Investing

Morning Blast: Chinese Real Estate; Ford Mustang Supercar; Arm IPO

Paul Ausick

Published: August 18, 2023 7:23 am

There is no particular relationship among the three subjects of this morning’s blast. But they are all interesting.

China’s struggling China Evergrande Group on Thursday filed for Chapter 15 bankruptcy protection in New York. The property developer’s balance sheet is dominated by liabilities of more than $300 billion and assets that have been losing value for several years.

It is not alone. Another big Chinese property developer, Country Garden, is on the verge of defaulting on its own massive debt.

The problem is simple. These two firms (and they are not alone) borrowed more than they can service. Without the liquidity to make their payments, they have no choice but to seek protection from creditors.

This raises the question of how exposed are U.S. banks to China’s economic woes. Citigroup is the bank with the most exposure to China, with some $20 billion of its $167 billion in equity assets invested in the country. While that is not nothing, it is about 8% of the bank’s assets. Citi and the other U.S. banks may fairly easily withstand troubles in China.

U.K.-based HSBC has nearly 32% of its assets tied up in China, and Standard Chartered has about 15% of its assets in the country. These banks stand to lose a great deal more.

Speaking of losing money, Ford just launched a Mustang supercar, the GTD, which comes with a 5.2-liter internal combustion V-8 engine (800 horsepower) and a sticker price of around $300,000. Initial deliveries of the handbuilt Mustang GTD are expected to begin late next year.

This isn’t the worst idea Ford ever had. That would be the Edsel.

But Ford needs to think about its commitment to its electric vehicles (EVs). In the June quarter, Ford sold just 14,843 EVs, a year-over-year drop of 2.8%. For some reason, Ford figures it has to have a play in every niche of the auto market. That idea hearkens back to the 1950s when American automakers wanted to develop a chain of more expensive brands that customers would move through. At Ford, it was the Ford, Mercury, Lincoln path; at GM, it was Chevrolet, Buick, Pontiac, Oldsmobile and Cadillac. Building a few supercars at eye-watering prices is not going to fix any problem Ford is having.

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British chip designer Arm Ltd. is aiming for a September initial public offering that majority owner Softbank hopes will end up raising up to $10 billion at a valuation for Arm of $60 billion to $70 billion. According to a Bloomberg report, Arm has lined up 28 banks to participate in the IPO. Four banks (Barclays, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Mizuho) will be lead underwriters and split underwriting fees evenly. In addition to the usual underwriters, Softbank also wants Arm customers like Nvidia and Apple to invest in the IPO. Arm’s IPO stands to be the year’s biggest if it lives up to Softbank’s hopes. There is plenty for everybody.