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Earnings Previews: American Express, Chevron, Intel, Visa

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In early trading Wednesday, the Dow Jones industrials traded down 0.85%, the S&P 500 down 1.07% and the Nasdaq down 1.61%.

After U.S. markets closed Tuesday, Microsoft reported earnings per share (EPS) that beat the consensus estimate by a penny and missed on revenue. On the conference call, the company said it expects Azure revenue to decline by 4% to 5% in the current quarter. Shares traded down 3.7% shortly after Wednesday’s opening bell.

Texas Instruments missed the consensus EPS estimate by a penny and posted a slightly better-than-expected revenue total. The chipmaker also issued in-line guidance for first-quarter EPS and revenue. Shares traded down about 2.2%.

Before markets opened on Wednesday, ASML reported quarterly results that beat estimates on both the top and bottom lines. For the current quarter, the semiconductor equipment maker guided revenue in line with expectations. For fiscal 2023, ASML issued guided revenue 25% above the consensus estimate and said it expects to raise its dividend by 5.5%. Shares traded down 1.7%, likely because the beat and the outlook were not big enough.

AT&T beat the EPS consensus estimate but missed on revenue and issued downside guidance for fiscal 2023 earnings. The stock traded up by about 6% Wednesday morning.

Boeing missed estimates on both the top and bottom lines. The company reaffirmed operating cash flow and free cash flow guidance for the 2023 fiscal year. Shares traded down about 0.6%.

Freeport McMoRan beat top-line and bottom-line estimates on higher production at the company’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia. Shares traded up 1.4% early in Wednesday’s regular session.

NextEra Energy beat the consensus EPS estimate but missed on revenue. The nation’s largest generator of renewable energy also issued guidance in line with expectations and said it expects to be able to continue increasing its dividend by about 10% annually through next year. Shares traded down about 5.3% early Wednesday.

After markets close on Wednesday, CSX, IBM, Lam Research and Tesla will report earnings. American Airlines, Comcast and Nokia are set to report quarterly results early Thursday.


Here is a preview of what to expect when these four Dow components report quarterly results late Thursday or Friday morning.

American Express

American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP) has had a 12-month share-price decrease of about 2.3%. From the stock’s peak in mid-February of last year, shares have dropped by about 20%. The company reports fourth-quarter results first thing Friday morning.
Rival MasterCard’s SpendingPulse report for the holiday season showed retail sales up 8% year over year. But inflation raised prices by more than 7%. Doubts about consumers’ ability to pay credit card debt have caused several banks to increase their provisions for losses. It is hard to see how Amex can avoid a similar fate.

Analysts remain lukewarm on the stock. Of 26 brokerages covering the firm, 13 have a Hold rating and another 10 have a Buy or Strong Buy rating. At a recent price of around $155.30 a share, the implied gain based on a median price target of $166.00 is about 6.9%. At the high price target of $201.00, the upside potential rises to 29.4%.

Fourth-quarter revenue is forecast to rise sequentially by about 5.1% to $14.25 billion. That would be a jump of about 17.4% year over year. Adjusted EPS are pegged at $2.24, down 9.4% sequentially but 2.8% higher year over year. For the full 2022 fiscal year, analysts are looking for EPS of $9.97, down 0.5%, on revenue of $52.87 billion, up 24.8%.

The stock trades at about 115.6 times expected 2022 EPS, 14.9 times estimated 2023 earnings of $10.45 and 13.0 times estimated 2024 earnings of $11.92 per share. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $130.65 to $199.55, and American Express pays an annual dividend of $2.08 (yield of 1.35%). Total shareholder return for the past 12 months was negative 0.9%.

Chevron

Over the past 12 months, shares of Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) have risen by 42.2%. Since peaking at around $124 a barrel in March, the price of oil has dropped to around $80, a dip of $10 a barrel since Chevron reported third-quarter earnings. In late December, the company was authorized by the federal government to resume shipments of Venezuelan crude to the United States. That will have little effect on fourth-quarter results but should help the company’s results for the six-month term of the license. Chevron reports results early Friday, and a dividend increase could also be in the cards.

