Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock drove over a rather steep single-day cliff, sinking close to 9%, as the long-awaited Robotaxi Day failed to impress. Undoubtedly, expectations and hype for the Cybercab, Tesla’s robotaxi offering, have been steadily building up in the months leading up to the big “We, Robot” event. And though Optimus robots serving drinks made for a rather intriguing event for those who were in attendance, the event itself didn’t really have all too much in the way of positive surprises.
Most notably, there wasn’t really much detail to entice analysts to revisit the drawing board with upside revisions. Indeed, I was rather surprised at how brief the event was on tech specs, release dates, and just where the Cybercab stands on the regulatory approval front. We already have Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) Waymo driving around big Californian cities. And thus far, the Waymo ride has gone relatively smoothly, at least in these early stages.
Key Points About This Article
- Tesla’s ‘We, Robot’ event fell flat, as investors were left without much detail on specs and deadlines.
- Cybercab and Robovan need to deliver if Tesla rides high on the pathway to $3 trillion.
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Tesla’s “We, Robot” event falls short of expectations; TSLA stock plunges.
Indeed, Cybercab needs to play catch up, and while the We, Robot made for a pretty sight as it gave rides across Warner Bros. Studios, it’s unclear just how the Cybercab stacks up against the likes of Waymo or any other rivals — think General Motors‘ (NYSE:GM) Cruise — in the robotaxi scene. Undoubtedly, it’s this degree of uncertainty that has many investors throwing in the towel and some analysts turning their back on a name that continues to be challenged by headwinds in the auto scene.
One crucial detail we did get from Cybercab is that it’ll be priced at under $30,000 and launch in either 2026 or 2027. Given that Elon Musk has a track record of being too optimistic with his timelines, I wouldn’t get my hopes up for a launch by 2027. Additionally, Forrester Research analyst Paul Miller thinks it’d be “extremely difficult” for Tesla to sell its Cybercab for less than $30,000.
Of course, only time will tell if Mr. Musk can make good on his promises. After all, it’s proven quite a bad idea to bet against the man over the past decade. Either way, promising so much could set the stage for disappointment at some point down the road. Despite the detail-lacking event and somewhat ambiguous details, I do think the company has a pathway to a $3 trillion market cap.
A big-name analyst sees a path to a $3 trillion valuation.
Recently, Deepwater Asset Management’s Gene Munster brought up the idea that Tesla will one day command a $3 trillion market cap. Such a target entails the stock will more than quadruple from current levels. And though it could take some number of years for TSLA to kick things into high gear, I do find that the Cybercab and Robovan will play a massive role in helping TSLA shares get back into rally mode.
Indeed, the futuristic Cybercab and Robovan design looks incredibly well-designed, like a mix between a Model 3 and the Cybertruck. They certainly look like something for the year 2050 rather than something poised for a launch within three years! And given the likelihood that launch delays — in my humble opinion, the two latest autonomous offerings may not launch until 2028 — are priced into Tesla stock at this juncture, investors may have a shot to hail a ride on TSLA stock at a nice discount.
Arguably, the uncertainty surrounding Tesla’s autonomous offerings is higher following the “We, Robot” event. Sure, we got a glimpse of the future, but with specific dates or specs to get behind, it’s hard to gauge whether we should buy into Mr. Musk’s autonomous driving future. He envisions a world where Tesla owners can let their vehicles work for them when not in use.
Indeed, having one’s Cybercab hard at work offering ride-hailing services for others, rather than sitting still in a parking lot, is a profound concept. And I think a reality that may not be all too far off! Perhaps it’s not too far-fetched to envision a future that sees parking lots going the way of the Dodo bird.
The bottom line
In the meantime, it seems like Uber (NASDAQ:UBER) shareholders have nothing to worry about as more cars on the road drive without anyone in the passenger’s seat. In three years, though, when Cybercab and Robovan arrive (hopefully), Tesla may be better equipped to transform the ride-hailing business the way Musk envisioned.
If TSLA stock is to join the $3 trillion club, it needs Cybercab and Robovan to be the autonomous robotaxi on the market. Who knows? If Musk can pull it off, he may become the world’s first trillionaire by 2027.
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