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Earnings Previews: Lucid, Palantir, Paramount Global

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After U.S. markets closed on Thursday, Apple beat consensus estimates for both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue, but revenue dipped by 1.4% year over year, the third consecutive quarter to see an annual dip in sales. Despite that, the company said that its installed base of iPhones and other devices reached an all-time high. For Apple’s fourth quarter ending in September, the company guided revenue down again year over year, while iPhone and services revenue will rise. Shortly after Friday’s opening bell, shares traded down 2.8%.

Amazon hammered EPS forecasts by about 85%, and revenue beat the forecast by 2.2% and rose nearly 11% year over year. Revenue at the company’s cloud-computing division, AWS, nearly doubled compared to last year. Shares traded up 9.3%.

Airbnb also beat estimates on both the top and bottom lines. Revenue rose 18.1% year over year. The company issued in-line EPS guidance for the current quarter and said it expects full-year adjusted EBITDA margin to be somewhat higher than in 2022. The stock traded about flat.

Block beat Wall Street’s top-line and bottom-line estimates on the strength of its Cash App business. Net revenue was up 26% year over year, but the outlook for adjusted EBITDA disappointed investors. Shares traded down about 11%.

Coinbase Global also topped estimated EPS and revenue totals, but revenue fell by more than 12% year over year. That likely is due to an SEC lawsuit filed in June alleging that the company is trading unregistered securities (crypto tokens). Shares traded down 1.9%.

Livent beat the consensus EPS estimate by 8.5% but missed on revenue, even though revenue rose by nearly 8% year over year. The company reiterated fiscal year revenue guidance in a range of $1.025 billion to $1.125 billion. Shares traded up 1.1%.

No notable reports are due out Friday afternoon or Monday morning. Here is a preview of what to expect from three companies reporting results after U.S. markets close on Monday.

Lucid

Electric vehicle maker Lucid Group Inc. (NASDAQ: LCID) continues to have a terrible year. The stock has lost about 66% of its value over the past 12 months, adding less than 1% to its share price to date in 2023. Price cuts to Tesla vehicles in the first quarter of this year hurt competitors like Lucid more than they did Tesla.

Saudi Arabia’s sovereign Public Investment Fund owns about 61% of the firm, and a rumor in January that the fund would acquire the remaining shares sent the stock soaring briefly. What Lucid has to say about its future production and sales is likely to carry a lot of weight with investors.

Of 11 analysts covering the stock, four have a Buy or Strong Buy rating and six more rate it at Hold. At a recent share price of around $7.00, the upside potential based on a median price target of $8.00 is 14.3%. Based on the high target of $12.00, the upside potential is 71.4%.


Analysts expect the company to report 2023 second-quarter revenue of $205.01 million, which would be up 37.2% sequentially and up from $97.34 million in the year-ago quarter. The consensus forecast calls for an adjusted loss of $0.33 per share, somewhat better than the prior quarter’s loss of $0.39 per share and equal to the loss in the year-ago quarter. For the full 2023 fiscal year, the loss per share is forecast at $1.36, down from last year’s loss of $2.25 per share, on sales of $900.29 million, up 48%. At the end of the first quarter, the consensus revenue estimate was $1.36 billion.

Lucid is not expected to report a profit in 2023, 2024 or 2025. The enterprise value to sales multiple is expected to be 16.7 in 2023. Based on average estimated sales of $2.46 billion and $4.94 billion for 2024 and 2025, respectively, the multiple is 6.1 for 2024 and 3.0 for 2025. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $5.46 to $19.71. Lucid does not pay a dividend. Total shareholder return for the past year is negative 66.49%.

Palantir

Over the past 12 months, shares of Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE: PLTR) have jumped by 67%, including an eyewatering ascent of 191% to date this year, with most of that coming in the past three months. It is all about AI and the belief that Palantir is among the leaders in getting useful AI programs out to the world at large, including to its defense customers. The potential is driving the share price higher and might continue doing so for a few quarters yet. But the sooner a payoff comes, the better investors will like it.

Of 17 analysts covering the stock, just three have a Buy or Strong Buy, and seven have Hold ratings. That leaves seven non-believers. At a share price of around $18.70, the stock has far outrun its median price target of $12.00. At the high price target of $25.00, the potential upside is 33.7%.

The consensus second-quarter revenue estimate is $533.57 million, up 1.6% sequentially and by 13.3% year over year. Adjusted EPS are forecast at $0.04, flat sequentially and up 12.8% year over year. For the full 2023 fiscal year, estimates call for EPS of $0.21, up about 255%, on sales of $2.21 billion, up 15.9%.

The stock trades at 87.7 times expected 2023 EPS, 73.5 times estimated 2024 earnings of $0.25 and 56.4 times estimated 2025 earnings of $0.33 per share. Its 52-week range is $5.84 to $20.24 a share, and the company does not pay a dividend. The total shareholder return for the past year is 67.05%.

Paramount Global

Media giant Paramount Global (NASDAQ: PARA) has lost nearly 40% from its share price over the past 12 months, including a year-to-date decrease approaching 11%. The company, formerly known as ViacomCBS, owns CBS, Showtime, Comedy Central and other networks. A weak first-quarter report in early May sent the stock tumbling 30%, and the shares have yet to recover. The company is reportedly near a deal to sell publisher Simon & Schuster to private equity firm KKR for around $1.6 billion. If the only way the company can find to finance its focus on streaming is to sell off its assets, someone will notice fairly quickly and the result could be ugly.

Of 28 brokerages covering the company, just seven have Buy or Strong Buy ratings, the same number as in the previous quarter. The number of Sell or Strong Sell ratings has dipped from 13 to 11 quarter over quarter. At a share price of around $15.00, the upside potential based on a median price target of $17.00 is 13.3%. At the high target of $32.00, the upside potential is 113.3%.


Paramount is expected to post first-quarter revenue of $7.45 billion, up 2.5% sequentially but 4.2% lower year over year. Analysts are forecasting an adjusted loss per share of $0.02, down from EPS of $0.09 in the prior quarter and down from EPS of $0.64 in the year-ago quarter. For the full 2023 fiscal year, analysts are looking for EPS of $0.62, down 64% year over year, on revenue of $30.53 billion, up 1.2%.

The stock trades at 24.9 times expected 2023 EPS, 11.0 times estimated 2024 earnings of $1.40 and 9.0 times estimated 2025 earnings of $1.69 per share. Paramount’s 52-week trading range is $13.80 to $27.49. The company pays an annual dividend of $0.20 (yield of 1.29%). Paramount cut its annual dividend from $0.96 per share with the March payment. Total shareholder return for the past 12 months was negative 37.40%.

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