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Earnings Previews: Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Phillips 66, Weyerhauser

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Between the time markets closed on Tuesday and before they opened again on Wednesday, more than 600 U.S.-listed firms reported quarterly results. We have included quick takes on some of these stocks in earlier reports.

After markets close Wednesday, seven firms we have covered in our previews will report results: Ford, Meta Platforms, PayPal and Qualcomm, as well as Altria, Las Vegas Sands and Sirius XM.
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Companies reporting before Thursday’s opening bell will include Caterpillar, Peabody Energy and Southwest Airlines, as well as Comcast, McDonald’s and Twitter.

We have previewed results due Thursday afternoon from Amazon, Apple and Robinhood, as well as from Intel, Roku and U.S. Steel. These reports also include roundups of the most recent quarterly results.

Here is a look at four resource-focused companies expected to report results before markets open on Friday.

Chevron

Over the past 12 months, shares of Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) have risen by more than 62%, including a drop of about 9.8% from an all-time high in just seven trading sessions. Since peaking at around $124 a barrel in March, the price has dropped to about $100 (a dip of 19.4%). Investors and analysts are going to want to hear about production increases, share buybacks and dividend hikes. It is salad days for the energy giants now, and people will be looking for signs of when the rocket will come back to earth.

Analysts’ sentiment has cooled somewhat since Chevron reported fourth-quarter earnings in January. Of 28 brokerages covering the shares, 16 (compared to 22 in January) have a Buy or Strong Buy rating on the stock and 11 (up from the earlier eight) Hold ratings. At a recent price of around $157 a share, the upside potential based on a median price target of $184 is 17.2%. At the high price target of $213, the upside potential is 35.7%.


First-quarter revenue is forecast at $54.96 billion, up 14.2% sequentially and 68.5% higher year over year. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) are forecast at $3.44, up 34.3% sequentially and up a whopping 282% year over year. For the full 2022 year, analysts currently expect Chevron to post EPS of $15.54, up 91.2%, on revenue of $226.26 billion, up 39.3%.

Chevron stock trades at 10.1 times expected 2022 EPS, 11.5 times estimated 2023 earnings of $13.74 and 13 times estimated 2024 earnings of $12.08 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $92.86 to $174.76. Chevron pays an annual dividend of $5.68 (yield of 3.61%). Total shareholder return for the past 12 months was 61%.

Exxon Mobil

Shares of Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) have risen by about 61% over the past 12 months. Since a recent low in mid-December, the stock has gained 45.2%. Everything we said earlier about Chevron is at work for Exxon as well. An added issue for both these integrated giants and their independent producer rivals is the threat of a slowdown in China’s economy due to the country’s No-COVID policy and ensuing lockdowns. An end to the Russian invasion of Ukraine would send crude prices lower as well.
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Of 27 analysts covering the stock, 17 rate the shares at Hold, five have a Strong Buy rating and four more rate the shares at Buy. At a share price of around $84.80, the upside potential based on a median price target of $95 is 12%. At the high target of $120, the upside potential is nearly 41.5%.

First-quarter revenue is forecast at $83.57 billion, down 1.6% sequentially but 46.4% higher year over year. Adjusted EPS are pegged at $2.23, up 8.7% sequentially and 243% year over year. For full fiscal 2022, current estimates call for EPS of $9.38, up 74.3%, on sales of $366.4 billion, up almost 28.3%.

Exxon shares trade at 9.0 times expected 2022 EPS, 10.1 times estimated 2023 earnings of $8.34 and 11.0 times estimated 2024 earnings of $7.72 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $52.10 to $91.50, and Exxon pays an annual dividend of $3.52 (yield of 4.28%). Total shareholder return for the past 12 months was 58.4%.

Phillips 66

Typically, when oil prices rise, refiners’ stocks decline because their input costs rise. A lot of that can be passed along to consumers, but not all of it. Over the past 12 months, with crude oil up 62%, Chevron stock is up 62.0%, Exxon stock is up 60.5% and shares of Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX) are up about 14.4%. Because crude prices have been relatively low over the past 10 years, Phillips 66 shares are up almost 230%, compared with a rise of 124% in Chevron stock and 49.5% in Exxon stock.

Analysts remain mostly bullish on the stock, with 14 of 17 brokerages assigning a Buy or Strong Buy rating and the other three having a Hold rating. At a share price of around $83.70, the upside potential based on a median price target of $100.50 is 20.1%. At the high price target of $119, the upside potential is 42.2%.
The consensus estimate for first-quarter revenue is $34.86 billion, up 3.8% sequentially and 59.0% higher year over year. Adjusted EPS are forecast at $1.26, down 57.2% sequentially but up 265% year over year. For full fiscal 2022, analysts are looking for EPS of $8.17, up 43.4%, and revenue of $140.56 billion, up 22.4%.
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Phillips 66 stock trades at 10.2 times expected 2022 EPS, 10.2 times estimated 2023 earnings of $8.20 and 9.1 times estimated 2024 earnings of $9.19 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $63.19 to $94.34. Phillips 66 pays an annual dividend of $3.68 (yield of 4.49%). Total shareholder return for the past 12 months was 12.1%.

Weyerhaeuser

Lumber and wood products giant Weyerhaeuser Co. (NYSE: WY) saw its stock sink to a 52-week low in mid-July before rising to an all-time high last week. Lumber prices have come off their own August low but are still about 50% below their May 2021 high. Weyerhaeuser is among the world’s largest forest landowners and the company keeps buying more. It is also worth noting that Weyerhaeuser is a real estate investment trust and must pay out 90% of its earnings as a dividend.

Analysts show little interest in Weyerhaeuser. Just 10 cover the stock, and of those, eight have rated the stock a Buy or Strong Buy. The other two have Hold ratings. At a share price of around $41.40, the implied upside based on a median price target of $45 is about 8.7%. At the high target of $50, the implied upside is 20.8%.

Revenue for the first quarter of fiscal 2022 is forecast at $2.99 billion, up 35.7% sequentially and 19.1% year over year. Adjusted EPS are forecast at $1.23, up 150.2% sequentially and 35.0% higher year over year. For the full fiscal year, EPS are forecast at $2.80, down 17.1% year over year, on sales of $9.93 billion, down 2.3%.


Weyerhaeuser shares trade at 14.8 times expected 2022 earnings, 23.5 times estimated 2023 earnings of $1.77 and 17.8 times estimated 2024 earnings of $2.32. The stock trades in a 52-week range of $32.65 to $43.04. The company pays an annual dividend of $0.72 (yield of 1.76%). Total shareholder return for the past 12 months was 12.6%.

 

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