Key Points:

• A unified Korea is messy, but both want it
• The military dictatorship and export democracy would likely be managed through a loose federation
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Summary:

Austin Smith and Michael Muir discuss the prospects of a unified Korea, considering the ongoing Korean War, which is technically only in a state of armistice. They explore the contrasting regimes of North Korea’s military dictatorship and South Korea’s export-focused democracy. North Korea envisions unification through a loose federation similar to China’s Special Administrative Regions, while South Korea favors a gradual process of reconciliation and reform. The timeline for unification is uncertain, but both Koreas ultimately aim for it. Despite the challenges, the rapid progress seen in South Korea’s adoption of democracy suggests that unification, while potentially decades away, could occur relatively quickly on the historical scale.

Transcript:

So you had mentioned earlier that the war with Korea is still ongoing.

It’s only in a state of armistice.

But we now see this incredible divergence.

We’ve got a military largely dictatorship with North Korea and an export-focused democracy in South Korea.

What would a unification actually look like?

If the Korean War is still technically ongoing, presumably it is still North Korea’s plan to unify, what would that actually look like, practically speaking?

Is it even possible?

Well, yeah, that’s a really interesting question because we tend, like in the present day, we don’t really look too far ahead.

We’re just thinking kind of next year, next quarter.

But I think unification is the ultimate goal for both North and South Korea.

They just have rather different ideas of how it should take place.

North Korea had this idea of a kind of a loose federation.

I think the nearest real-world equivalent would be something like the Special Administrative Regions of China, sort of one country, two systems.

It’s not exactly like that, but that would be the nearest equivalent.

So it would be this kind of loose federation where they both largely keep their ideologies and ways of life, but they’re under one kind of unified government, which is going to over time become more integrated.

Now, it’s not necessarily by well, at least outwardly, North Korea doesn’t suggest this unification will not be done by force, will be done peacefully.

But of course, they would say that.

But I imagine if they had the military advantage, they would pursue it and try to do so forcefully.

South Korea’s is.

They are also looking towards unification, but this is more of a gradual step-by-step process that begins with reconciliation and reform in the North.

The potential of a Korean Commonwealth I’ve seen in some literature.

I think the nearest equivalent would be something a little bit like the European Union, kind of an economic union.

of two Koreas with a very gradual process of full integration.

I think if South Korea led the unification effort, there would be a lot of friction in building up North Korea to South Korea’s level, so to speak.

So that would be really interesting.

In terms of timeline, it’s impossible to say.

Of course, a lot can happen, but I do think there is still, I think unification is the ultimate answer to the Korean question.

It’s just going to be a matter of time.

And, you know, we should remind ourselves that, you know, if this conflict is still less than 80 years old and South Korea themselves only adopted democracy in the 80s, you know, while we say it might take a long time on the spectrum of countries, that’s actually an incredible amount of progress and change that has occurred relatively quickly.

So, you know, a unification wall might take decades.

That still, you know, could be a blink of the eye.

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