Russia and Ukraine Have Brought Global Uncertainty

Michael Muir explores the role of artillery in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, emphasizing the challenges Ukraine faces in terms of ammunition supply and manufacturing capabilities. The conversation highlights the significant support from European nations and the critical need for continued American involvement, noting that domestic politics in the U.S. will heavily influence Ukraine’s future.

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Transcript:

Just been resolving.

Can we talk about the artillery aspect?

Cause I think that is an interesting element here that you’ve discussed.

So you discussed the range of the MiG-29 in maybe most theaters, it would be limiting.

But in the defensive theater, it still works perfectly fine.

One of the big maybe at-risk issues or the concerns of giving the F-16s the ability to strike into Russian territory, whereas artillery, at least in this context, does not appear to be as much of a concern there for striking into Russian territory.

It’s largely considered defensive.

This has been a shell game in the sense that Russia and Ukraine have just been lobbing artillery back and forth at each other.

Can we talk about the importance of artillery in this conflict and where Ukraine stands?

Yeah.

I guess interesting is maybe not the best word to use, but it’s really odd that we have the latest technology being used alongside older tech.

In fact, some of the small arms go all the way back to World War I, some of these static machine guns.

But this stage of the war is very attritional.

Artillery is very important.

And Ukraine is desperately short of artillery shells.

Russia has a few more means to acquire shells legally and otherwise.

And some of the European effect, if I remember correctly, Denmark donated its entire supply of artillery shells to Ukraine.

It’s still far from enough to sustain the rate of fire that they need to.

And that’s when I spoke of the German self-propelled artillery, one of the problems they ran into is they were using them way, way more than they were supposed to be.

Well, they were designed to be used because it is just constant.

It’s almost a throwback against World War I.

It’s just pounding each other with artillery and trying to crack defensive positions.

So Russia’s current posture in this conflict is to gradually wear down Ukraine and European nations are struggling to make up the difference in the absence of American support.

And would you say Russia has been so far successful in that?

I mean, at least from the outsider’s view, it seems that Russia holds a dramatic advantage on being able to manufacture and deliver artillery.

So if we are in the attritional stage of this war, has that been to the Russian advantage to just keep lobbing his artillery?

It was the shortfall in Ukrainian artillery, a temporary thing, and has now been solved.

And either allies have stepped in.

Where does the current sort of stockpile balance stand between these two countries?

Well, right now, Russia has far more shells to lob at Ukraine, and I don’t think that’s going to change anytime soon.

It’s really going to affect.

As I touched on a little earlier, domestic politics is going to have a huge bearing on the outcome of this conflict.

Ukraine quite simply doesn’t have the manpower or munitions to achieve its aims right now.

It’s heavily dependent on outside support to continue its war effort.

And European nations are doing what they can, but they simply don’t have the defense manufacturing capabilities to make up for America’s absence.

If Ukraine is going to have a positive outcome in this war, the United States is going to have to step up once again.

And without geting into domestic politics in the United States too much, I think the elections in November are just going to have a huge bearing on Ukraine’s future.

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