Investing

Earnings Previews: Bitfarms, Mind Medicine, SAIC, Xpeng

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After markets closed Wednesday afternoon, Fortuna Silver reported a quarterly revenue beat and an earnings miss. Free cash flow from operations was also lower year over year. The stock traded slightly lower in Thursday’s premarket. Trip.com reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue and shares traded up about 7%.
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Before markets opened Thursday, Darden Restaurants reported misses on both profits and revenue. Shares traded down more than 2%. China’s Hello Group missed on earnings while beating revenue, although year-over-year revenue was down 3.2%. Shares traded down nearly 11%.

After markets close, we expect reports from Joby Aviation and Nio. There are no earnings reports of interest scheduled for Friday.

Here is a look at four companies set to report quarterly results first thing Monday morning.

Bitfarms

Toronto-based crypto-mining firm Bitfarms Ltd. (NASDAQ: BITF) came public in late June last year, and the share price has dipped by about 6.8% since then, after spiking to a post-IPO high in early November. At the end of last month, the company reported 4,883 bitcoins in a custody account with a value of $210 million. The company mined 298 new bitcoins in February, a year-over-year increase of 67%. Bitfarms mined 301 bitcoins in January.

Even though the stock trades about 3.8 million shares daily, only one analyst covers the company. That analyst has a Strong Buy rating and a price target of $10.00. At a recent price of $3.70 a share, the stock’s upside potential is 170%.

Fourth-quarter revenue is forecast at $62.6 million, which would be up nearly 40% sequentially and 450% higher year over year. Bitfarms is expected to post adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.13, or 83% higher sequentially and up from a loss per share of $0.06 year-ago quarter. For the full 2021 fiscal year, the company is expected to report EPS of $0.24, up from a loss per share of $0.19, on revenue of $172.4 million, up nearly 400%.

The stock trades at 15.4 to expected 2021 EPS and 9.2 times estimated 2022 earnings. The stock’s 52-week range is $2.75 to $19.36. Bitfarms does not pay a dividend. Total shareholder return for the past year is negative 31.2%.

Mind Medicine

Mind Medicine (MindMed) Inc. (NASDAQ: MNMD) is a clinical-stage biotech firm investigating the use of psychedelics like psilocybin, LSD, MDMA and DMT to treat addiction and mental illness. The company uplisted to the Nasdaq last November. Mind Medicine is one of a half dozen or so development stage companies seeking approval for therapies using psychedelics.

All four brokerages that cover the stock have a Buy or Strong Buy rating on the shares. At a share price of around $1.20, the upside potential based on a median price target of $6.50 is about 442%. At a high price target of $10.00, the upside potential is 733%.
Mind Medicine is not expected to post any revenue in the fourth quarter nor in all of fiscal 2022. This is a purely speculative stock at this point. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration in late January cleared an investigational new drug dose-optimization trial of a treatment for generalized anxiety disorder.
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SAIC

Science Applications International Corp. (NYSE: SAIC) received 98% of its 2021 fiscal year revenue from federal government contracts. The company provides a variety of IT services to a number of federal agencies, including the military, NASA, the State Department and the Department of Homeland Security. After a terrible start that had the shares down more than 15% in late March of last year, the company’s share price is down by about 4% for the past 12 months.

There are 11 analyst ratings on the stock, and six of those are Buy or Strong Buy. At a share price of around $90.20, the upside potential based on a median price target of $103.00 is about 14.2%. At the high target of 115.00, the upside potential is 27.5%.

For the fourth quarter, the consensus estimates call for revenue of $1.77 billion, down 6.8% sequentially but up by 2.9% year over year. SAIC is expected to post adjusted EPS of $1.22, down 34.3% sequentially and by 26.9% year over year. For full fiscal 2022, which ended in January, the company is expected to report EPS of $6.93, up 10.6%, on sales of $7.38 billion, up 4.6%.

The stock trades at 13.0 times expected 2022 EPS, 12.9 times estimated 2023 earnings of $7.00 and 12 times 2024 earnings of $7.52 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $77.65 to $97.04. SAIC pays an annual dividend of $1.48 (yield of 1.64%). Total shareholder return for the past year was negative 3.3%.

Xpeng

China-based electric vehicle maker Xpeng Inc. (NYSE: XPEV) has seen its share price drop by about 23% over the past 12 months. Since its IPO in late August of 2020, however, the stock is up about 32.3%, a better return than Nio over the same period and a few points below the return for Li Auto. For the year to date, Xpeng is down about 44.3%, while Nio is off by about 32.3% and Li Auto is about 17% lower.

All 14 analysts covering the stock have a Buy (10) or Strong Buy (4) rating on the stock. At a share price of around $28.10, the upside potential based on a median price target of $58.52 is 108%. At the high price target of $92.27, the upside potential is 228%.

Fourth-quarter revenue is forecast at $1.16 billion, up 31% sequentially and down 59.3% year over year. The company’s adjusted loss per share is forecast at $0.30, compared to a per-share loss of $1.77 in the prior quarter. A year ago, Xpeng reported a loss per share of $1.05 in the December quarter. For the full 2021 fiscal year, the company is expected to post a loss per share of $0.84, compared with 2020’s loss of $1.11 per share, on sales of $3.24 billion, up 261.6%.

Xpeng is not expected to report a profit in 2021, 2022 or 2023. The stock’s price-to-enterprise value multiple this year is expected to be 5.6. For 2022, the multiple is estimated at 2.8 and, for 2023, the estimate is 1.8 times. The stock’s 52-week range is $18.01 to $56.45. Xpeng does not pay a dividend, and total shareholder return for the past year is negative 8.6%.

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