Investing

Trump’s Election Is The End of American Aid To Ukraine

Austin Smith

Published: November 27, 2024 8:27 am

Key Points:

• Testing red lines without setting off a nuclear reaction, the Biden government let Ukraine employ HIMARS further into Russia.
• Trump’s government is supposed to decrease American assistance to Ukraine and advocate a quick peace negotiations.
• Given the reality on the ground—including Russia’s control on Crimea and other territories— Ukraine’s aspirations to rebuild its 1991 boundaries seem dubious.
• Also, credit card companies are offering incredible rewards for new borrowers today. See our top picks with the best rewards by clicking here now.

Flywheel Publishing has partnered with CardRatings for our coverage of credit card products. Flywheel Publishing and CardRatings may receive a commission from card issuers.

Watch the Video

Transcript:

[00:00:00] Austin: Let’s look towards a very specific and high tension, high tension situation, which is Ukraine. So there’s been some really interesting developments in Ukraine in the last few weeks, specifically the Biden administration has now permitted the country to use, their high Mars deeper into Russia’s territory.

[00:00:17] Austin: And we, there are a lot of people are saying, well, Hey, it’s about time, you know, that this sort of this kid’s glove approach was not allowing Ukraine to do what they needed to on the battlefield. But at the same time, It’s easy to forget that over the last three years, roughly the threats from Russia have been red line, red line, red line.

[00:00:35] Austin: And, you know, this was one of the red lines that they stated that would be considered an active war similar to the way the granting of F 16s were considered in the same vein. So we’ve seen a progressive, let’s say testing of Russia’s boundaries. And so far things have not gone nuclear. Thank God. But.

[00:00:52] Austin: that has been an interesting dynamic that’s unfolded over the last three years. And now, Ukraine has been given, let’s say, you know, greater, greater freedom to be offensive with Russia. What does this mean? And what does Trump’s administration specifically mean for Ukraine now that the Biden administration has, made this concession, for lack of a better word?

[00:01:12] Michael Muir: Yeah, well, I think it’s a, a really, think interesting isn’t quite the word I want to use here, but the direction that we seem to be going in as quite revealing. Now, you know, we have. Discuss Ukraine quite a lot here because, you know, it’s an ongoing situation. It’s the main, you know, it’s getting a lot of attention now. I think, you know, with, Trump’s election, we are pretty much going to see the end of American aid to Ukraine. I think Biden was hoping to get one more package through. that’s simply not going to happen now. there is a lot of, you know, there was ambivalence on the campaign trail with, you know, Trump and JD Vance suggesting they weren’t terribly invested in the conflict.

[00:01:53] Michael Muir: But I think the main thing that Trump is wanting, is going to want to do is to wrap this up really quickly. You know, he fancies himself a dealmaker. I think he wants to negotiate a swift end to the conflict. Now, what Biden is doing here, I think, is a calculated risk. know, as we’ve talked about, red line after red line, you know, the consequences of pushing Russia too far are, you know, kind of speak for themselves.

[00:02:16] Michael Muir: So, it was quite restrained initially. but this idea that Ukraine is not going to, be able to rely on American support, you know, going forward, I think it’s kind of a last throw of the dice. It’s the last little bit of, escalation to try and get the best possible peace deal with the incoming administration.

[00:02:35] Michael Muir: I think that’s the calculation that’s being made. you know, if we look at what Ukraine wants to get from this war. You know, we do know, we have some details, not all of them, of Zelensky’s victory plan, what he’s aspiring to do. then if we contrast that with the situation on the ground, we see there’s a fair distance between the two points. So Ukraine’s ultimate aim is restoration of the 1991 borders. which does not really seem to be tethered to the reality of the situation. you know, Crimea was annexed 10 years ago. I think they pretty much just have to write that off at this point. then the territory that Russia holds now, know, they’re not going to give that up as long as they have it.

[00:03:13] Michael Muir: But I think the key here is Kursk and that is a pretty strong bargaining chip. If Ukraine can maintain control of it, but then one aspect of invading Russian territory, and this was something that we forecast before was this defense pact with North Korea by the letter of the agreement by going into Russian territory that did technically allow North Korea to get involved, which appears to be what they’ve done right now, the current deployment of North Korean troops are pretty limited.

[00:03:40] Michael Muir: I think it’s about 13, 000, but that number could grow to 100, 000. That is what one possible forecast for North Korea’s involvement. So, for a nation of Ukraine whose biggest problem right now is a lack of manpower, 100, 000 fresh troops into the conflict, you know, that is, Really, really unwelcome news, obviously.

[00:04:01] Michael Muir: and I think if Russia can regain Kursk and keep a hold of its territory, they’re in a very favorable negotiating position. I think it’s right now between, let’s say, well, as we’re talking November 2024 Trump’s inauguration January 25, I think for Ukraine, it’s going to be just try to get. The most favorable position possible because I just don’t think that, materially Europe cannot make up for America pulling its support. so I think it’s okay. Zelensky’s got this impossible decision to make. Do I try to advance my position now and take the best bad deal possible? Or do I fight to the bitter end with limited support and try to outlast the Russians, which doesn’t really appear to be a terribly realistic plan.

