Fintel reports that on August 2, 2023, JP Morgan upgraded their outlook for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (NYSE:ARI) from Underweight to Neutral.

Analyst Price Forecast Suggests 9.24% Downside

As of July 6, 2023, the average one-year price target for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance is 10.71. The forecasts range from a low of 10.10 to a high of $11.55. The average price target represents a decrease of 9.24% from its latest reported closing price of 11.80.

See our leaderboard of companies with the largest price target upside.

The projected annual revenue for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance is 310MM, a decrease of 0.56%. The projected annual non-GAAP EPS is 1.51.

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Declares $0.35 Dividend

On June 13, 2023 the company declared a regular quarterly dividend of $0.35 per share ($1.40 annualized). Shareholders of record as of June 30, 2023 received the payment on July 14, 2023. Previously, the company paid $0.35 per share.

At the current share price of $11.80 / share, the stock’s dividend yield is 11.86%.

Looking back five years and taking a sample every week, the average dividend yield has been 11.83%, the lowest has been 8.46%, and the highest has been 30.82%. The standard deviation of yields is 3.41 (n=236).

The current dividend yield is 0.01 standard deviations above the historical average.

Additionally, the company’s dividend payout ratio is 1.37. The payout ratio tells us how much of a company’s income is paid out in dividends. A payout ratio of one (1.0) means 100% of the company’s income is paid in a dividend. A payout ratio greater than one means the company is dipping into savings in order to maintain its dividend – not a healthy situation. Companies with few growth prospects are expected to pay out most of their income in dividends, which typically means a payout ratio between 0.5 and 1.0. Companies with good growth prospects are expected to retain some earnings in order to invest in those growth prospects, which translates to a payout ratio of zero to 0.5.

The company has not increased its dividend in the last three years.

What is the Fund Sentiment?

There are 468 funds or institutions reporting positions in Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance. This is an increase of 3 owner(s) or 0.65% in the last quarter. Average portfolio weight of all funds dedicated to ARI is 0.09%, a decrease of 18.38%. Total shares owned by institutions decreased in the last three months by 0.29% to 88,441K shares. The put/call ratio of ARI is 3.39, indicating a bearish outlook.

What are Other Shareholders Doing?

IJR – iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF holds 9,478K shares representing 6.71% ownership of the company. In it’s prior filing, the firm reported owning 9,585K shares, representing a decrease of 1.13%. The firm decreased its portfolio allocation in ARI by 16.87% over the last quarter.

VTSMX – Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Investor Shares holds 4,344K shares representing 3.07% ownership of the company. In it’s prior filing, the firm reported owning 4,320K shares, representing an increase of 0.54%. The firm decreased its portfolio allocation in ARI by 19.68% over the last quarter.

NAESX – Vanguard Small-Cap Index Fund Investor Shares holds 3,703K shares representing 2.62% ownership of the company. In it’s prior filing, the firm reported owning 3,622K shares, representing an increase of 2.20%. The firm decreased its portfolio allocation in ARI by 15.09% over the last quarter.

IWM – iShares Russell 2000 ETF holds 3,041K shares representing 2.15% ownership of the company. In it’s prior filing, the firm reported owning 3,228K shares, representing a decrease of 6.15%. The firm decreased its portfolio allocation in ARI by 14.84% over the last quarter.

VISVX – Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index Fund Investor Shares holds 2,588K shares representing 1.83% ownership of the company. In it’s prior filing, the firm reported owning 2,538K shares, representing an increase of 1.93%. The firm decreased its portfolio allocation in ARI by 12.13% over the last quarter.

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Background Information
(This description is provided by the company.)

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (NYSE: ARI) is a real estate investment trust that primarily originates, acquires, invests in and manages performing commercial first mortgage loans, subordinate financings and other commercial real estate-related debt investments. The Company is externally managed and advised by ACREFI Management, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company and an indirect subsidiary of Apollo Global Management, Inc., a leading global alternative investment manager with approximately $433 billion of assets under management at September 30, 2020.

This article originally appeared on Fintel

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