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Earnings Previews: Alcoa, CSX, Kinder Morgan, Tesla, United Airlines

Tesla
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Before markets opened on Tuesday, oilfield services giant Halliburton beat expectations on both the top and bottom lines, and the CEO made some upbeat statements about the future, though the company offered no specific guidance (as usual). Shares traded down about 2% in premarket trading.
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Johnson & Johnson posted better-than-expected earnings but missed on revenues. The company also cut earnings guidance. Shares traded down about 0.4% (that is the power of dividends in an inflationary period). Truist also beat the earnings estimate and missed on revenue. The stock was down about 0.7% in premarket trading Tuesday.

Lockheed Martin was another company that beat the earnings estimate but missed on revenue. The defense contractor reaffirmed fiscal year guidance, but the stock traded down by about 2% in Tuesday’s premarket.

We already have previewed three tech companies that report results late Tuesday or early Wednesday (ASML, IBM and Netflix) and three more also reporting March-quarter results before markets open Wednesday (Abbott Labs, Baker Hughes and Procter & Gamble).

Here are five companies scheduled to report results after markets close on Wednesday.

Alcoa

Aluminum producer and refiner Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) has added about 152% to its share price over the past 12 months, including a spike of 58% since the end of January. Aluminum prices hit an all-time high of around $3,800 per metric ton in early March, before falling to around $3,500 just two weeks later.

The London Metals Exchange (LME) has doubled its default fund to more than $2 billion, and aluminum prices continue to be at serious risk of rising again due to disruption in supply. Russia was the third-largest exporter of aluminum ($4.2 billion, nearly 9% of global exports) in 2020, trailing only Canada and the United Arab Emirates.


Only 13 analysts cover the stock, and seven of those have a Buy or Strong Buy rating on the stock. The others rate the shares at Hold. At a recent price of around $89.45 per share, the stock’s upside potential based on a median price target of $94.50 is just 5.6%. At the high target of $115.00, the upside potential is 28.6%.

First-quarter revenue is forecast to reach $3.48 billion, which would be up 4.1% sequentially and 21.3% higher year over year. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) are forecast at $2.88, up 15.2% sequentially and 265% higher year over year. For the full 2022 fiscal year, EPS are currently estimated to reach $12.16, up 78%, on revenue of $14.69 billion, up 20.9%.
Alcoa stock trades at 7.4 times expected 2022 EPS, 8.8 times estimated 2023 earnings of $10.12 and 13.1 times estimated 2024 earnings of $9.11. The stock’s 52-week range is $31.00 to $98.09. Alcoa pays an annual dividend of $0.10 (yield of 0.45%). Total shareholder return over the past year was 151.9%.
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CSX

Railroad operator CSX Corp. (NYSE: CSX) has added about 7% to its share price over the past 12 months, including a dip of 7.3% since the beginning of this year. U.S. rail traffic rose 5.7% last year, but so far in 2022, traffic has dipped by about 2.5%. Petroleum shipments are down 15.5% year over year, and motor vehicle shipments have dropped by 9.7%. Intermodal (shipping containers) shipments are down 6.6% compared to 2021.

Since reaching a year-to-date high in late March, CSX stock is down about 8.1%. Some analysts have noted that Americans are currently shifting their buying to services (e.g., travel, eating in restaurants) rather than purchasing goods.

Analysts remain bullish on the stock, with 18 of 27 giving the shares a Buy or Strong Buy rating and eight rating the stock at Hold. At a trading price of around $34.75, the upside potential to a median price target of $40.00 is 15.1%. At a high price target of $45, the upside potential rises to 29.5%.

For the first quarter of fiscal 2022, analysts have forecast revenue at $3.31 billion, down 3.5% sequentially but up 17.8% year over year. Adjusted EPS are forecast at $0.37, down nearly 11% sequentially and up by 19.4% year over year. For the full fiscal year, analysts currently forecast EPS of $1.79, up 14.6% year over year, and revenue of $14.05 billion, up 12.2%.

CSX stock trades at around 19.5 times expected 2022 EPS, 17.7 times estimated 2023 EPS of $1.96 and 16.2 times estimated 2024 earnings of $2.14 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $29.48 to $38.63. The company pays an annual dividend of $0.37 (yield of 1.15%). Total shareholder return over the past year is 6.9%.

