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Earnings Previews: American Airlines, AT&T, Freeport-McMoRan, NextEra Energy

Courtesy of NextEra Energy Resources via Facebook

Before markets opened on Tuesday, oilfield services giant Halliburton beat expectations on both the top and bottom lines, and the CEO made some upbeat statements about the future, though the company offered no specific guidance (as usual). Shares traded down about 2% in premarket trading.
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Johnson & Johnson posted better-than-expected earnings but missed on revenues. The company also cut earnings guidance. Shares traded down about 0.4% (that is the power of dividends in an inflationary period). Truist also beat the earnings estimate and missed on revenue. The stock was down about 0.7% in premarket trading Tuesday.

Lockheed Martin was another company that beat the earnings estimate but missed on revenue. The defense contractor reaffirmed fiscal year guidance, but the stock traded down by about 2% in Tuesday’s premarket.

We already have previewed three tech companies that report results late Tuesday or early Wednesday (ASML, IBM and Netflix) and three more also reporting March-quarter results before markets open Wednesday (Abbott Labs, Baker Hughes and Procter & Gamble). Plus, five notable earnings reports will be released after markets close Wednesday (Alcoa, CSX, Kinder Morgan, Tesla, United Airlines).

Here is what to expect from four companies expected to report results first thing Thursday morning.

American Airlines

Over the past 12 months, American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ: AAL) has seen its share price decline by more than 13%. Since its yearly high in early June of last year, the stock has dropped by 26%. The sharp increase in fuel costs since mid-February has been offset, however, by increased demand for tickets.

More than 35 million shares of American stock trade hands every day, as investors try to determine when sales will finally overcome rising costs. Add to that the labor shortage for flight crews and it is still anyone’s guess when American and other U.S. airlines will return to profitability.

Analysts are extremely cautious on American. Of 22 brokerages covering the stock, 14 have a Hold rating on the shares and just three have Buy ratings. At a recent price of around $19.10 a share, the stock price had outrun its median price target of $18.00. At the high target of $28, the upside potential is 46.6%.

First-quarter revenue is forecast at $8.82 billion, which would be down 6.5% sequentially but 120% higher year over year. American is expected to post a loss per share of $2.41, worse than the $1.42 loss per share in the prior quarter and much improved over last year’s third-quarter loss of $4.32 per share. For the full 2022 fiscal year, the company is currently expected to post a loss of $3.10, compared to the year-ago loss of $8.38, on revenue of $43.36 billion, up 45%.
American stock trades at 11.6 times estimated 2023 earnings of $1.65 and 4.8 times estimated 2024 earnings of $4.02 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $12.44 to $26.04. The company does not pay a dividend. The total return for the past 12 months was negative 11.3%.
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AT&T

Following a spike in early May of 2021, shares of AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) tumbled by 15.2%. The stock had dropped by nearly 30% as of mid-December, so maybe the company is turning things around.

AT&T completed its spin-off of Warner Media earlier this month and that has helped push shares higher, but the reason could be that now the telecom giant can stick to a business it knows and Warner Bros. Discovery can fend for itself. Investors who think the split will ultimately pay off by holding shares in both companies appear to have the upper hand right now. Time will tell.

Sentiment on the stock remains cool. Of 28 brokerages covering the stock, 14 have put a Hold rating while two more rate the shares at Sell. The rest have Buy or Strong Buy ratings. At a share price of around $19.50, the implied upside based on a median price target of $26.00 is 33%. At the high price target of $41.00, the upside potential is about 110%.

First-quarter revenue is forecast at $29.53 billion, down 27.9% sequentially and 32.8% year over year. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) are forecast at $0.69, down 11.9% sequentially and 19.8% year over year. For full fiscal 2022, EPS are expected to come in at $2.46, down 27.6%, on sales of $122.01 billion, down about 27.8%. Comparisons to last year include Warner totals.

AT&T stock trades at 7.9 times expected 2022 EPS, 7.6 times estimated 2023 earnings of $2.56 and 7.9 times estimated 2024 earnings of $2.46. The stock’s 52-week range is $18.85 to $33.88. AT&T’s current annual dividend is $1.11 (yield of 5.68%). Total shareholder return for the past 12 months was negative 7.3%.

Freeport-McMoRan

Over the past 12 months, shares of copper and gold miner Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE: FCX) had added more than 34%. Both gold and copper have fallen from their recent peaks of early March, but copper remains about 15% higher over the past 12 months and gold is up 8.5% for the same period.

A recent forecast from Goldman Sachs expects stockpiles of copper to be exhausted by the end of the year. As with all commodities, though, even if that happens, not Freeport nor any other commodity producer can ramp up a multiyear project in just a few months to take advantage of skyrocketing prices.
Of 20 analysts covering Freeport stock, 12 have a Buy or Strong Buy rating on the shares and six more have a Hold rating. At a share price of around $50.80, the stock has outrun its median price target of $51.00. At the high price target of $65.00, the upside potential reaches 28%.
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First-quarter revenue is forecast at $6.28 billion, which would be 1.9% higher sequentially and up 29.5% year over year. Adjusted EPS are forecast at $0.89, down 7.4% sequentially and 94% higher year over year. For full fiscal 2022, analysts are expecting EPS of $3.78, up 20.8%, on sales of $26.73 billion, up 17%.

The stock trades at 13.4 times expected 2022 EPS, 15.3 times estimated 2023 earnings of $3.31 and 15.8 times estimated 2024 earnings of $3.22. The stock’s 52-week range is $30.02 to $51.99. The company pays an annual dividend of $0.30 (yield of 1.18%). Total shareholder return for the past 12 months was 37.4%.

NextEra Energy

Shares of regulated electricity company NextEra Energy Inc. (NYSE: NEE) have risen by about 2.4% over the past 12 months. The Florida-based utility is the world’s largest producer of electricity using solar and wind energy and, in January, it reported a backlog of 16,600 megawatts of renewable energy projects. The company said that threatened federal tariffs on low-cost imported solar panels are not expected to have any effect on NextEra’s long-term financial outlook.

A NextEra subsidiary has pleaded guilty to killing at least 150 bald eagles and will pay a fine of $8 million and spend another $27 million to minimize the number of eagles killed by its wind turbine projects.

Of the 20 ratings on NextEra stock, 15 are Buy or Strong Buy. Another four analysts rate the stock at Hold. At a share price of around $81.50, the upside potential based on a median price target of $94.00 is about 15.3%. At the high price target of $107.00, the implied gain is 31.3%.

First-quarter revenue is forecast to come in at $5.32 billion, up 5.48% sequentially and 42.6% year over year. Adjusted EPS are forecast at $0.72, up nearly 75% sequentially and 7.5% year over year. For the full 2022 fiscal year, current estimates call for EPS of $2.82, up 10.6%, on sales of $22.21 billion, up 30.1%.


NextEra shares trade at a multiple of 28.9 times expected 2022 EPS, 26.7 times estimated 2023 earnings of $3.05, and 24.9 times estimated 2024 earnings of $3.27 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $69.79 to $93.73, and NextEra pays an annual dividend of $1.54 (yield of 2.09%). Total shareholder return over the past 12 months was 4.2%.

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