Investing
I've Never Owned Tesla's Stock, But If Elon Musk Can Pull Off These 3 Things, The Stock Is a Buy
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I won’t be the first investor to admit that I missed out on the generational gains to be had from shares of Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) over the past five years. Undoubtedly, over the timespan, TSLA stock has gained well north of 1,000%. And with plenty of promising growth drivers that go well above and beyond just electric vehicles (think Optimus robots and the Cybercab), there’s reason to stay on the ride if you’re already a shareholder.
There are a lot of potential drivers that can take TSLA shares even higher in the next three years.
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Though I’m not a big fan of the valuation of shares today or the technical picture, with shares coming in after the year-end melt-up to new all-time highs, I do acknowledge that growth drivers running behind the firm have the potential to support the stock as it continues defying the laws of gravity in the new year.
Undoubtedly, Elon Musk has been known to talk a big talk. However, he’s walked the walk on numerous occasions, helping propel TSLA shares to euphoric gains. In any case, not only does Musk need to execute when it comes to pushing out these transformative projects, but the timing also needs to be right. Being too early to the party can be the same thing as being wrong, at least for an investor.
In any case, here are three things Musk needs to get down if Tesla’s stock proves undervalued today at just north of $400 per share.
Some of the bulls out there, including Wedbush Securities’ senior equity researcher Dan Ives, who thinks Tesla can make good on the self-driving opportunity ahead. Ives, a man with a $515 price target on Tesla stock, believes in Tesla’s ability to capture a big chunk of what could be a $1 trillion robotaxi market. Further, Ives is a big fan of the regulatory environment under Trump, a close friend and now colleague of Musk.
Of course, there are many unanswered questions as Tesla moves toward achieving full self-driving (FSD) levels four and, eventually, five. Notably, when will level five be hit? Will the Cybercab really cost just $30,000 on launch day? Why did Tesla make it possible to own a Robotaxi? Will regulatory roadblocks be drastically lower under Trump? What about robotaxi rivals?
It’s tough to say right now. In any case, given the massive total addressable market in robotaxis, perhaps a lower admission price on Cybercab will be needed to get the wheels rolling faster than peers.
Tesla vehicles are expensive. However, that could change as the company looks to go big with a budget model rumored to be called the Model Q. Indeed, such a model would have a base price of $25,000, an absurdly competitive price that would be very difficult for rivals to keep up with. The big question is, what compromises will be made to achieve such a modest price tag?
For now, not a whole lot is known about the rumored cost-conscious model. It will be interesting to see what type of innovative battery solution the budget model will sport. Either way, if Tesla can get the Model Q right, it could capture a huge share of the low-end market and help drive sales growth to the next level. Indeed, it’s an exciting time for the company as it goes after the cost-conscious consumers.
Finally, Tesla stands out as a firm that could break new ground in home robotics at some point within the next few years. Reportedly, Tesla is shooting to sell humanoid robots as soon as 2026. Of course, it would be amazing to have an Optimus robot, like the ones serving drinks at the Cybercab event late last year, in our homes, helping with everyday chores. Though I wouldn’t get my hopes up for a 2026 launch (get ready for delays), I do think that Musk is serious about introducing physical AI into homes sooner rather than later.
At the latest CES, Musk expressed his belief that “most people, if not everyone, would probably like to have their own personal C-3PO or R2-D2,” Indeed, it’s tough to gauge how large the market is, but I’d be inclined to agree with Musk in that most folks would probably be willing to splurge on such a product.
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