. Another 17 have a Hold rating on the shares. At a share price of around $110.20, the upside potential to a median price target of $142.50 is 29.2%. At the high price target of $180, the upside potential is 63.3%.

Consensus estimates call for third-quarter revenue of $4.52 billion, up 4.7% sequentially and 39.5% year over year. Adjusted EPS are expected to improve by 3.8% sequentially and 46% year over year to $0.76. For full fiscal 2021, analysts’ consensus estimates call for EPS of $2.65, up 105%, on revenue of $16.13 billion, up 65.3%.

AMD stock trades at about 41.9 times expected 2021 EPS, 32.8 times estimated 2022 earnings of $3.37 and 26.5 times estimated 2023 earnings of $4.18 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $72.50 to $164.46. AMD does not pay a dividend, and total shareholder return over the past year is nearly 29%.

General Motors

Following a dive in late August, shares of General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) jumped to a 52-week high in early January that would have yielded a share-price gain of around a third for the 12-month period that ends Monday. As it is, however, the stock has dropped nearly 22% this month, and the 12-month share price gain is a mere 1.7%. What will matter is not so much what GM has done, but what its outlook is for the coming year. All the happy talk from GM (and Ford) about electric vehicles and trucks will need to be translated into projections that can be met or even exceeded.

Analysts like the company’s prospects. Of 23 brokers covering the stock, 21 have a Buy or Strong Buy rating on the shares, and the other two rate the stock at Hold. At a share price of around $51.60, the upside potential based on a median price target of $75.00 is 56.3%. At the high price target of $100, the upside potential is 93.6%.

Fourth-quarter revenue is forecast at $34.24 billion, up 27.9% sequentially but down 8.7% year over year. Adjusted EPS are forecast at $1.15, down 24.3% sequentially and 40.4% lower year over year. For full fiscal 2021, consensus estimates call for EPS of $6.83, up 39.3%, on revenue of $127.32 billion, up almost 4%.

GM stock trades at about 7.6 times expected 2021 EPS, 7.5 times estimated 2022 earnings of $6.93 and 7.2 times estimated 2023 earnings of $7.16. The stock’s 52-week range is $47.07 to $67.21. GM does not pay a dividend, and total shareholder return for the past year is 2.3%.

PayPal

PayPal Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: PYPL) stock has dropped by 27.8% over the past 12 months. The sell-off that has hammered tech stocks began in mid-October for PayPal. Since then, shares are down more than 37%. PayPal has acquired a buy-now-pay-later company and is looking to increase its footprint in the business sector to bring it up to a level commensurate with its position in the consumer sector. Its outlook could determine how the shares move following Tuesday afternoon’s report.

Of 47 analysts covering the stock, 39 rate PayPal shares as a Buy or Strong Buy and another seven have given the stock a Hold rating. At a share price of around $169.50, the upside potential based on a median price target of $250 is 47.5%. At the high target of $342, the upside potential is more than 100%.

Fourth-quarter revenue is expected to come in at $6.89 billion, up 11.4% sequentially and 12.6% year over year. Adjusted EPS are forecast at $1.12, up 1.0% sequentially and 3.7% year over year. For the full year, estimates call for EPS of $4.61, up 18.7%, on sales of $25.35 billion, up 18.2%.

PayPal stock currently trades at about 36.8 times expected 2021 EPS, 32.2 times estimated 2022 earnings of $5.26 and 25.6 times estimated 2023 earnings of $6.61 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $152.08 to $310.16. PayPal does not pay a dividend and total shareholder return for the past 12 months was negative 27.9%.

Starbucks

Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ: SBUX) shares posted a 52-week high in late July. Since then, they have dropped by about 22%, with the biggest share of that coming this month. The company needs to boost its international sales and is planning to open more than 2,000 new locations globally in 2022. Three-quarters of the new stores will be located outside the United States. Rising wage costs in this country also have contributed to Starbucks’ decision to grow internationally.

Analyst sentiment is mixed on the stock, with 18 of 34 having a Hold rating on the stock and 16 assigning a Buy or Strong Buy rating. At a share price of around $97.50, the upside potential based on a median price target of $120 is 23%. At the high price target of $142, the upside potential is 45.6%.

For the company’s first quarter of fiscal 2022, analysts are expecting revenue of $7.95 billion, down 2.4% sequentially but up by 17.8% year over year. Adjusted EPS are pegged at $0.79, down 20.6% sequentially and 6% lower year over year. For the fiscal year, current estimates call for EPS $3.43, up 5.8%, on sales of $32.62 billion, up 12.3%.

Starbucks stock trades at about 28.4 times expected 2021 EPS, 24.5 times estimated 2022 earnings of $3.98 and 21.4 times estimated 2023 earnings of $4.56 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $93.79 to $126.32. Starbucks pays an annual dividend of $1.96 (yield of 2.02%). Total shareholder return for the past year was 2.2%.

 

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