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Earnings Previews: CrowdStrike, Lululemon, Okta

Lululemon store
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The three major U.S. equity indexes closed lower Tuesday. The Nasdaq dipped by 0.4%, the S&P 500 slipped by 0.6% and the Dow Jones industrials fell 0.7%. Crude oil made a run at $120 a barrel but failed, closing below $115. Oil traded up about 1.2% in Wednesday’s premarket session. A timber real estate investment trust (REIT) merger that creates a $5 billion lumber company and the all-stock $6.7 billion Gold Fields acquisition of Yamana may herald a new round of consolidation in commodities in general. Mergers or acquisitions are a lot cheaper than finding and developing new mines.

Before markets opened on Tuesday, Salesforce beat the earnings per share (EPS) and revenue estimates but issued downside guidance for the current quarter. The stock traded up more than 14% early Wednesday.

ChargePoint missed the consensus estimate for a loss per share but beat the revenue estimate handily. Shares were looking for direction Wednesday morning.

HP also beat on the top and bottom lines. The company issued in-line guidance for the current quarter and the 2022 fiscal year as well. Shares traded up about 2% Wednesday morning.

Nordic American Tankers posted a larger-than-expected loss per share and missed the consensus revenue estimate by a mile. The stock dumped nearly 11% on Tuesday but was up marginally early Wednesday.

After markets close Wednesday, we shall hear results from specialty retailers Chewy and GameStop, along with three tech companies: Hewlett Packard Enterprises, Pure Storage and UiPath.

Here is a look at three firms scheduled to release quarterly results after markets close Thursday.

CrowdStrike

Cloud security platform maker CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: CRWD) has seen its share price decline by about 28% over the past 12 months. The stock posted its 52-week low last month and its high in early November. Since then, shares are down by around 45%.

Even though the past year’s performance is worse than that of the Nasdaq 100, analysts are even more convinced that CrowdStrike is going to come up strong. Of 31 brokerages covering the firm, all but one have given the shares a Buy or Strong Buy rating.

At a recent share price of around $160.00, the upside potential based on a median price target of $242.50 is 51.6%. At the high price target of $305.00, the upside potential is 90.6%.


First-quarter fiscal 2023 revenue is forecast at $464.35 million, which would be up 7.7% sequentially and 53.3% higher year over year. Adjusted EPS are forecast at $0.23, down 22.4% sequentially but up 130.0% year over year. For the full fiscal year ending in January, analysts expect CrowdStrike to report EPS of $1.10, up 64.3%, on sales of $2.15 billion, up 48.4%.

CrowdStrike stock trades at 145.4 times expected 2023 EPS, 97.1 times estimated 2024 earnings of $1.65 and 69.7 times estimated 2025 earnings of $2.30 per share. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $130.00 to $298.48. CrowdStrike does not pay a dividend. Total shareholder return for the past year is negative 28%.

Lululemon Athletica

Lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ: LULU) has posted a share price decline of about 9.4% over the past 12 months. Since posting a 52-week high in mid-November, the shares dropped to a new 52-week low last week and are down 38% since that high. First-quarter results are expected to beat the company’s guidance for EPS and revenue despite having to deal with relatively poor sales conditions (inflation, etc.) over the final month of the quarter.

Of 30 brokerages covering the company, 19 have a Buy or Strong Buy rating and nine more have Hold ratings. At a share price of around $292.70, the upside potential based on a median price target of $435.00 is 48.6%. At the high price target of $541.00, the upside potential is 84.8%.

First-quarter fiscal 2023 revenue is forecast at $1.55 billion, down 27.4% sequentially but up 17.9% year over year. Adjusted EPS are forecast at $1.43, down 57.5% sequentially and 23.3% higher year over year. For the full fiscal year ending in January, analysts expect Lululemon to report EPS of $9.35, up 20%, on sales of $7.58 billion, up 21.2%.

Lululemon stock trades at 31.3 times expected 2023 EPS, 26.5 times estimated 2024 earnings of $11.05 and 23 times estimated 2025 earnings of $12.75 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $251.51 to $485.82. CrowdStrike does not pay a dividend. Total shareholder return for the past year is negative 9.4%.

Okta

Enterprise software company Okta Inc. (NASDAQ: OKTA) has seen its share price sink by nearly 63% over the past 12 months. A data breach in January to one of Okta’s support sub-contractors has unleashed the expected storm of lawsuits. As it turns out, apparently just two Okta customers were affected, but the company’s failure to deal with the breach in a timely and efficient way had the company’s CEO continuing to defend the firm as recently as last week.

Okta came public just over five years ago and while it has consistently beaten EPS estimates, it has posted a profit in only three of 20 quarters. The company needs to do better than that.

Of 30 analysts covering the stock, 24 rate the shares a Buy or Strong Buy, and the other six have Hold ratings. At a share price of around $83.10, the implied upside on the stock based on a median price target of $195.00 is about 135%. At the high price target of $290.00, the upside potential is nearly 250%.


First-quarter revenue is forecast at $388.77 million, up 1.5% sequentially and 54.9% year over year. Okta is expected to post a loss per share of $0.34 for the quarter, 16 cents worse than the prior quarter’s loss and 24 cents worse than the year-ago loss. For full fiscal 2023, ending in January, analysts are looking for a loss per share of $1.24, compared with a year-ago loss of $0.46 per share, on sales of $1.78 billion, up 37%.

Okta is not expected to post a profit in 2023 or 2024. The multiple for estimated 2025 earnings of $0.85 per share is 96.2. The stock’s 52-week range is $77.01 to $276.30, and Okta does not pay a dividend. Total shareholder return for the past year is negative 62.7%.

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