Key Points:
- Presidential power is limited by Congress’s control.
- Congressional makeup influences the success of policies.
- Changes in Congress can impact key issues like foreign aid.
- Smart investors are looking ahead to 2025 and placing bets, with a few being called “the next Nvidia.” See for yourself.
Austin Smith and Michael Muir discuss the often overlooked but critical importance of down-ballot outcomes in U.S. elections, particularly in determining what a president can actually accomplish. Michael explains that while much attention is given to the presidency, the success of any administration’s policies heavily depends on the composition of Congress. He highlights past examples, noting that both Trump and Biden faced significant challenges even when their parties controlled both the House and Senate. The conversation emphasizes that the upcoming 2024 election will be crucial not only for the presidency but also for determining the legislative landscape that will either support or hinder the president’s agenda.
Transcript:
I want to talk about a really under-discussed topic in the U.S.’s role globally, geopolitically, and that’s what happens down ballot.
So we like to talk a lot about, and we have discussed, you know, what would a Trump presidency mean for Ukraine or Taiwan or what would a Harris presidency mean for those countries as well?
But almost as important, if not more important, is what happens down ballot.
So can you just explain to us why that is?
And then let’s get into it from there.
Well, of course, what a president can actually do is heavily dependent on things getting through the House and the Senate.
So we need to consider the landscape going into the 2024 election when we think about who ultimately wins the presidency and what they can get done.
So if we go back to when Trump was president, he had the trifecta for the first half of his first term, but had great difficulty getting anything through.
Similarly, we saw with Joe Biden having the trifecta from 21 to 23, again, had major uphill battles getting legislation through the legislature.
And then, of course, in the second half of Biden’s term, the Democrats lost the House and aid to Ukraine dried up almost overnight.
So I think that is a huge factor going into this election that we need to discuss and weigh up those options.
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