Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) is the world’s largest cryptocurrency, and certainly the most notable and closely-watched digital asset in the world. Conceived after the Great Recession as a means for users to transfer value around the world outside of the government-controlled monetary system, Bitcoin has risen to fame as an asset class of its own. Many investors put their capital to work in Bitcoin not for the utility it provides as a value-transfer mechanism or currency, but rather as its value as an investment or store of value outside the monetary system.
As an investment, Bitcoin prices continue to fluctuate alongside various market factors. One such factor that’s clearly playing into today’s incredible 7.5% 24-hour move in Bitcoin is news that Donald Trump will once again take the mantle as president of the United States.
With this move, Bitcoin is now within spitting distance of its new all time high. Let’s dive into whether it’s possible Bitcoin could double from here, or go to roughly $150,000 per token, by the end of Trump’s presidency.
Key Points About This Article:
- Bitcoin is among the most closely-watched assets in the world, and it’s pushing toward a new all-time high after Donald Trump’s recent victory over Kamala Harris.
- Let’s dive into what this recent move could mean for Bitcoin over the course of the next four years, and if a doubling is in order for Bitcoin.
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Bitcoin’s Historical Price Action Is Impressive
Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. All investors know that. But looking at Bitcoin’s historical performance can be important for those who may want to chart out where this token could be headed from here.
Over most time frames, Bitcoin has largely trended higher, as inflation has eroded the value of the dollar and more and more transactions are processed on the blockchain. Of course, the whole store of value argument for owning Bitcoin is a bit of a nebulous one – there are many instances where market fears lead to selloffs in all risk assets (including Bitcoin), with higher correlation than many Bitcoin bulls would like to acknowledge. However, I do think there’s some fundamental value to this overarching thesis, and that’s borne out by the willingness of investors to not only buy and hold Bitcoin, but do so for very long periods of time.
This recent move in Bitcoin has been a rather incredible one, with the token’s year-to-date performance greatly outpacing the overall market, which is also up considerably since January 1. Bitcoin has surged more than 70% this year, as investors price in a number of catalysts and rely on historical price action trends to justify investing at current levels. When Bitcoin doubles, it often doubles again, so if we do see this token breach the $90,000 mark, many technical investors may be bracing for another quick doubling on the horizon. That’s at least part of the sentiment building around this token right now, I think.
Other Catalysts to Consider
This year, the Securities and Exchange Commission officially approved spot Bitcoin ETFs, which opened up an entirely new wave of capital inflows into this particular asset class. Following these approvals, Bitcoin halved its mining rewards, effectively limiting the amount of new Bitcoin that are minted every day from mining activities (solving complex mathematical problems to secure the blockchain). Doing so has led to a supply and demand imbalance, which many investors expected would continue to result in rising Bitcoin prices. And while the world’s largest crypto did mint a fresh all-time high this year, volatility since then has been robust, and this token has only begun to approach the levels seen in Q1 in recent days.
I do think that these supply and demand dynamics will continue to be important, and that’s really the key story around Bitcoin. This is a safe haven asset class (or at least perceived to be, by many investors) that benefits from higher buying demand and lower issuance. If we do see a Trump-linked surge in institutional demand into spot Bitcoin ETFs following the election, and this trend continues for the coming months, it’s entirely possible that Bitcoin could effectively double in a much shorter time frame than the next four years.
So, It’s a Done Deal Then?
Nothing is certain in the world of investing, and that goes double for Bitcoin. While I certainly think this top mega-cap token is likely poised for a doubling over the next four years (and likely much sooner than that), Bitcoin has also experienced periods where it drops by 80% or more in a relatively short amount of time. Thus, investors in this particular asset class need to have the stomach for volatility, and the patience to wait out these “crypto winters,” which we saw materialize in 2022/2023.
However, I’m also cognizant that this particular token has seen very strong momentum of late, and I’d expect this momentum to continue in the coming weeks as investors look for ways to play a Trump presidency starting in 2025. Bitcoin remains among the top Trump trades in the market right now, and I don’t think that’s going to change anytime soon. Barring some sort of major market event, I’d entirely expect this top digital currency to eclipse the $150,000 mark before Trump’s term ends.
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