Investing

Amazon Stock (AMZN) Price Prediction and Forecast 2025-2030 For February 12

Joel South

Published: February 12, 2025 4:54 pm

Shares of Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) slipped -1.65% on Wednesday and have now fallen -4.14% since market close last Thursday in the lead-up to the company’s Q4 earnings call, despite beating analysts’ revenue and EPS forecasts.

There were some glimmers of hope, though. Amazon announced that its advertising revenue surged to $17.3 billion as Thursday Night Football set streaming records by averaging 13.7 million viewers. That ad revenue represented 18% quarter-over-quarter growth. Additional revenue drivers included strong retail holiday spending and AI services through AWS — the largest cloud provider in the world.

The stock has gained 3.96% year-to-date and is up 37.25% over the past six moths. It recently hit its all-time high closing price of $238.15 on Jan. 28. Over the past month, as some tech stocks have struggled, shares of AMZN have gained 4.79% and are now up more than 32.84% over the past year.

Earlier in January, the stock jumped when Raymond James increased its price target for AMZN from $230 to $260. That follows a similar increase from BMO Capital Markets, which on Jan. 17 increased its price target for Amazon’s stock from $236 to $265 with an “Outperform” rating.

Outside of NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA), Amazon has been a Wall Street darling since the company IPO’d in May 1997 at a split-adjusted price of $0.07. Today, Amazon trades for $231.40, meaning the stock is up more than 10,698%% since January 2005.  However, the only thing that matters from this point on is what the stock will do for the next one, five and 10 years and beyond.

Let’s crunch the numbers and give you our best guest on Amazon’s future share price. No one has a crystal ball and even the Wall Street “experts” are often wrong more than they are right in predicting future stock prices. We will walk through our assumptions and provide you with the story around the numbers (other sites just pick a share price without explaining why they suggest the price they do).

Key Points in this Article: 

• Future stock performance hinges on Amazon’s growth in e-commerce, AWS, and advertising amidst increasing competition.
• Amazon’s revenue grew 540% in the last decade, with net income rising to $30.42 billion in 2023 and projections over the next five years at 4.5x.
• If you’re looking for a megatrend with massive potential, make sure to grab a complimentary copy of our “The Next NVIDIA” report. The report includes a complete industry map of AI investments that includes many small caps.

Amazon’s Recent Stock Success 

Here’s a table summarizing performance in share price, revenues, and profits (net income) from 2014 to 2017.

*Revenue and Net Income in Billions

In the last decade, Amazon’s revenue grew about 540% while its net income moved from losing money to 30.42 billion in profits this past year. The ride up wasn’t always smooth, however. For example, in 2020, sales jumped 38%, and net income nearly doubled. 2021 saw a continued boom as people moved to e-commerce shopping during Covid. However, all those sales being “pulled forward” led to challenges in 2022, and the company swung to a surprise loss. As Amazon embarks into the back half of the decade, a few different key areas will determine its performance.

3 Key Drivers of Amazon’s Stock Performance

1. E-Commerce Success: While Covid brought record sales to Amazon, it also led to many competitors investing heavily to compete with Amazon online. While e-commerce is still just 15% of retail sales, putting up huge growth rates in online sales won’t be as easy in the coming years as it was a decade ago.
2. Amazon Web Services: Amazon Web Services 1st quarter 2024 revenue was $25.04 billion and the unit should break $100 billion in total sales this year. However, the unit’s 13% year-over-year growth isn’t as fast as competing cloud services like Microsoft‘s (NASDAQ: MSFT) Azure and Alphabet‘s (NASDAQ: GOOGL) Google Cloud. Amazon is at risk of falling behind Microsoft before 2030 if it can’t stop market share losses.
3. Advertising: Amazon exited 2024 with $17.3 billion in advertising business during Q4 alone. Advertising has the ability to be another high-margin business line — Amazon currently gets most of its profits from its AWS cloud business — which has led the company past $100 billion in annual profits. 

Amazon (AMZN) Stock Price Prediction in 2025

The current consensus one-year price target for Amazon stock is $268.70, which is 9.45% upside from today’s closing price of $228.93. Of all the analysts covering Amazon, the stock is a consensus buy, with a 1.37 “Strong Buy” rating.

24/7 Wall Street‘s 12-month forecast projects Amazon’s stock price to be $225. We see AWS continue its current 12% growth rate but see Amazon’s advertising business outperforming analysts’ expectations.

Amazon (AMZN) Stock Forecast Through 2030 

• AWS: Assuming AWS stems its market share loss and investments in AI to counterbalance the threat from Microsoft and Google. 
• E-Commerce: Amazon continues to pour investments into e-commerce, forgoing added profits to maintain market share. Our case model assumes growth in new logistics and efficiencies from robotics in warehouses leads to this unit finally delivering strong operating profits.
• Advertising: Amazon’s advertising continued to grow and the now $47 billion business unit and we see a high teens growth rate compounded annually. 

Add all these numbers up and take out some amount for “new bets” the company will surely be investing in (and a potential dividend boost)and we see revenue in 2030 at $1.15 trillion and $131 billion in net income. Today, the company trades for about 50X earnings, which we’ll take down to 35 times as the company matures (but continues showing growth). In our analysis, Amazon is worth $2.6 trillion in 2030. Here are our revenue, net income, and company size estimates through 2030:

*Revenue and net income reported in billions and TEV in trillions

Amazon’s Share Price Estimates 2025-2030

Amazon Stocks Price Target for 2030

We estimate Amazon’s stock price to be $430.50 per share with 10% year-over-year revenue growth but compressed margins from more competition in its AWS unit. Our estimated stock price for Amazon will be 86.04% higher than the current stock price.