Outside of NVIDIA’s (NASDAQ: NVDA) recent share price going stratospheric, Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) has been a Wall Street darling since the company IPO’d in May 1997 at a split-adjusted price of $.07.

Today, Amazon stock trades for $195.09, which means that stock is up over 199787.30% since May 1997, turning every $1000 invested into $1.999 million today.

The only thing that matters from this point on is what the stock will do for the next 1, 5, and 10 years and beyond. Let’s crunch the numbers and give you our best guest on Amazon’s future share price. No one has a crystal ball and even the Wall Street “experts” are often wrong more than they are right in predicting future stock prices. We will walk through our assumptions and provide you with the story around the numbers (other sites just pick a share price without explaining why they suggest the price they do). 

Key Points in this Article: 

• Future stock performance hinges on Amazon’s growth in e-commerce, AWS, and advertising amidst increasing competition.
• Amazon’s revenue grew 540% in the last decade, with net income rising to $30.42 billion in 2023 and projections over the next 5 years at 4.5x.
• If you’re looking for a megatrend with massive potential, make sure to grab a complimentary copy of our “The Next NVIDIA” report. The report includes a complete industry map of AI investments that includes many small caps.

Recent Amazon Stock Updates and News

• 11/4/2024- The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) denied Amazon’s request to draw more power from a nearby Pennsylvania nuclear plant. This decision could hinder efforts by Amazon and other tech giants to secure additional energy from nuclear sources to fuel their growing AI operations.
• 10/31/2024- Amazon released its third-quarter financial report today, reporting numbers beyond Wall Street expectations. The company reported a revenue of $158.9 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $157.2 billion. Earnings per share came in at $1.43 compared to the $1.16 anticipated by Bloomberg analysts.
• 10/28/2024- Tom Hoggett, the driving force behind Amazon’s rapid grocery expansion, has left the company to become the Chief Operating Officer of Wonder, a food hall startup.
• 10/25/2024- Amazon’s third-quarter earnings report is scheduled for release next Thursday (October 31st). Investors are eager to see if the company can deliver results that meet their expectations this time around, especially after a mixed performance in the second quarter.
• 10/24/2024- Amazon is ending its “Amazon Today” delivery service, which allows customers to get items delivered quickly from select malls and physical stores. Some stores will still be able to use Amazon Today until January 24, 2025.
• 10/23/2024- Amazon has added a new fuel savings incentive for Prime members. Anyone with an Amazon Prime membership can now save $0.10 per gallon at 7,000 gas stations in the United States.
• 10/18/2024- Matt Garman, CEO of Amazon Web Services, has responded to employee complaints regarding the new return-to-office policy by explaining that employees are welcome to leave Amazon and to find other companies to work for.
• 10/17/2024- Today Amazon announced that it has partnered with two energy companies to develop small modular reactions (SMRs). The company will help fund the development of an SMR at the North Anna Plant Station in Virginia and in Washington state.
• 10/15/2024- Amazon and Databricks have teamed up to make building artificial intelligence models more affordable. They’ve signed a 5-year agreement to use Amazon’s powerful Trainium chips.
• 10/14/2024- Amazon has recently announced changes to make its grocery shopping more convenient for Prime members. The company is converting 26 of its Amazon Fresh fulfillment centers to stock popular products from Whole Foods Market, Amazon Fresh, and Amazon.com. In addition, Amazon’s pilot program for ordering both Amazon.com items and grocery items at the same time and have them shipped together is now available in Phoenix.

Amazon’s Recent Stock Success 

Here’s a table summarizing performance in share price, revenues, and profits (net income) from 2014 to 2017.

	Share Price	Revenues*	Net Income*
2014	$19.94	$89.0	($.241)
2015	$15.63	$107.0	$.596
2016	$32.81	$136.0	$2.371
2017	$37.90	$177.9	$3.03
2018	$58.60	$232.9	$10.07
2019	$73.26	$280.5	$11.59
2020	$93.75	$386.1	$21.33
2021	$163.50	$469.8	$33.36
2022	$167.55	$514.0	($2.72)
2023	$85.46	$574.78	$30.42

*Revenue and Net Income in Billions

In the last decade, Amazon’s revenue grew about 540% while its net income moved from losing money to 30.42 billion in profits this past year. The ride up wasn’t always smooth, however. For example, in 2020, sales jumped 38%, and net income nearly doubled. 2021 saw a continued boom as people moved to e-commerce shopping during Covid. However, all those sales being “pulled forward” led to challenges in 2022, and the company swung to a surprise loss. As Amazon embarks into the back half of the decade, a few different key areas will determine its performance.