Kinder Morgan

Energy infrastructure company Kinder Morgan Inc. (NYSE: KMI) has added more than 25% to its share price over the past 12 months The company generates just over two-thirds of its profits from moving natural gas through its pipelines. The pipelines are fully (or nearly so) committed. That is good for obvious reasons; it is not so good because it means Kinder Morgan must expand in order to grow, and rising interest rates and the lack of significant opportunities for expansion militate against growth. Generous dividends stand out during these inflationary days.
The growth issue probably contributes significantly to the lukewarm analyst outlook. Of 23 brokerages covering the company, 14 have Hold ratings on the stock, and just five have Buy or Strong Buy ratings. At a share price of around $19.60, the stock has outrun its median price target of $19.00. At the high price target of $242, the implied upside is 22.4%.
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Consensus estimates call for fourth-quarter revenue of $3.65 billion, down 17.5% sequentially and 27.8% year over year, and EPS of $0.27, up 1.6% sequentially but 105% lower year over year. For full fiscal 2022, analysts currently forecast EPS of $1.08, down 18%, on sales of $14.83 billion, down 10.7%.

The stock trades at 18.1 times expected 2022 EPS, 17.1 times estimated 2023 earnings of $1.14 and 15.9 times estimated 2024 earnings of $1.23. The stock’s 52-week range is $15.01 to $19.64. Kinder Morgan pays an annual dividend of $1.08 (yield of 5.52%). Total shareholder return over the past 12 months was 25.8%.

Tesla

Shares of Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) reached an all-time high last November. Since then, the stock price has dropped by about 18%. Even so, the shares are up about 36% over the past 12 months.

Tesla recently reported vehicle shipments of around 310,000 units for the first quarter, up sequentially, but short of expectations for deliveries of about 325,000. Coronavirus-related lockdowns in Shanghai hurt first-quarter deliveries, and the opening of a new assembly plant in Germany has yet to have any significant impact on shipments. Fortunately for Tesla, it continues to have enough pricing power to cover its increased costs.

Sentiment toward Tesla stock continues to tilt slightly to the downside. Of 35 analysts covering the stock, 17 have rated the shares a Buy or a Strong Buy, and nine rate the stock at Hold. Six rate the stock a Strong Sell, and three more have Sell ratings. At a share price of around $1,004, the implied upside based on a median price target of $1,064.00 is almost 6%. Based on a high price target of $1,580.00, the upside potential is 57.4%.

Analysts expect Tesla to post first-quarter revenue of $17.84 billion, up 0.7% sequentially and 71.7% year over year, and EPS $2.27, down 10.7% sequentially but up 144% year over year. For full fiscal 2022, current estimates call for EPS of $10.63, up 56.8%, on sales of $82.68 billion, up 53.6%.
Tesla stock trades at 94.5 times estimated 2022 EPS, 72.8 times estimated 2023 earnings of $13.80 and 61.7 times estimated 2024 earnings of $16.27. The stock’s 52-week range is $546.98 to $1,243.49. Tesla does not pay a dividend. Total shareholder return over the past year is 35.8%.
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United Airlines

U.S. airlines are facing rising fuel costs at the same time that consumer demand is booming. Airlines so far have been able to raise ticket prices because Americans apparently want to go somewhere, anywhere, after two years of restrictions. Over the past 12 months, shares of United Airlines Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: UAL) have fallen by about 21.3%. Rival Delta reported better-than-expected numbers last week that gave all airlines a shot in the arm. It is questionable whether United will add to the good news.

Analysts continue to be cautious on the stock. Of 22 brokerages covering the firm, eight have a Hold rating, while 10 give the stock a Buy or Strong Buy rating. There are also two Strong Sell ratings. At a share price of around $44, the upside potential based on a median price target of $54.00 is 22.7%. At the high price target of $78.00, the upside potential rises to 77.2%.


The consensus first-quarter revenue forecast calls for sales of $7.68 billion, down about 6.3% sequentially and up about 148% year over year. Analysts are forecasting an adjusted loss of $4.22 per share, worse than the $1.60 loss per share posted in the fourth quarter and much better than the $7.50 per share loss in the year-ago quarter. For the full 2022 fiscal year, analysts expect a loss per share of $3.03, much improved over last year’s $13.94 per share loss. Revenue is forecast to rise by 66.5% to $41.02 billion.

The stock trades at 6.8 times estimated 2023 earnings of $6.45 and 5.0 times estimated 2024 earnings of $8.88 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $30.54 to $60.59, and United does not pay a dividend. Total shareholder return for the past 12 months was negative 21.3%.

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