Investing

Nvidia Starts 2025 Off With a Bang. How Long Before It Surpasses Apple?

Rich Duprey

Published: January 6, 2025 1:14 pm

The new year is only a few days old and already Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is off to the races. Shares of the artificial intelligence chipmaker are up 11.5%, well ahead of the other Magnificent 7 stocks. With a $3.72 trillion market capitalization, NVDA stock just surpassed Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) at $3.70 trillion.

Considering just three years ago Nvidia was valued at only $359 billion while Apple was over $2 trillion, the semiconductor stock has been on a meteoric trajectory that really shows little sign of letting up. So, just how soon before NVDA surpasses AAPL?

24/7 Wall St. Key Points:

• Nvidia (NVDA) is within throwing distance of Apple‘s (AAPL) market valuation, indicating it will soon be the most valuable company on the market.
• Both companies face potential headwinds, though, and while neither is close to being fatal, it could make the battle for supremacy closer than expected.
• If you’re looking for some stocks with huge potential, make sure to grab a free copy of our brand-new “The Next NVIDIA” report. It features a software stock we’re confident has 10X potential.

Ready for three-peat?

Nvidia’s performance has been nothing short of miraculous. Shares soared 179% in 2024, an incredible performance considering it gained 240% the year before. Doubling again in 2025 would be an unprecedented achievement that could give Nvidia a $7 trillion market cap. It’s almost unfathomable to even wrap your head around. But is it possible?

CEO Jensen Huang has said demand for its soon-to-be-released Blackwell AI accelerator is “staggering.” Fiscal third quarter 2025 revenue for Nvidia’s data center revenue where its AI business is housed more than doubled from the year-ago period to $30.8 billion. It is up 174% year-to-date. With the next-generation Blackwell chip scheduled to hit the market early in the first three months of 2025 , a new round of frenzied buying by its customers is likely to ensue.

Or will it? The chipmaker said in October the its anticipated supply of Blackwell graphics processing units (GPUs) is already sold out until the end of the year as its biggest customers including Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL),Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), and Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) have gobbled them up. Anyone else is going to have to wait until 2026 at the earliest to receive any. They may not be able or willing to wait that long.

And competition is ramping up. Nvidia may be far ahead of the field, but not every customer needs the most advanced, complex architecture. That could give Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) and others ample opportunity to steal share.

With slowing growth rates in sales and profits, NVDA stock may not rise as quickly as some believe.

A worm at Apple’s core

While shares of Nvidia are rising, Apple stock is down 3.5% in 2025. It might not require the chipmaker stock to rise so much if Apple is going to meet it halfway. And Nvidia is not the only one who’s growth rates are slowing. The consumer electronics giant also faces potential headwinds.

Sales of $391 billion rose just 2% last year, but they are slightly lower than the $394 billion Apple recorded in 2022. Profits are down 6%. Across all of its major product lines, such as the iPhone, Mac, and iPad, sales are all lower from two years ago. The bright spot is services, which at $96 billion, is 23% higher than in 2022 and they are actually accelerating. Sales were up 13% last year versus a 9% increase the year before.

Still, Apple generates significant amounts of cash from its operations. It ended its fiscal year with $65 billion in cash, equivalents, and short-term investments, up from $61 billion in 2023. It produced over $105 billion in free cash flow last year. That leaves it free to buy back stock, which can help to artificially boost earnings per share, but also to increase its dividend, which yields 0.4% annually.

Apple can also use its available cash to invest more in its business, either through further technology advances or investing in other companies. It could also make acquisitions as well that could potentially boost growth.

Key takeaway

Neither stock is a diminishing asset and an investment in either is undoubtedly a good long-term investment. However, Nvidia seems to have the momentum behind it. Unless new problems crop up in the Blackwell chip such as those that forced it to push back its debut till the new year from its anticipated fourth-quarter release date, NVDA stock should overtake Apple shares sooner rather than later.

With a less than 10% increase need to push Nvidia over the threshold, I expect the chipmaker to become the most valuable stock on the market within the next three to four months.