3 Key Drivers of Amazon’s Stock Performance

1. E-Commerce Success: While Covid brought record sales to Amazon, it also led to many competitors investing heavily to compete with Amazon online. While e-commerce is still just 15% of retail sales, putting up huge growth rates in online sales won’t be as easy in the coming years as it was a decade ago.
2. Amazon Web Services: Amazon Web Services 1st quarter 2024 revenue was $25.04 billion and the unit should break $100 billion in total sales this year. However, the unit’s 13% year-over-year growth isn’t as fast as competing cloud services like Microsoft’s (Nasdaq: MSFT) Azure and Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOGL) Cloud. Amazon is at risk of falling behind Microsoft before 2030 if it can’t stop market share losses.
3. Advertising: Amazon exits 2023 with a $47 billion advertising business that grew 24% in 2023. Advertising has the ability to be another high-margin business line – Amazon currently gets most of its profits from its AWS cloud business – which has led the company past $100 billion in annual profits.

Amazon (AMZN) Stock Price Prediction in 2025

The current consensus 1-year price target for Amazon stock is $220.00, which is a 12.77% upside from today’s stock price of $195.09. Of all the analysts covering Amazon, the stock is a consensus buy, with a 1.37 “Buy” rating.

24/7 Wall Street’s 12-month forecast projects Amazon’s stock price to be $225. We see AWS continue its current 12% growth rate but see Amazon’s advertising business outperforming analyst expectations, particularly in the 4th quarter of 2024 with more streaming ad impressions being sold.

Amazon (AMZN) Stock Forecast Through 2030 

• AWS: Assuming AWS stems its market share loss and investments in AI to counterbalance the threat from Microsoft and Google. 
• E-Commerce: Amazon continues to pour investments into e-commerce, forgoing added profits to maintain market share. Our case model assumes growth in new logistics and efficiencies from robotics in warehouses leads to this unit finally delivering strong operating profits.
• Advertising: Amazon’s advertising continued to grow and the now $47 billion business unit and we see a high teens growth rate compounded annually. 

Add all these numbers up and take out some amount for “new bets” the company will surely be investing in (and a potential dividend boost)and we see revenue in 2030 at $1.15 trillion and $131 billion in net income. Today, the company trades for about 50X earnings, which we’ll take down to 35 times as the company matures (but continues showing growth). In our analysis, Amazon is worth $2.6 trillion in 2030. Here are our revenue, net income, and company size estimates through 2030:

	Revenue	Net Income	Total Enterprise Value
2024	$638	$48.56	$1.93
2025	$710	$62.13	$2.12
2026	$788	$79.68	$2.19
2027	$867	$96.53	$2.29
2028	$957	$114.17	$2.39
2029	$1,049	$136.69	$2.5
2030	$1,149	$131.39	$2.6

*Revenue and net income reported in billions and TEV in trillions

Amazon’s Share Price Estimates 2025-2030

How Amazon’s Next 5 Years Could Play Out

We expect to see revenue growth of just over 11% and EPS of $5.74 for 2025. We expect the stock to still trade at a similar multiple next year, putting our estimate for the stock price for Amazon at $287 in 2025, which is 47.11% higher than the stock is trading today.

Going into 2026, we estimate the price to be $371, after revenue estimates to come in around 10% higher year-over-year. With an EPS of $7.42 and in our opinion the last year Amazon trades near its current P/E of 50, 2026 could mark the year Amazon starts trading at a more mature valuation closer to 35 times earnings. That would represent a 90.17% gain over today’s share price of $195.09.

Heading into 2027, we expect the stock price increase not to be as pronounced as more tempered growth is expected from Amazon and even with earnings estimates of $8.80 per share, the stock price target for the year is $308.00. That is a 17% year hit from the previous year, but still up 57.88% from today’s stock price.

When predicting more than 3 years out, we expect Amazon to continue growing its top line at 10% but be more efficient and operating margins to grow. In 2028, we have Amazon’s revenue coming in around $957 billion and an EPS of $10.34 suggesting a stock price estimate at $361.90 or a gain of 85.50% over the current stock price.

24/7 Wall Street expects Amazon to continue its 10% revenue growth again and to generate $12.30 per share of earnings. With a price-to-earnings multiple of 35, the stock price in 2029 is estimated at $430.50, or a gain of 120.67% over today’s price.

Amazon Stocks Price Target for 2030

We estimate Amazon’s stock price to be $370 per share with 10% year-over-year revenue growth but compressed margins from more competition in its AWS unit. Our estimated stock price for Amazon will be 89.99% higher than the current stock price, marking a double in Amazon’s stock price today of $195.09.

Year	Price Target	% Change From Current Price
2024	$226.50	Upside of 16.10%
2025	$287.00	Upside of 47.11%
2026	$371.00	Upside of 90.17%
2027	$308.00	Upside of 57.88%
2028	$361.90	Upside of 85.50%
2029	$430.50	Upside of 120.67%
2030	$370.65	Upside of 89.99%

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