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Earnings Previews:  Bank of America, Bank of New York Mellon, Charles Schwab, Lockheed Martin, Morgan Stanley

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The June quarter earnings hit the ground running Friday morning when several of the country’s largest financial services firms reported quarterly results.

Before U.S. markets opened Friday morning, JPMorgan Chase beat consensus estimates on both the top and bottom lines. Earnings per share (EPS) came in 10% above estimates, and revenue rose 34% year over year. Shares traded up about 1.3% early Friday morning.

Wells Fargo also reported beating the Street’s EPS and revenue estimates. EPS was 8.7% better than estimates, and revenue rose by nearly 21% year over year. The stock traded up about 0.1%.

BlackRock beat the consensus EPS estimate by nearly 9% but missed the revenue estimate by a hair. The stock traded down 1.5% early Friday, thanks to net inflows falling short of analysts’ estimates.

UnitedHealth Group beat top- and bottom-line estimates, and shares traded about 7.2% higher in Friday’s premarket session. Rising medical costs were more than offset by increased premiums, even though costs rose by 16% and premiums by 13%. 

Citigroup topped consensus EPS and revenue estimates and reaffirmed fiscal 2023 revenue guidance in line with analysts’ expectations. The stock was trading down by about 1.3%.

State Street beat the consensus EPS estimate by 3.2% but missed on revenue. Management fees decreased by 6% year over year due to net outflows in prior quarters. Shares traded down by about 5.3%.


Here’s what analysts expect to hear from five companies reporting results before markets open Tuesday morning. 

Bank of America

Shares of Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) have dropped by nearly 4% over the past 12 months. The stock has added almost 5% over the past five trading sessions despite an announced a Consumer Financial Protection Bureau fine of $250 million related to junk fees and fake accounts. As is the case with virtually every other big bank, rising interest rates will likely have boosted BofA’s net interest income by enough to offset a decline in lending. A 9% boost to its dividend payment also helps.

Analysts remain moderately bullish on BofA, with 13 of 25 putting a Buy or Strong Buy rating on the shares. Of the rest, 10 have given the stock a Hold rating. At a current price of around $29.70, the implied gain based on a median price target of $35.00 is 17.8%. At the high price target of $49.00, the implied upside is about 65%.

Second-quarter revenue is forecast at $24.94 billion, down 5% sequentially and up by 9.9% year over year. Adjusted EPS is expected to come in at $0.84, down 10.7% sequentially and up 15.1% year over year. For the full 2023 fiscal year, analysts currently forecast EPS of $3.36, up 5.3%, on revenue of $100.14 billion, up about 5.5%.

BofA’s stock trades at a multiple of 8.8 times expected 2023 EPS, 9 times estimated 2024 earnings of $3.28, and 8.4 times estimated 2025 earnings of $3.52 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $26.32 to $38.60. BofA pays an annual dividend of $0.88 (yield of 3.0%). Total shareholder return for the past 12 months was negative 1.18%.

Bank of New York Mellon

The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (NYSE: BK) has added about 10.4% to its share price over the past 12 months, but shares are up by less than 1% to date in 2023. The bank’s asset management group recently raised its rating on cash to Overweight, citing the Fed’s outlook for more tightening and overbought equities. The bank’s head of investment management said the combination could send the U.S. and European economies into recession in the second half of this year. 

Of the 18 analysts covering the stock, 11 awarded the shares a Buy or Strong Buy rating, and 6 have rated the stock a Hold. The median price target on the stock is $54.00, and at a recent price of around $45.50, the upside potential is around 18.7%. At the high target of $62.00, the potential upside is 36.3%.

Second-quarter revenue is forecast at $4.36 billion, flat sequentially and up 2.6% year over year. Adjusted EPS is expected to come in at $1.12, up 7.6% sequentially and up 6.1% year over year. For the full 2023 fiscal year, analysts currently forecast EPS of $4.78, up 4.1%, on revenue of $17.5 billion, up 6.8%.

The bank’s stock trades at a multiple of 9.5 times expected 2023 EPS, 8.9 times estimated 2024 earnings of $5.14, and 8.1 times estimated 2025 earnings of $5.62 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $36.22 to $52.26. Bank of New York Mellon pays an annual dividend of $1.48 (yield of 3.27%). Total shareholder return for the past 12 months was 14.21%.