[00:04:43] Michael Muir: and this is the horrible decision that, you know, Ukraine’s left to make. And another thing, you know, it’s something I always talk about, which often gets overlooked in military analysis is the political situation. you know, it’s a common theme we’ve seen that partner nations. The domestic situation within them turning away from Ukrainian support. You know, there’s a rising sort of tide of right wing populism, which is It’s typically skeptical of intervention foreign conflict.

[00:05:11] Michael Muir: So results have not been going the right way for sort of pro Ukrainian forces in those nations.

[00:05:17] Austin: Right.

[00:05:18] Michael Muir: so that’s going to see a dwindling of support. And then if we actually look at opinion polls within Ukraine itself, while a majority still want to carry on the struggle that among military age Ukrainians, the recognition, The most recent opinion polls I’ve seen is there has been a drop in, Not necessarily support for the war, but just the recognition that we’re going to have to negotiate at some point let’s do it while we still have a nation remaining rather than, you know, negotiate over the

[00:05:47] Austin: Mhm. And when you talk, when you talk about the populism shift, I mean, let’s be specific. We’re talking a little bit about the European Union specifically, and and and nations like Italy, certainly making a clear rightward shift among others, which will make support for Ukraine more challenging. I believe I believe the data you’re referencing.

[00:06:06] Austin: I saw as well. which was that roughly one in three Ukrainians now would like to, negotiate for peace, which was as low as one in 10 just a few months ago. But, but as we entered, you know, I think we’re at day 1000 and change of the war right now, you know, this is, this is the strategy that we have been talking about for years, which is Russia’s war of attrition and just grinding down its enemy as, as capable as they may be.

[00:06:32] Austin: Russia has a much larger population, much larger military base, much more resources to continue to throw at this conflict. And now the addition of North Korean soldiers just, just further extends that runway.

[00:06:44] Michael Muir: Yeah.

[00:06:45] Austin: Right. Right.

[00:06:57] Michael Muir: weapons being used then having the more the delivery more timely because there’s been a huge gap between. Support being pledged and actually arriving. I think the only nation, this is from the latest information that I saw. So it could be a little out of date. It was a couple of months ago. The only nation that is fully, that has fulfilled its, pledges as Poland and that they haven’t really been providing military support in the last year. and we, you know, when we talked about the struggle to get F 16s into Ukraine, that took years. so I think the support. That has been pledged, isn’t arriving quickly enough, and it is not sufficient for the war, you know, Ukraine wants to fight. Now, when you’re badly short of manpower, I’m reminded a little bit of the British experience of World War II. Manpower was a key critical issue for the British Armed Forces, and their strategy was, it could be summarized, I think it was Bernard Montgomery said, let the metal do the work. Overwhelming firepower in place of blood to win victories, and that worked very well in North Africa, but obviously not so much in Europe. I, I wonder if, you know, superior firepower with modern weapons is a viable strategy for Ukraine, but that depends on support getting there and it’s not going to arrive anymore. So I just, I’m struggling to see how Ukraine can get a favorable outcome, at the negotiations, at least towards the position that they, you know, they stated. another big sticking point is going to be membership of NATO. obviously Russia’s, I was staunchly against that for obvious reasons. one proposed taste plan I did see was putting a pause on it for, I think, 20 years. obviously Ukraine’s not going to go for that either. And this is, you know, the big problem with these negotiations is that is a huge sticking point, and they’re both miles apart on that.

[00:08:40] Michael Muir: I think it’s a concession. I’m not sure we’re going to let them join the EU. Very generous of them. But, The border situation for Ukraine is going to be critical. And I think one plan I did see, I think it wasn’t officially from the Trump campaign, but someone aligned with Trump. So, you know, take that for what it is with a pinch of salt.

[00:08:58] Michael Muir: But I think the idea is going to be to have a sort of buffer zone manned by European allies, because again, Trump is going to be very reluctant to deploy U. S. troops

[00:09:07] Austin: Right.

[00:09:07] Michael Muir: to maintain that buffer zone. But that would be one way of sort of guaranteeing the peace. But again, you know, Ukraine’s obviously going to be concerned with long term security because, you know, Russia’s invaded once just because they, you know, manage, you know, if they’re able to extract a favorable peace deal doesn’t mean they’re going to go away forever. They want to prevent this ever happening again. So joining NATO is one aspect and then building up non nuclear deterrence was something else. again, I’m just not sure how that, with the present situation and dwindling support, how they can achieve that.

Flywheel Publishing has partnered with CardRatings for our coverage of credit card products. Flywheel Publishing and CardRatings may receive a commission from card issuers.