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Trump Doesn’t Have A Clear Exit Point With Israel, And That’s A Problem

Austin Smith

Published: November 28, 2024 8:27 am

Key Points:

• Influenced by people like Mike Huckabee, Trump’s government will likely eschew a two-state solution.
• With an emphasis on military solutions but no obvious road to long-lasting peace, the struggle with Hamas and tensions with Iran should becoming more intense.
• Unlike issues in garnering support for other conflicts like Ukraine, bipartisan support in Congress guarantees strong U.S. backing for Israel.
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Transcript:

[00:00:00] Austin: And of course, you know, another conflict where there is strong bipartisan support is Israel. So, so let’s turn our attention there. Final topic here, what, what situation will Trump face in Israel and what will his support look like? And will he be constrained in his effort to, you know, we need to remember that the Abraham Accords were sort of, you know, at the 11th hour of being signed, which would have been sort of the hallmark peace achievement, many, many, many years ago.

[00:00:25] Austin: Suggest in the Middle East of Trump’s presidency now that seems largely gone for the moment, you know, that that situation is now possible with the current dynamic, but Trump likely does have strong bipartisan support for Israel in Congress. So maybe I mean, what is possible? What will Trump try and do here to get back to the state that, you know, the Middle East was at the end of his presidency?

[00:00:49] Michael Muir: Yeah, well, I do wonder if that is even possible at this point, but, yeah, I think, you know, we can refer to the previous, the term, you know, the Abraham McCord, which you bring up, important, but, you know, what signals do we have? All we can see is, is, rhetoric on the campaign trail. I think it’s going to be more permissive, although having said that. practical terms, I don’t think the Biden administration really placed any serious constraints on, you know, Israel’s, Israel carries, is carrying out, the war in Gaza. So whatever restraints, were in place by the Biden administration probably won’t be under the Trump administration. another signal that we can look at is who was chosen as ambassador, and that’s Mike Huckabee, who’s very forthright in his support for Israel and in his rejection of a two state solution.

[00:01:36] Michael Muir: So I think the Biden administration paid some lip service to that. but I don’t think there’s really any strong support for that, in the incoming Trump administration. And equally, I know Netanyahu has pretty strongly rejected that possibility, too. the problem that, we’re seeing is that where’s the exit point in this current conflict?

[00:01:56] Michael Muir: We’ve seen a lot of escalation in the last few months, and the situation with Iran. Now, his previous, posture towards Iran was maximum pressure, you know, through sanctions and I don’t know if we’re going to see a continuation of that, you know, pulling out a nuclear deal probably makes the possibility of an equitable peace in the long term quite difficult. this is going to be an ongoing situation. I think that, isn’t necessarily going to be solved in the next term. we may see a close to the conflict, in the next sort of 12 to 18 months, but beyond that, because I think the problem with the war, the way it’s being carried out is just creating further problems down the road. the problem with counterinsurgency as this war primarily is, is that it’s easy to win the conventional conflict, but securing the peace is extremely difficult. we haven’t seen that so far, so I don’t imagine that’s going to change an awful lot. I think there will be plenty of support. For Israel, provide, you know, there will be, be very easy to get that through Congress, whereas Ukraine, that’d be very difficult with Israel.

[00:03:02] Michael Muir: That would be very straightforward.it’s really difficult to make a definitive prediction about what’s going to happen, but I think it’s going to be, at least in the intro, more of the same, for

[00:03:11] Michael Muir: or worse, and I just don’t see this being resolved in the, you know, you may make. big proclamations to the counter, but I just don’t see, a lasting long term solutions.

[00:03:22] Michael Muir: This, I think, is just a temporary pause in hostilities before they kick off again.

[00:03:28] Austin: It does seem that you probably characterize the situation perfectly over the short, medium and long term, which is a an ease to win individual conflicts and the ability to do that. But a long term challenge to achieving peace that that feels like the story of the Middle East for, you know, for a long time.

[00:03:42] Austin: you know, as long as our political history goes back, unfortunately. So, you know, Trump certainly has his hands full. we know that Mike Huckabee is very pro Israel. we do not expect Israel to necessarily be limited in their response to Hamas or Iran based on the administration. But can we get back to a place of peace?

[00:04:02] Austin: And can we get back to a place where the Abraham Accords, at least You know, suggested we may be going that seems very distant, although, you know, we’re, we’re, we’re hopeful and optimistic that that piece can enter the region.

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