Charles Schwab

The Charles Schwab Corp. (NYSE: SCHW) has seen its share price fall by about 2.6% over the past 12 months. Shares have plunged by 28% so far this year but just by 3.7% since the March collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. And while first-quarter revenue came in a bit light, EPS beat the consensus estimate by nearly 15%, allaying fears that Schwab was about to become collateral damage in the bank run. Schwab recently rolled out a new client services program for its wealthiest investors, but it also revealed Friday morning that it has suffered a data breach resulting from vulnerabilities in the file transfer software it uses. Up to 55,000 TD Ameritrade customers may have been affected. The same software has caused data breaches at many other financial services firms.

Analysts remain bullish on the stock, with 17 of 21 ratings of Buy or Strong Buy and 2 ratings of Hold on the stock. At a current price of around $60.00, the upside potential based on a median price target of $68.00 is 6.2%. At the high target of $85.00, the upside potential is 25%.

Second-quarter revenue is forecast at $4.61 billion, down 9.9% sequentially and down about 9.4% year over year. Adjusted EPS is forecast to dip by 23.2% sequentially to $0.71, 26.8% lower year over year. The current estimates for the 2023 fiscal year call for revenue of $19.27 billion, down 7.2%, and EPS of $3.21, down 17.6%.

Schwab trades at a multiple of 18.7 times expected 2023 EPS, 14.6 times estimated 2024 earnings of $4.12, and 11.6 times estimated 2025 earnings of $5.18 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $45.00 to $86.63. Schwab pays an annual dividend of $1.00 (yield of 1.74%). Total shareholder return for the past year is negative 1.08%.

Lockheed Martin

Over the past 12 months, shares of Lockheed Martin Corp. (NYSE: LMT) have increased by almost 15%. In 2023, however, shares are down about 4.4%. In the second half of 2022, the share price jumped by about 28%, due in part to a jump in share repurchases to avoid the buyback tax that went into effect in January 2023. Analysts began lowering their EPS and sales estimates in October, and that has helped keep Lockheed’s performance reasonably attractive to shareholders.

Just 6 of 22 brokerages covering the company have a Buy rating on the stock compared to 13 that have given the shares a Hold rating. At a current price of around $464.00, the upside potential based on a median price target of $513.50 is 10.7%. At the high price target of $579.00, the upside potential is 24.8%. The high price target has dropped by nearly $200.00 per share since the end of the first quarter.

Second-quarter revenue is forecast at $15.89 billion, up about 5.1% sequentially and up 2.8% year over year. Adjusted EPS is expected to come in at $6.45, up 0.3% sequentially and up 2% year over year. For the full 2023 fiscal year, Lockheed is expected to post EPS of $26.85, down 1.4%, on sales of $65.8 billion, down 0.3%.

Lockheed stock trades at a multiple of 17.3 times expected 2023 EPS, 16.7 times estimated 2024 earnings of $27.88, and 16.2 times estimated 2025 earnings of $28.62 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $373.67 to $508.10, and Lockheed pays an annual dividend of $12.00 (yield of 2.6%). Total shareholder return over the past 12 months was 16.78%.

Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) has seen its share price increase by more than 15% over the past 12 months. Most of that gain was posted between mid-October and mid-February, however, and Morgan Stanley has had an up-and-down ride in 2023. Since posting a 52-week in February, the stock is down 14%. Investment banking revenue tumbled in the first quarter, and there’s no sign that it picked up again in the second quarter or that it will pick up later this year. Bond-trading revenue rose, but not by enough to offset the weak IPO and M&A markets. The bank’s long-time CEO, James Gorman, announced his plan to retire by next May, and that did not help the stock either.

Analysts’ sentiment remains bullish on the stock, with 16 of 27 brokerages assigning the shares a Buy or Strong Buy rating. Another 10 rate the stock a Hold. At a current price of around $86.40, the upside potential based on a median price target of $97.00 is about 12.3%. At the high target of $112.00, the upside potential is 30.3%. 

The consensus estimate for second-quarter revenue is $13.04 billion, down 10.2% sequentially and down by less than 1% year over year. Adjusted EPS is forecast at $1.21, down 30.7% sequentially and down 20.9% year over year. For the full 2023 fiscal year, analysts are currently looking for revenue of $54.3 billion, up 1.2%, and EPS of $5.85, down 8%.

Morgan Stanley stock trades at a multiple of 14.8 times expected 2023 EPS, 12 times estimated 2024 earnings of $7.22, and 10.6 times estimated 2025 earnings of $8.12 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $72.05 to $100.99, and the bank pays an annual dividend of $3.10 (yield of 3.61%). Total shareholder return over the past year was 19.33%.

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