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Earnings Previews: Coinbase, Kinross Gold, Occidental Petroleum, SoFi Technologies
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Premarket trading on Monday was not looking good for bulls. Equities were down by as much as 2.5% (Nasdaq Composite). Crude oil traded down about 2.7%, and gold traded down about 1.3%. Could be that investors are honing their chops for Wednesday’s consumer price index (CPI) report. The index is expected to rise by 0.2% and core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is expected to jump by 0.4%. These estimates are lower than last month’s actual readings, indicating that economists believe inflation has peaked. If that turns out to be a bad guess, stocks are likely to be pounded when the markets open Wednesday.
Before markets opened on Monday, Palantir Technologies missed analysts’ consensus earnings estimate and barely beat the consensus revenue estimate. The really bad news, however, was downside revenue guidance for the current quarter. The stock traded down about 9% in premarket action.
Beauty products giant Coty reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue for the firm’s fiscal third quarter. Coty also raised full-year earnings per share (EPS) guidance to a new range of $0.23 to $0.27. The stock traded up about 0.3%.
Fuel cell maker Ballard Power missed estimates on both the top and bottom lines. Shares traded down about 3% in the premarket session.
Lordstown Motors had no revenue, as expected, and posted a wider-than-forecast per share loss. The stock traded down 6.8%.
Tyson Foods blew past the per-share earnings estimate and also topped the consensus revenue estimate. Shares traded up about 2.8% in Monday’s premarket session.
We already have previewed five companies set to report results after markets close Monday or before they open on Tuesday: AMC Entertainment, Cronos, Hecla Mining, Li Auto and Peloton.
Since its initial public offering in mid-April of last year, shares of Coinbase Global Inc. (NASDAQ: COIN) have lost more than 68% of their value. Last week, the company opened up its NFT trading program after a limited launch two weeks before. It was not a roaring success. Since that April launch, Coinbase’s NFT marketplace had about 1,287 users and a dollar volume of nearly $669,000. During the same period, NFT marketplace leader Open Sea counted 350,000 users with a dollar volume of almost $3.5 billion. Coinbase’s NFT play has been widely declared to be a flop.
Of 25 analysts covering Coinbase stock, 19 have a Buy or Strong Buy rating on the shares, and another four rate the stock at Hold. At a recent price of around $103.75 a share, the upside potential based on a median price target of $254.00 is almost 145%. At the high target of $500.00, the upside potential at the current price is about 382%.
For the first quarter of 2022, the consensus revenue estimate is $1.48 billion, which would be down by about 41% sequentially and 17.8% lower year over year. Adjusted EPS are forecast at $0.86, down nearly 75% sequentially and about 72% year over year. For the full year, analysts expect EPS of $4.04, down 76.4%, on sales of $6.87 billion, down 12.4%.
The stock trades at 25.7 times expected 2022 EPS, 18.8 times estimated 2023 earnings of $5.51 and 19.9 times estimated 20243 earnings of $5.21 per share. The stock has a 52-week trading range of $100.25 to $368.90, and the low was posted last Friday. Shares were down more than 6% in Monday’s premarket. Coinbase does not pay a dividend, and total shareholder return for the past year was negative 59.6%.
Over the past 12 months, while the price of gold has increased by about 1.4%, shares of miner Kinross Gold Corp. (NYSE: KGC) have fallen by more than 31%. The company sold its Russian assets for $680 million in early April, most of which will be paid in installments stretching out to 2027. Kinross is the fifth-largest gold producer in 2020, digging up 2.38 million ounces of the yellow metal, about 40% of the amount produced by global leader Newmont. Two weeks ago, the company sold its 90% stake in Ghana’s Chirano mine for $225 million.
Analysts are mostly bullish on Kinross stock, with 12 of 17 brokerages having a Buy or Strong Buy rating, while the rest rate the stock at Hold. At a share price of around $4.90, the upside potential based on a median price target of $7.38 is about 50.6%. At the high price target of $9.75, the upside potential is nearly 99%.
Kinross stock trades at 10.6 times expected 2022 earnings, 9.4 times estimated 2023 earnings of $0.53 and 12.3 times estimated 2024 earnings of $0.40 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $4.83 to $8.34. The company pays an annual dividend of $0.12 (yield of 2.44%). Total shareholder return for the past year was negative 33.9%.
Like virtually every other oil producer, shares of Occidental Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: OXY) have posted a big gain (141%) over the past 12 months, thanks to the soaring cost of crude. The stock saw a boost last Friday following the news that Berkshire Hathaway acquired about $350 million worth of Oxy stock to lift Warren Buffett’s stake in the company to 15.2%. Buffett also owns 100,000 shares of Oxy preferred stock, which he received for contributing $10 billion to Oxy’s purchase of Anadarko in 2020. Those preferred shares also come with a coupon of 8%.
Of 26 brokerages covering the stock, 12 rate the shares at Hold and 12 have Buy or Strong Buy ratings. At a share price of around $64.90, the upside potential based on a median price target of $70.50 is 8.6%. At the high price target of $90.00, the upside potential is 38.7%.
First-quarter revenue is forecast at $8.06 billion, up 0.6% sequentially and 47.1% higher year over year. Adjusted EPS are pegged at $2.03, up 37.2% sequentially and up from a loss per share of $0.15 last year. For full fiscal 2022, analysts currently expect Oxy to report EPS of $9.12, up 258%, on revenue of $33.88 billion, up 28.7%.
The stock trades at 7.1 times expected 2022 EPS, 10.1 times estimated 2023 earnings of $6.40 and 14.2 times estimated 2024 earnings of $4.57 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $21.62 to $64.98, and the high was posted last Friday. Occidental has raised its annual dividend from $0.04 per share to $0.13 (yield of 0.8%). Total shareholder return for the past year is 144.5%.
Decentralized financial services firm SoFi Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: SOFI) has posted a share price drop of around 58.6% over the past 12 months, and down nearly 72% since its SPAC IPO in June of last year. While the company’s sales are improving fairly quickly, profits are rising more slowly. Because its primary business is lending, higher interest rates should help, provided consumers remain willing to spend.
Of 14 analysts covering the stock, eight have a Buy rating and the other six have a Hold rating. At a share price of around $6.40, the upside potential based on a median price target of $14.00 is about 118.8%. At the high target of $22.00, the upside potential is almost 244%.
SoFi is not expected to post a profit in 2022 or 2023. The enterprise value-to-sales multiple is expected to be 5.7 in 2022, 3.9 in 2023 and 3.0 in 2024. The stock’s 52-week range is $6.01 to $24.95, and SoFi does not pay a dividend. Total shareholder return for the past year is negative 57.1%
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