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Earnings Previews: AMC, Nio, Nordstrom, Salesforce, SoFi

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While the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues and negotiations between the two countries have begun, U.S. companies will continue to report quarterly results this week. Events in Europe that are arguably far more important than company earnings may have a shorter, if sharper, impact on investors than do financial results and company outlooks for the future.

Several firms in the electric vehicle industry have reported or will report results Monday: Blink, Canoo, Lucid, Luminar and Velodyne Lidar. A major retailer, a leading PC maker and a struggling internet video conferencing firm are also on deck to report results after markets close Monday: HP, Sea Limited, Target and Zoom.

Here is a look at five companies scheduled to report quarterly results after markets close on Tuesday.

AMC

A year ago, AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (NYSE: AMC) was riding high. Shares had soared from around $2 to around $20 in late January and, after a brief pullback, were about to begin another run higher that would see the stock reach a high of $72.62 in early June. The stock still trades at nearly nine times its level in January of 2021, but enthusiasm for the shares has dimmed as company management disappointed a lot of retail investors recently by choosing to reduce rather than doing something to add to the company’s growth.

Just nine brokerages cover the stock. Only four rate the shares at Hold, and no analyst rates the stock a Buy. At the recent price of around $17.60 a share, the stock trades about three times higher than its median price target of $6.00. At the high price target of $35.10, the implied gain is 99%.

Fourth-quarter revenue is forecast at $1.11 billion, which would be up 46% sequentially and 583% higher year over year. Analysts expect AMC to report a loss per share in the fourth quarter of $0.25, better than the prior quarter loss of $0.44 per share and far better than last year’s quarterly loss of $3.15 per share. For the full year, AMC is expected to post a loss per share of $2.80, compared with last year’s loss of $16.15 per share. Revenue is forecast to double to $2.47 billion.

AMC is not expected to post a profit in 2021, 2022 or 2023. The stock trades at a sales multiple of 7.9 times its forecast 2021 enterprise value, 4.0 times 2022’s estimated value and 3.6 times the 2023 estimate value. The stock’s 52-week range is $7.50 to $72.62, and AMC does not pay a dividend. Total shareholder return over the past year was about 120.5%.

Nio

China-based EV maker Nio Inc. (NYSE: NIO) has dropped nearly 60% from its share price over the past 12 months. The stock’s only foray above the break-even line occurred on June 30. After sorting through some issues over the company’s structure, Nio expects to begin trading on the Hong Kong stock exchange on March 10. The automaker is not raising any cash from the listing, unlike competitors Xpeng and Li Auto, which raised about $2 billion and $1.7 billion, respectively, when they completed their secondary listings in Hong Kong.
There are 25 analyst ratings on Nio’s stock, and 21 of those are Buy or Strong Buy. At a share price of around $20.95, the upside potential based on a median price target of $53.70 is about 156%. At the high target of $88.01, the upside potential is 320%.

For the fourth quarter, the consensus estimates call for revenue of $1.547 billion, up 1.5% sequentially and 51% year over year. Nio is expected to post an adjusted loss per share of $0.12, worse than the $0.06 per-share loss in the prior quarter but better than the year-ago loss of $0.14 per share. For the full year, the company is expected to report a per-share loss of $0.30, better than the $0.66 loss last year, on sales of $5.67 billion, up about 128%.

Analysts estimate that Nio will trade at a multiple of 91.4 times earnings in 2023. Until then, it is not expected to post a profit. The enterprise value-to-sales multiple is expected to be 5.3 in 2021 and 3.0 in 2022. The stock’s 52-week range is $18.47 to $55.13. The company does not pay a dividend. Total shareholder return for the past year is negative 54.3%.

Nordstrom

Shares of department store operator Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN) have dumped about 44% of their value over the past 12 months. Since the beginning of the year, however, the shares have lost only about 8%. Investors are going to want to hear that the company’s e-commerce business, which accounts for about 40% of sales, is growing and that inventories are not swollen with unsold winter goods.

Analysts are cautious on the stock. Of 21 brokerages covering it, 13 rate the shares at Hold while only two have a Buy or Strong Buy rating. At a share price of around $20.90, the upside potential based on a median price target of $23.00 is 10%. At the high price target of $41.00, the upside potential is 96%.

Fourth-quarter revenue is forecast at $4.32 billion, up nearly 20% sequentially and 19.5% year over year. Adjusted EPS are forecast at $1.03, up 165% sequentially and 178% year over year. For the full 2022 fiscal year that ended in January, analysts expect Nordstrom to report EPS of $1.29, compared to a loss of $3.17 a year ago, on sales of $14.67 billion, up 37% year over year.

Nordstrom stock trades at 16.2 times expected 2022 EPS, 10.5 times estimated 2023 earnings of $1.99 and 8.7 times estimated 2024 earnings of $2.39 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $18.65 to $46.45. Nordstrom does not pay a dividend. Total shareholder return for the past year is negative 42.7%.

Salesforce

Shares of enterprise software maker Salesforce.com Inc. (NYSE: CRM) have struggled over the past 12 months, particularly since early November. The stock has lost about 33% of its value since then. The Dow Jones industrial average component’s outlook will figure significantly in how investors react to the report.
Of 49 analysts covering the stock, 42 have a Buy or Strong Buy rating. The other seven rate the shares at Hold. At a share price of around $208.10, the upside potential based on a median price target of $315 is 51.3%. At the high price target of $385, the upside potential is 85%.

The consensus revenue estimate for the fourth quarter is $7.24 billion, up 5.5% sequentially and 24.4% year over year. Adjusted EPS are forecast at $0.75, down 41% sequentially and down almost 28% year over year. For the full 2022 fiscal year that ended in January, current estimates call for EPS of $4.69, down 4.8%, on sales of $26.40 billion, up 24.2%.

Salesforce stock trades at 44.7 times expected 2022 EPS, 44.0 times estimated 2023 earnings of $4.75 and 37 times estimated 2024 earnings of $5.65 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $184.44 to $311.75. The company does not pay a dividend. Total shareholder return for the past year is negative 3.7%.

SoFi

Decentralized financial services firm SoFi Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: SOFI) has posted a share price drop of around 40% over the past 12 months. Even receiving its federal banking charter earlier this month only slowed the decline briefly. The company is spending piles of cash on marketing and just announced a $1.1 billion, all-stock acquisition of cloud-based banking platform Technisys. The company’s outlook is going to have to nail down some growth targets if SoFi expects to keep investors happy.

Of 13 analysts covering the stock, 10 give the shares a Buy (nine) or Strong Buy (one) rating. The other three have a Hold rating. At a share price of around $10.80, the upside potential based on a median price target of $19.00 is about 76%. At the high target of $22, the upside potential is almost 104%.

Analysts expect the company to report fourth-quarter revenue of $279.47, up 0.8% sequentially, and a loss per share of $0.12. For the 2021 fiscal year, analysts expect an adjusted loss of $1.34 per share on sales of $1.0 billion. Comparison data is not available.

SoFi is not expected to post a profit in 2021, 2022 or 2023. The enterprise value-to-sales multiple is expected to be 8.4 in 2021. Based on estimated earnings for 2022 and 2023, the multiples are 5.8 and 4.1, respectively. The stock’s 52-week range is $8.82 to $24.95, and SoFi does not pay a dividend. Total shareholder return for the past year is negative 41.5%.

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