Analysts’ sentiment remains solid. Of the 29 brokerages covering Chevron, 14 have a Buy or Strong Buy rating and 12 have Hold ratings. At a share price of around $181.00, the upside potential based on a median price target of $193.00 is 6.6%. At the high price target of $236.00, the upside potential is 30.4%.

Fourth-quarter revenue is forecast at $53.97 billion, down 19% sequentially but 12.1% higher year over year. Adjusted EPS are forecast at $4.29, down 22.8% sequentially and up 67.6% year over year. For the full 2022 year, analysts expect Chevron to post EPS of $19.16, up 135.7%, on revenue of $239.21 billion, up 47.2%.

Chevron stock trades at 9.4 times expected 2022 EPS, 11.3 times estimated 2023 earnings of $16.07 and 12.1 times estimated 2024 earnings of $14.91 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $125.27 to $189.68. Chevron pays an annual dividend of $5.68 (yield of 3.14%). Total shareholder return for the past 12 months was 47.3%.

Intel

Shares of Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) have dropped by more than 42% over the past 12 months. The chipmaker continues to face challenges in the enterprise and data center markets, where rival AMD is putting up stiffer competitive silicon. PC sales are not going to help with the past quarter’s results and offer no improvement in the next several months.
What is helping boost the share price is investor exuberance. Intel stock is up nearly 15% in the past month and more than 13% for the month of January, compared to a year-to-date gain of about 8.6% for the Nasdaq. Intel reports fourth-quarter results after markets close Thursday. Anything less than a solid beat is likely to hammer the stock.

Of 41 analysts covering the stock, just eight have a Buy or Strong Buy rating. There are 23 Hold ratings, and the other 10 firms rate the stock at Sell or Strong Sell. At a share price of around $30.00, the stock trades at its median price target. At the high target of $67.10, the implied upside is about 124%.

Fourth-quarter revenue is forecast at $14.5 billion, down 5.5% sequentially and by 25.4% year over year. Adjusted EPS are forecast at $0.20, down nearly 66% sequentially and by 81.6% year over year. For the 2022 fiscal year, Intel is expected to report EPS of $1.95, down 64.3%, on sales of $63.5 billion, down about 15%.

Intel stock trades at a multiple of 15.3 times expected 2022 EPS, 16.0 times estimated 2023 earnings of $1.86 and 11.4 times estimated 2024 earnings of $2.63 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $24.59 to $52.72. Intel pays an annual dividend of $1.46 (yield of 4.82%). Total shareholder return over the past year is negative 40.1%.

Visa

After markets close Thursday, credit card issuer Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) reports its quarterly results. Over the past 12 months, the stock price has risen by nearly 11%.

At the company’s annual shareholders’ meeting on Tuesday, retiring CEO Al Kelly said Visa continues to “believe that stablecoins and central bank digital currencies have the potential to play a meaningful role in the payments space, and we have a number of initiatives underway.” Kelly also said that recent collapses in the cryptosphere have not resulted in any credit losses to the company. Of course, he also said that Visa’s investments in crypto were “immaterial” to Visa’s $474 billion market cap. There’s a real crypto fanboy for you.

Analysts are solidly bullish on the stock, with 31 of 35 brokerages rating the shares at Buy or Strong Buy. Three have a Hold rating, and one has a Sell rating. At a share price of around $224.00, the implied gain based on a median price target of $260.00 is about 16.1%. At the high price target of $290.00, the upside potential is 29.5%.


For Visa’s first quarter of fiscal 2023, revenue is forecast at $7.7 billion, down 1.1% sequentially but 9.1% higher year over year. Adjusted EPS are forecast at $2.01, up 4.2% sequentially and by 11.0% year over year. For the full fiscal year ending in September, consensus estimates call for EPS of $8.30, up 10.7%, on revenue of $31.92 billion, up 8.9%.

Visa stock trades at 27.0 times expected 2023 EPS, 23.3 times estimated 2024 earnings of $9.60 and 20.1 times estimated 2025 earnings of $11.15 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $174.60 to $250.58. Visa pays an annual dividend of $1.80 (yield of 0.8%). Total shareholder return for the past 12 months was 11.76%.

 

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