So, over at Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN), the eenie weenie EV company said that they had a miscommunication with one of their suppliers and that they were revising downward their production figures for this year.
The first number, the original number, was fifty-seven thousand.
They now say it will be between forty-seven and forty-nine thousand.
But this is a company that specializes in losing a billion dollars a quarter.
My estimates are that in the next quarter, they’ll have a billion and a half dollars in revenue and a billion and a half dollars in losses.
So that’s, and I bet you that’s pretty close.
So I want you to tell me, I mean, why do these guys even bother to come to work in the morning?
I don’t know.
And if you’ve ever seen the Rivian design, you know, the whole front end is kind of zany looking, and, I don’t know.
I think from a car design aspect, I don’t think it’s that great.
But I think the thing that was one of the first tip-offs to us was the whole thing where they couldn’t deliver the electric vans to Amazon.
And that was a big order.
And they were like, yeah, we need to get these electric vans to you.
But it’s going to be a while because of the same thing they are citing now, which is supply chain issues.
Well, the thing that – here’s what would worry me as an owner, and I think investors should think about this as sort of part of the future of the company.
What are you going to do to get these things serviced?
If this company is running on basically a string and spit, which could happen –
Yeah, I think that their problem, among other things, is that how do they service it?
You can buy one of these, but you get it serviced in a year?
Well, and it’s not like there’s dealerships in every major metropolitan area, to the best of my knowledge.
No, and I believe that this is a hurdle.
For anybody who’s thinking of investing in a small-ish EV company, one of the hurdles is that Buyer is going to look at the question of whether or not they can get the car serviced.
One of the reasons I think Rivian, Lucid (NASDAQ: LCID), Fisker can’t grow is when people walk through a dealer or, you know, like Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), buy it online and check it out in some remote showroom.
Yeah, it’s really… I’m not going to buy one because it can’t get serviced.
That, to me, is a barrier to entry for those companies, which, to me, is another reason not to buy the stock.
You’re absolutely right, Doug.
And it’s one thing if you’re buying a Volt or, you know, a Ford F-Lightning, or at least, you know, there’s Ford (NYSE: F) dealers everywhere and Chevy (NYSE: GM) dealers everywhere.
And there’s even, you know, Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) dealers everywhere, not these guys.
And, like we’ve discussed, you know, kind of ad nauseum now, the whole claim from the pro-Rivian crew is that, hey, they got five billion coming from Volkswagen.
No, they don’t.
They’ve had one billion invested so far.
And given Volkswagen’s well-covered issues in Germany with the prospect of closing two plants and lack of demand for EVs,
Yeah, I think I think all three of them that you just mentioned, I think there’s a there’s a good chance that at least one is gone by the end of twenty five and maybe two.
They will never see that additional four billion dollars.
You can take my prediction to the bank.
Order cancel from Amazon if they can’t make the deliveries.
So this is a stock IPO in November, two thousand twenty one at seventy-one bucks on a good day.
It trades at ten.
And I’m going to give this advice to everybody within earshot.
You can watch this baby go below five soon.
Yeah, I agree.
And, you know, it’s dead money any way you look at it, even if they somehow managed to survive.
The only bump higher will be, you know, a short squeeze.
That’ll be the only bump.
It won’t be any big fundamental reason that you need to own shares now because things look so much better.
There’s enough volume in this so that if somebody’s intrepid, you could short it.
And quite frankly, I think it’s a good short.
Yeah, I do, too.
And I used to do business with a guy who was an intriguing guy, and he was always shorting stocks.
That were sub-ten dollar stocks that had already been hammered.
And nine times out of ten, he was right.
They’d go from four to two or three to one.
And that could be the case here.
I wouldn’t touch it with a ten-foot pole.
No.
