Investing
NIO (NIO) Stock Price Prediction and Forecast 2025-2030
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NIO (NYSE:NIO) is one of the hottest EV car companies in the world and a top 10 largest in the world (3rd largest in China). NIO stock made its debut on the New York Stock Exchange on September 12th, 2018, at $6.26 per share.
Within 3 years of trading, NIO stock hit an all-time high of $62.84 in February 2021 before plummeting 91.65% to today’s price of $5.25 per share.
While the share price run-up in early 2020 was purely a momentum push, NIO brand in the EV market was not tarnished. In fact, the car company is still seen as a premium EV player and one of the first companies to address range anxiety issues by creating battery swap technology as a supplement to charging.
24/7 Wall Street aims to provide readers with our assumptions about the stock’s prospects going forward, what growth we see in NIO stock for the next several years, and what our best estimates are for NIO’s stock price each year through 2030.
10/28/2024
Analysts from Macquarie have upgraded their predictions for NIO’s stock to “Outperform” with a price target of $6.60, leading to a rise in the stock’s share price today.
10/25/2024
NIO is releasing a new model under its EV brand, Onvo, following the recent debut of the Onvo L60 last month. This second model is expected to be released by the end of the first quarter in 2025.
10/24/2024
NIO’s share price fell today by 3.9%, trading as low as $4.98.
10/23/2024
NIO is expanding its network of battery swap stations in central China. The company has partnered with Wuhan Shouyi to build 100 new stations in Hubei province, which will offer both battery swapping and charging services.
10/21/2024
Chinese stocks listed in the U.S. experienced a drop in price before the market opened today, including NIO. This decline came after China’s government lowered its interest rates slightly. NIO’s shares traded as low as $5.07 today.
10/18/2024
Despite recent concerns regarding China’s new stimulus plans, NIO’s stock increased today for the first time in four days.
10/17/2024
NIO’s stock prices continue to fall due to concern for China’s economy. Today they fell 6.72% and traded as low as $5.14.
10/15/2024
NIO is continuing to experience a decline in its stock price. Shares are down 3.3% today, trading as low as $5.55, and have fallen by 10% since the beginning of the week.
10/14/2024
NIO’s stock has taken a big hit today. Investors were disappointed with China’s new plan to boost its economy, which was announced over the weekend. NIO’s stock is very sensitive to changes in China’s economy, and the country’s recent plan did not provide sufficient details to encourage investors.
10/10/2024
NIO is preparing to launch a new, more affordable brand called “Firefly”. This new brand will have its official debut at NIO Day 2024 in December, where the company will also unveil its first flagship model under the Firefly line.
The following is a table of NIO’s revenues, operating income, and share price for the first few years as a public company.
Here’s a table summarizing performance in share price, revenues, and profits (net income) from 2014 to 2018.
Share Price (End of Year) |
Revenues (CNY) | Operating Income | |
2018 | $5.39 | 4,951.2 | (9,595.6) |
2019 | $3.45 | 7,824.9 | (11,079.2) |
2020 | $40.00 | 16,257.9 | (4,607.6) |
2021 | $16.70 | 36,136.4 | (4,496.3) |
2022 | $7.87 | 49,268.6 | (15,640.7) |
2023 | $4.71 | 55,617.9 | (22,655.2) |
Revenue and operating income in Billion CNY (1CNY=.14 USD)
Now let’s take a look at Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN) the first few years it was a publicly traded company (here is Rivian’s stock price forecast):
Share Price (End of Year) |
Revenues | Operating Income | |
2021 | $50.24 | $55.0 | ($4,220.0) |
2022 | $19.30 | $1,658.0 | ($6,856.0) |
2023 | $10.70 | $4,434.0 | ($5,739.0) |
TTM | $15.35 | $4,997.0 | (5,790.0) |
The revenue growth for both firms is similar but Rivian’s operating loss is more than double the yearly operating loss of NIO.
NIO formerly contracted its manufacturing to Jianghuai Automobile Group, paying a fee for each vehicle produced in addition to fixed cost. They have since acquired the factory from JAC. This agreement is beneficial for a young start-up in a very capital-intensive market. However, when scale is reached, the variable cost model has its downsides.
Year | Revenue | Shares Outstanding | P/S Est. |
2025 | 97,052 | 2,050 mm | 1x |
2026 | 114,172 | 2,050 mm | 1x |
2027 | 134,643 | 2,050 mm | 1.5x |
2028 | 257,634 | 2,050 mm | 1.5x |
2029 | 176,533 | 2,050 mm | 1.5x |
2030 | 189,548 | 2,050 mm | 2x |
Revenue in CYN millions
Compared to Rivian and Tesla, NIO’s price-to-sales valuation will be moderately discounted. While NIO is in solid financial standing and has a premium brand image, it’s still uncertain how much competition the company will face in China and expanding overseas. The company is already spending a quarter of revenues on R&D and if NIO can’t capitalize on this spend, the stock price will be sluggish compared to North American EV manufacturers.
Wall Street analysts have NIO’s stock price over the next year to be $6.94 which gives the stock a 32.19% upside over today’s price of $5.25. Of the 26 analysts covering the stock, the consensus recommendation is a 2.07 ‘Outperform’ Score.
We expect to see revenue growth of 60% for 2025, with a price-to-sales multiple of 1x, which puts our price target at $6.63, an upside of 26.29%.
Going into 2026, we estimate the price to be $7.80, with another strong 50%+ revenue bump. However, with EBITDA still well in the negative, we see the market not rewarding the stock as much and giving it a lower valuation multiple, resulting in an upside of 48.57%.
Heading into 2027, we expect the stock price increase to leap forward to $13.80 with another strong 50%+ revenue growth year-over-year. That is a 97% year-over-year gain and up 162.86% from today’s stock price.
When predicting more than 3 years out, we expect NIO’s P/S ratio in 2028 to be 1.5x and top-line growth of 50%. In 2028, we have NIO’s revenue coming in around $36 billion, suggesting a stock price estimate at $26.39 or a gain of 402.67% over the current stock price.
24/7 Wall Street expects NIO’s stock to continue its revenue growth and to generate $25 billion in revenue. The stock price in 2029 is estimated at $18.08, or a gain of 244.38% over today’s price.
We estimate NIO’s stock price to be $25.89 per share. Our estimated stock price will be 393.14% higher than the current stock price.
Year | Price Target | % Change From Current Price |
2024 | $6.94 | Upside of 21.19% |
2025 | $6.63 | Upside of 26.29% |
2026 | $7.80 | Upside of 48.57% |
2027 | $13.80 | Upside of 162.86% |
2028 | $26.39 | Upside of 402.67% |
2029 | $18.08 | Upside of 244.38% |
2030 | $25.89 | Upside of 393.14% |
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