Ethereum’s (CRYPTO: ETH) been ripping higher. Most investors who aren’t living under a rock already know this. Now trading around $4,050 per token at the time of writing, Ethereum is officially making a move toward a new all-time high. And given its vertical trajectory, there’s no shortage of investors betting this token will get there.

The question is, just how high could Ethereum fly by 2030? And what’s a more reasonable base case scenario (and its “look-out” bear case potential). Here’s our take on where the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency could be headed over the next six years or so.

Ethereum Bull 2030 Forecast

There really are three potential catalysts we see as likely reasons why Ethereum could not only make new all-time highs, but surge to multiples of its current value, by 2030. These are: a potential SEC approval of spot Ethereum ETFs, a surge in network activity tied to Ethereum’s upcoming Dencun upgrade, and broader secular tailwinds tied to decentralized finance (DeFi) adoption.

The most recent parabolic move we’ve seen across the board for most cryptocurrencies has to do with the fact that Bitcoin is surging higher. The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs by the SEC in January paved the way for a flood of institutional capital into this sector. For now, all that fresh money is being fed into warping Bitcoin’s supply and demand further. But if the SEC approves similar ETFs for Ethereum, all bets are off with respect to what that would mean for this token, given its recent shift toward being a deflationary token after its previous “Merge” upgrade.

That brings us to our second point – Ethereum’s upcoming Dencun upgrade, scheduled to unfold this week, could drive some serious user adoption. This upgrade is aimed at improving the efficiency of Layer-2 networks operating on top of Ethereum. Given that’s where most DeFi activity takes place, that’s bullish for the real-world utilitarians out there, who own Ethereum specifically because it 
“does something.” 

This could supercharge the macro bull thesis around Ethereum, that it’s the lifeblood and core infrastructure of DeFi and Web3. As more projects are built on Ethereum, and its user base grows, these network effects get stronger. Thus, there’s a self-contained value loop that ultimately feeds into higher Ethereum prices.

If these catalysts continue as expected, we fully expect Ethereum could break through the $10,000 level by 2030. It’s our view that a $15,000 price target on Ethereum in six years’ time is reasonable (if everything goes right).

Ethereum Bear 2030 Forecast

But what if everything doesn’t go right?

What if DeFi adoption stalls, users move away from blockchain-based gaming and other decentralized applications, and Solana or other higher-throughput and lower-cost networks eat Ethereum’s lunch for the NFTs that are still valuable?

Well, that’s possible. Ethereum’s value is largely based on its status as the essential plumbing of the DeFi and nascent Web3 worlds. Right now, thousands of developers are building such applications, many of whom choose to build on Ethereum. But if there are no users, there’s no ecosystem, and those network effects dry right up.

Ethereum’s core infrastructure has also proven to be quite secure for a long time. There aren’t the kinds of outages Solana has seen, for example, plaguing this network. Developers and users like this, because there’s value in stability. But given the increasingly-centralized nature of Ethereum staking (with the vast majority of staking taking place over an astoundingly low number of nodes – ahem, Lido and Coinbase), this thesis could get blown out of the water.

Then there are the competitors nipping at Ethereum’s heels, looking to take a larger and more profitable slice of the DeFi and Web3 pie. Name your contender – Solana, Avalanche, Cardano – there are reasons why other investors prefer these blockchains over Ethereum. Though, notably, the key reason is cost – and that’s something these constant upgrades are attempting to improve.

So, if Ethereum’s high-cost network becomes unstable, or we see a marked drop in DeFi activity, it’s entirely possible Ethereum could go back to trading in the triple-digit realm. Our bear case prediction for this token is a reversion back to around $800 per token.

Ethereum Base 2030 Forecast

Splitting the difference, a $10,00 price target certainly seems achievable for Ethereum over the coming six years. Even if we factor in some serious volatility, sprinkle in another crypto winter, and add a few hiccups here and there, the reality remains that Ethereum will likely retain its pole position as “king of DeFi.”

It’s our view that Ethereum’s value is really unparalleled in the world of blockchain-based application building and utility generation. So long as Ethereum can fend off its competition (as it’s been able to do successfully for nearly a decade), investors should certainly bank on a little more than a double-up from here. That would be a fair risk-adjusted return over this time frame, in our view.

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