Investing

Prediction: Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) Turns Rotten in October

Austin Smith

Published: September 6, 2024 8:30 pm

Last Updated: September 29, 2024 6:31 am

Key Points:

• iPhone 16 launch may see slow initial sales due to delayed iOS 18 features.
• Customers might wait to see iOS 18 performance before purchasing.
• Possible Apple stock sell-off if the launch disappoints.
• Also: The smart money is already looking at The Next Nvidia as the best investment today.

Doug and Lee discuss the upcoming launch of the iPhone 16, speculating that initial sales may be weak due to customers waiting to see how iOS 18 performs on the new device. They note that recent iPhone sales, like those of the iPhone 15, have been underwhelming, and that the integration of AI features into the iPhone 16 will need to be impressive to entice buyers. They also consider the possibility of an Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) stock sell-off in October if the launch underperforms, questioning why Warren Buffett has been reducing his position in Apple and other core investments like Bank of America.

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Edited Video Transcript:

So let’s take a look at the launch of the iPhone 16.

September, I think, 9th is the new date, maybe the 10th.

You got Tim Cook.

He comes out onto the stage.

Maybe he’s wearing the old Steve Jobs black.

Behind, you’ve got a massive screen as big as the Empire State Building.

They put the iPhone 16 up on there.

They talk about all the features for iOS 18.

People, God, they can’t believe it.

It’s my God.

It’s like the launch of the original iPhone.

Now, that was something.

So I think that you’re going to have weak iPhone sales between the launch and when people see iOS 18.

I don’t think people are going to buy something when they know that the actual features of it are not going to be available to them when they make the purchase.

So here’s my forecast.

My forecast is first two weeks after the launch, sales are weak.

You don’t have what you used to see on TV, which is all those people in sleeping bags around the corners, you know.

I don’t think that walk in and order their iPhone.

I think I don’t think people I think people want to see the operating system.

Yeah, I think you’re right.

And like you know, we’ve mentioned in the past the iPhone sales for 15 so so I mean, they were okay, but they weren’t anything through the roof.

And, you know, like we’ve talked more than once, you know, it’s a little bit better camera or it’s a little bit better screen or, you know, it’s a little bit bigger.

And I think you’re right.

They’re going to wait and see how iOS 18 interacts with the phone and how the user interacts with iOS 18.

And your friends say, well, you know, the AI component’s okay, but I can go online and do it.

I can drop the app on my phone and do it.

Well, see, that’s the other thing.

I mean, I’ve got an iPhone here someplace, and I’ve already downloaded two or three of these AI applications.

Yeah, me too.

So what I’m going to do is they’re going to have to compete with what I’ve already got on this phone.

Yeah, for free.

Right.

And if…

Or I paid $199 a month for the latest version of it.

But the fact of the matter is that you’re competing with something that you’ve already got on your phone.

You could make the argument it’s much more integrated into the operating system.

But it’s really got to have some bells and whistles.

Yeah, I think so.

And again, hopefully the iOS 18 doesn’t trail it by too much.

If they come out after two weeks and go, well, we haven’t kind of tweaked it the way we want it.

It’ll be mid-October or late October.

And people are going to say, what?

You know, I’m waiting to see how my friend’s iPhone 50 or 16 is and how it benefits them.

So I think that could be interesting.

They got to have to be right on time.

That’s for sure.

Yeah.

And I think that I would watch for a potential sell-off of Apple starting early in October.

If this stuff doesn’t look good, I think you’re going to start to see a sell-off like you did at the very beginning of this year.

And it could sell down a lot.

Yeah, I think so too.

And again, how much more stock is Buffett going to sell?

Is he going to hold tight with 400,000 shares now?

He sold over 500,000 shares of it.

And again, like we’ve discussed in the past, why is he cutting his positions on stuff like this so much?

Why is he selling so much of a core position that was at 1.50% of Berkshire Hathaway?

I mean, it’s just astonishing.

I mean, you talk about No, he’s just an old guy and he does that.

So he goes all in when he goes all in, and that’s for sure.

But when he starts to remove positions that have been huge, and he’s doing the same with Bank of America, something’s going on that he sees?

Yeah.