Anyone worried about the American consumer should be less anxious. Online buying for Black Friday set a new record. According to Adobe Analytics, which tracks over one trillion visits to retail sites, Black Frida sales hit $7.9 billion at 6:30 PM Eastern, up 8.8% from the same period in 2023. Its researchers expect that the figure will be between $10.7 billion and $11 billion for the entire day, which will be a record. Almost 60% of the purchases were made from mobile devices.
Some sales could come at the expense of revenue for dates later in the shopping season. Vivek Pandya, lead analyst of Adobe Digital Insights, said, “This is being driven by big discounts in advance of Cyber Monday, as well as the continued acceleration of mobile commerce that is contributing to more impulse shopping.” Adobe expects Cyber Monday sales to reach $13.2 billion, up 6.1% compared to a year ago.
One question about online revenue for Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday is whether they draw sales from the start of December to Christmas. It is far too early to tell. However, if December numbers are low, people may have shopped early, which undermines the performance of the holiday shopping season.
Aside from healthy consumers, there is a chance that shoppers are being driven by what could be large tariffs set by the Trump Administration. These tariffs would raise the price of untold numbers of products, denting consumer discretionary spending. If so, retail activity could be badly damaged after the first of the year.
A final question is who the winners and losers will be even if holiday spending is strong. Early comments by large retailers indicate that Walmart, the country’s largest retailer, will do well. Management at Target (NYSE: TGT) suggested that the balance of 2024 would be a challenge.
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