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Earnings Previews: Compass, IonQ, Tencent Music

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The three major U.S. equity indexes closed mixed on Thursday. The Dow Jones industrials added 0.08% while the S&P 500 slipped by 0.07% and the Nasdaq fell 0.58%. Just five of 11 sectors ended the day higher, led by energy (3.4%) and financials (1.2%). The producer price index fell by half a point month over month but remains up 9.8% year over year, perhaps indicating that wage and job growth have not yet run their course. In Friday’s premarket session, all three indexes were trading up by around 0.3%.

After markets closed Thursday, Rivian Automotive beat the consensus loss-per-share estimate by a penny and surpassed the revenue estimate. The electric pickup and SUV maker reiterated production estimates for 2022 of 25,000 and said it had received 98,000 preorders for its R1 SUV. Shares were trading down about 0.7% in Friday’s premarket.

Payoneer Global beat both top-line and bottom-line estimates and raised full-year revenue guidance. Shares traded about 20% higher in premarket action.

Toast also beat estimates on both the top and bottom lines. The company raised third-quarter and full-year revenue guidance. Shares traded up about 13%.

ESS Tech hammered the consensus revenue estimate of $380,000, reporting quarterly revenue of $686,000 and a net loss per share of $0.10, much better than the forecast loss of $0.15. Shares traded up more than 7% Friday.

Illumina missed both earnings and revenue estimates, topping off a poor report by lowering profit and revenue estimates for the full year. Shares traded down about 15% in Friday’s premarket.

After U.S. markets close on Friday and before they open on Monday, Bitfarms, Li Auto and Sundial Growers will be reporting results.

Here is a look at three firms scheduled to report quarterly results after markets close Monday.

Compass

Online real-estate brokerage Compass Inc. (NYSE: COMP) posted its 52-week high in mid-August of last year and has been on a steep downward path ever since. The stock sunk to its 52-week low in late June, down 79% for the period. Four straight quarterly revenue decreases, though higher year over year, have fueled investors’ dash for the exits. Operating cash flow has fallen in those four quarters as well. At the very least, a solid turnaround plan had better be in the offing.

Of eight brokerages covering the firm, five have a Buy or Strong Buy rating and the others have Hold ratings. At a recent price of around $4.65 a share, the upside potential based on a median price target of $7.00 is 50.5%. At the high price target of $8.50, the upside potential is nearly 83%.

Second-quarter revenue is forecast at $2.1 billion, which would be up 50.8% sequentially and by 8.2% year over year. Analysts have forecast a loss per share of $0.01, compared to break-even prior and year-ago quarters. For the 2022 fiscal year, current estimates call for a loss per share of $0.61, down from a loss of $1.38 per share in 2021, on sales of $7.54 billion, up about 17.4%.

Compass is not expected to post a profit until 2024. The stock trades at an enterprise value to sales multiple of 0.3 for 2022. The multiple for both 2023 and 2024 is 0.2. The stock’s 52-week range is $3.31 to $17.70, and the company does not pay a dividend. Total shareholder return in the past year was negative 71.6%.

IonQ

Quantum computer maker IonQ Inc. (NYSE: IONQ) watched its stock soar by about 240% in the six weeks after its October 2021 SPAC merger was completed. The company raised some $636 million in the deal at a market cap of $2 billion. After dropping more than a third since its launch day price, the company’s market cap has dropped to $1.2 billion.

Since its post-launch low in mid-May, however, shares are up about 27.5%. Growth forecasts are far better than the stock price indicates, but recent economic events have not favored growth stocks. Here’s a recent look at a handful of publicly traded quantum computing companies.

Just five analysts cover the stock and four have a Buy or Strong Buy rating. The stock trades at around $6.30, implying an upside potential of 90.5% based on a median price target of $12.00. At the high target of $15.00, the upside potential is about 138%.


Second-quarter revenue is forecast at $2.39 million, up 22.5% sequentially. The company is expected to post an adjusted loss per share of $0.08, compared to a loss per share of $0.09 in the prior quarter. For the full year, the net loss per share is forecast at $0.30 on revenue of $10.64 million, up more than 400% year over year.

IonQ is not expected to post a profit in 2021, 2022 or 2023. The enterprise value to sales multiple for 2022 is estimated at 74.3 times sales, 41.7 times estimated 2023 sales of $18.99 million and 15.0 times estimated 2024 sales of $52.87 million. The company does not pay a dividend and the total shareholder return for the past year was negative 39.3%.

Tencent Music

Tencent Music Entertainment Group Inc. (NYSE: TME) is China’s largest online music entertainment platform and a subsidiary of Tencent Holdings, which also owns WeChat. Over the past year, the share price has dropped by about 58.6%. That is a big improvement over the 87% dip recorded a week before Tencent Music reported first-quarter results. That surprise beat sent the stock to its 52-week high. Like many other Chinese companies with U.S. listings, Tencent Music has benefited from a looser regulatory environment this year.

Enthusiasm for the company’s stock is no better than mediocre. Only eight of 20 analysts have a Buy or Strong Buy rating, while 10 others rate the shares at Hold. At a share price of around $4.40, the potential upside based on a median price target of $5.26 is about 19.5%. At the high target of $7.95, the implied upside is 80.7%.

Analysts expect the company to post second-quarter revenue of $989.25 million, down 5.6% sequentially and 25.3% lower year over year. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) are pegged at $0.08, down a penny sequentially and 20% lower year over year. For the full 2022 fiscal year, EPS is forecast at $0.33, down 15.8%, on revenue of $4.05 billion, down 17.5%.

The stock trades at 13.5 times expected 2022 EPS, 12.5 times estimated 2023 earnings of $0.35 and 11.4 times estimated 2024 earnings of $0.39 per share. Tencent Music’s 52-week range is $2.95 to $10.38. The company does not pay a dividend. Total shareholder return over the past 12 months was negative 57.9%.

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