Investing
Earnings Previews: BP, Marathon Petroleum, Paramount Global, Pfizer
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After markets closed on Thursday, Amazon missed analysts’ consensus estimates for both profit and revenue. The company also noted that incremental costs will rise another $4 billion in the current quarter, on top of a $6 billion increase in the first quarter. Shares traded down more than 12% in mid-morning action Friday.
Apple beat estimates on both the top and bottom lines. Supply chain issues are expected to nick $4 billion to $8 billion off current-quarter sales, but the company did not provide specific guidance. The March quarter was Apple’s best ever for iPhone and Services revenue. The stock traded down less than 1% Friday morning.
Robinhood missed analysts’ estimates on both the top and bottom lines, and shares traded down more than 1% on Friday. Monthly active users declined and cryptocurrency trading was down substantially.
Intel beat both top-line and bottom-line estimates, but shares traded more than 5% lower Friday morning.
Roku posted positive surprises on both per-share losses and revenues. Second-quarter guidance was below consensus estimates, but the company reaffirmed full-year guidance. Shares traded about 7% higher Friday morning.
U.S. Steel beat the consensus estimate for earnings per share (EPS) but missed on revenue. The company expects the current quarter to be its best ever, with better earnings, higher free cash flow and increased shareholder returns. Shares traded up more than 2% Friday morning.
Before Friday’s opening bell, Chevron reported that it missed analysts’ consensus estimates for both the top and bottom lines. U.S. crude oil production rose 10% year over year in the first quarter, and worldwide production reached just over 3 million barrels of crude daily. The stock traded down almost 2% in mid-morning trading Friday.
Exxon Mobil also missed the consensus EPS estimate but revenue soared by 53% year over year. The company increased its stock buyback program to a new total of $30 billion through 2023. Shares traded down less than 1%.
Phillips 66 shares traded up fractionally after the country’s largest refiner beat EPS estimates and said it had recommenced its share buyback program on March 31.
Weyerhaeuser beat estimates on both the top and bottom lines. The company’s outlook was mixed, with its timber harvesting division expected to be significantly lower in the second quarter while the products division is expected to generate higher year-over-year revenue. Shares traded down almost 1%.
Shares of integrated oil giant BP PLC (NYSE: BP) have performed well over the past year but trail far behind Chevron and Exxon, which are up 62% and 61%, respectively. BP’s 12-month increase was just below 20%. A massive $24 billion charge against first-quarter results for shedding the company’s 19.75% stake in Russian oil giant Rosneft squashed any gains the stock may have made. Since February 18, Chevron stock is up more than 20%, while BP shares are down about 7.6%. High crude oil prices and an expected boost in the stock buyback program could limit the damage.
Of 22 brokerages covering the fossil-fuel giant, 16 have a Buy or Strong Buy rating and the others rate the shares at Hold. At a recent price of around $29.50 a share, the implied upside to a median price target of $36.50 is 23.7%. At the high price target of $49, the upside potential is 66.1%.
The consensus estimate for first-quarter revenue is $53.2 billion, which would be up 5.4% sequentially and 54.0% higher year over year. Adjusted EPS are forecast at $1.37, up 11.3% sequentially and up a stupendous 954% year over year. For the 2022 fiscal year, analysts expect BP to report EPS of $5.627, up 46.3%, on sales of $208.35 million, up 32.1%.
BP stock trades at 0.9 times expected 2022 EPS, 0.9 times estimated 2023 of $5.31 and 1.0 times estimated 2024 EPS of $4.89. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $22.64 to $34.16. BP pays an annual dividend of $1.30 (yield of 4.42%). Total shareholder return for the past year was 19.7%.
Oil refiner and marketer Marathon Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: MPC) posted an all-time high share price last week and has had a stock price gain of nearly 68% over the past year. That is a far larger increase than rival Phillips 66’s 17% gain. Even with high input (crude oil) prices, demand for refined products is strong, and the big refiners can make a profit where they were once stymied by crude prices. The question now is who will remain standing once the music stops.
Of 17 brokerages covering Marathon, 15 have a Buy or Strong Buy rating and the rest rate the stock at Hold. At a share trading price of around $89.25, the stock’s upside potential based on a median price target of $96 is about 7.6%. At the high target of $115, the upside potential is 28.9%.
First-quarter revenue is forecast at $32.46 billion, down 8.8% sequentially but up about 41.9% year over year. Analysts are estimating EPS of $1.28, compared to a loss of $0.20 in the year-ago quarter. For the full 2022 fiscal year, the consensus estimates call for EPS of $7.37, up 200%, on revenue of 139.12 billion, up 15%.
Marathon Petroleum’s stock trades at 12.1 times expected 2022 EPS, 14.2 times estimated 2023 earnings of $6.27 and 13.6 times estimated 2024 earnings of $6.55 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $50.19 to $93.168. Marathon pays an annual dividend of $2.32 (yield of 2.59%). Total shareholder return for the past 12 months was 64.6%.
Media giant Paramount Global (NASDAQ: PARA) was known as ViacomCBS until February. Perhaps the company hoped that a new name would reverse the share price decline of around 31% before the change. It might have helped a little, as shares are down 26% over the past 12 months. Following Netflix’s quarterly report, Paramount and every other streaming media company became collateral damage. Now the company has to demonstrate that it has a growth plan for its streaming business and some way to stop the bleeding in the cable business.
Analysts are mildly optimistic, with 11 of 27 giving the stock a Buy or Strong Buy rating and 12 rating the shares at Hold. At a share price of around $29.40, the upside potential to the median price target of $36 is about 22.5%. At the high price target of $60, the upside potential is 104%.
Paramount is expected to post first-quarter revenue of $7.39 billion, down 7.7% sequentially and just 0.2% lower year over year. Adjusted EPS are forecast at $0.52, down 86.8% sequentially and nearly 66% lower year over year. For full fiscal 2022, analysts are looking for EPS of $2.69, down 22.6% year over year, on revenue of $30.7 billion, up 7.4%.
The stock trades at 11.0 times expected 2022 EPS, 13.1 times estimated 2023 earnings of $2.26 and 10.9 times estimated 2024 earnings of $2.71 per share. Paramount’s 52-week range is $27.25 to $47.45. The company pays an annual dividend of $0.96 (yield of 3.3%). Total shareholder return for the past 12 months was negative 27.4%.
Dow Jones industrial average component Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) has had a share price gain of more than 32% over the past 12 months, and shares reached an all-time high in mid-December. Since then, the shares have dropped more than 18%.
Its Paxlovid treatment for COVID-19, which was approved last quarter, is now being questioned regarding relapses among some patients who completed the five-day course of treatment. Pfizer and partner BioNTech have submitted an application to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for a vaccine booster for children ages 5 through 11.
Of 23 analysts covering the stock, 14 rate the stock at Hold and nine have a Buy or Strong Buy rating. At a share price of around $49.40, the upside potential based on a median price target of $57 is 15.4%. At the high target of $76, the upside potential is 53.8%.
Pfizer stock trades at 6.9 times expected 2022 EPS, 9.0 times estimated 2023 earnings of $5.46 and 11.0 times estimated 2023 earnings of $4.51 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $37.96 to $61.71. Pfizer pays an annual dividend of $1.60 (yield of 3.27%). Total shareholder return for the past 12 months was 32.7%.
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