Rivian Shares Down 88% in 2 Years

Investing

Published: January 7, 2025 8:15 am

When Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) went public in November 2021, its market cap surged to $100 billion and was briefly even higher. That put it well ahead of Ford and General Motors based on that yardstick. Today, its market cap is $16 billion, a fraction of those of GM and Ford. Rivian stock has dropped 88% since the initial public offering. What has brought it down are abysmal sales and a negative trend that has generally hurt electric vehicle (EV) sales outside China.

24/7 Wall St. Key Points:

Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) stock has retreated 88% since its initial public offering.
Abysmal unit sales and quarterly losses mean the share price is unlikely to recover.
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Where Rivian Stands Now

Rivian charging — What are the chances the stock recovers?

Rivian recently produced and delivered a shockingly small number of vehicles. Last year, it produced 49,476 vehicles and delivered 51,579. The company said a parts shortage had hit its results. The matter has since been corrected.

Rivian’s lifeline has been a venture with Volkswagen, which has had its own trouble with EVs. It appeared that the partnership would be worth $5.8 billion in investment and money put into creating a joint venture. However, $3.5 billion is based on milestones. That may be why a rally in Rivian’s stock was muted after the announcement. CNBC pointed out that “Automotive history is littered with failed partnerships, Rivian and VW are still competitors, and the EV transition has proven rockier than many forecasters had expected.”

There is also the matter of Rivian’s losses. In the most recent quarter, it had revenue of $874 million and lost $1.1 billion.

During a period when EVs have sold poorly, in part due to price, Rivian’s R1S Dual sells for $82,900.

And EVs continue to hit a series of walls that have hampered sales. Much of the public worries about charging times, the number of public charging stations, range on a single charge, and tire wear. And there is evidence that batteries do not take full charge in cold weather. Furthermore, a widely held belief is that adoption will not be widespread until sticker prices for EVs drop below $25,000.

Rivian’s unit sales and its losses mean the stock price will not recover

Rivian Price Prediction and Forecast

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