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Social Security 2025: Love It or Hate It, the COLA Number Has Arrived

Social Security
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This Number Is the Maximum Social Security Benefit For Next Year

To qualify for the maximum Social Security benefit of $5,108 per month in 2025, retirees must meet several strict criteria. They need to have worked at least 35 years earning the maximum taxable income each year.

For 2025, that earnings cap is $176,100. Additionally, they must wait until age 70 to claim benefits, which boosts their monthly check significantly. Only a small fraction of retirees, particularly those born in 1955, will qualify for this top benefit due to the combination of earnings history and delayed retirement.

2024 earnings limit was $168,000, so 2025 will be 4.45% higher.

Past 20 Years Of COLA Changes

The 2025 COLA of 2.5% will be the largest decrease in percentage from the previous year’s COLA since 2008, but close to the average COLA increase over the past 20 years (2.62%)>

Year COLA Year-over-year change
2004 2.7% 1.40%
2005 4.1% -0.80%
2006 3.3% -1.00%
2007 2.3% 3.50%
2008 5.8% -5.80%
2009 0.0% 0.00%
2010 0.0% 3.60%
2011 3.6% -1.90%
2012 1.7% -0.20%
2013 1.5% 0.20%
2014 1.7% -1.70%
2015 0.0% 0.30%
2016 0.3% 1.70%
2017 2.0% 0.80%
2018 2.8% -1.20%
2019 1.6% -0.30%
2020 1.3% 4.60%
2021 5.9% 2.80%
2022 8.7% -5.50%
2023 3.2% -0.70%
2024 2.5% -2.50

This year, the average monthly benefit for retirees is approximately $1,927, according to the Social Security Administration. With the 2.5% increase, that amount will rise to $1,976 per month. For married couples who both receive Social Security, their average benefit will increase from $3,014 to $3,089 per month next year.

To put this into perspective over the last 20 years, in 2004, the average monthly Social Security benefit for retired workers was approximately $922, according to the Social Security Administration.

The Social Security Administration announced the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for next year and set the number at 2.5%, the lowest adjustment since 2021. This means on average, retirees will see a monthly increase of just $49 per month, which does not stretch far after when consumer goods are still at elevated prices.

67% of seniors depend on Social Security for more than half their income, an average of $49 a month is eaten away health care and home and auto insurance costs. Auto insurance alone is up 14% this past year. Even staples like eggs are up close to 40% year-over-year.

Further frustration comes from the uncertainty surrounding Medicare Part B premiums, which may reduce the effective benefit of the COLA even further. AARP and other groups continue to call for reform to ensure that Social Security remains a reliable income source for retirees.

Consumer price index summary

Basket of goods Un-adjusted 12-mos. ended sept. 2024 percentage change
All Items 2.4%
Food 2.3%
-Food at home 1.3%
-Food away from home 3.9%
Energy -6.8%
-Energy commodities -15.3%
-Fuel oil -22.4%
-Energy services 3.4%
-Electricity 3.7%
-Utility (piped) gas service 2.0%
All items less food and energy 3.3%
-Commodities less food and energy commodities -1.0%
-New vehicle -1.3%
-Used cars and trucks -5.1%
-Apparel 1.8%
-Medical Care commodities 1.6%
Services less energy services 4.7%
-Shelter 4.9%
-Transportation services 8.5%
-Medical care services 3.6%

Data: bls.gov 

While 2.5% COLA may seem disappointing to seniors after higher increases the past few years, its not all that bad. The small COLA is a reflection of the entire inflation picture in the U.S., where essentials like energy, fuel oil dropped 15% and 22% respectively over the last year. After the craze of 2021, used car sales have also cooled off with prices dropping just over 5%.

Cost-of-living adjustments are designed to maintain purchasing power, not improve ones finance outlook. A smaller COLA feels underwhelming but it is a reflection of a more stable with stable inflation which should keep consumer needs prices in check.

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