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Amazon Stock (AMZN) Price Prediction and Forecast 2025-2030 For February 19
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Shares of Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) gained 0.52% on Wednesday, which was not enough to dig them out of a -1.58% loss over the past five trading sessions. The stock is up 2.91% year-to-date and has gained 27.16% over the past six months.
During its Q4 2024 earnings call on Feb. 6, Amazon announced that its advertising revenue surged to $17.3 billion as Thursday Night Football set streaming records by averaging 13.7 million viewers. That ad revenue represented 18% quarter-over-quarter growth. Additional revenue drivers included strong retail holiday spending and AI services through AWS — the largest cloud provider in the world.
On Jan. 28, AMZN hit its all-time high closing price of $238.15. Over the past year, the e-commerce giant has posted a gain of 35.64%. In January, the stock jumped when Raymond James increased its price target for AMZN from $230 to $260. That follows a similar increase from BMO Capital Markets, which on Jan. 17 increased its price target for Amazon’s stock from $236 to $265 with an “Outperform” rating.
Outside of NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA), Amazon has been a Wall Street darling since the company IPO’d in May 1997 at a split-adjusted price of $0.07. Today, Amazon trades for $231.40, meaning the stock is up more than 10,698%% since January 2005. However, the only thing that matters from this point on is what the stock will do for the next one, five and 10 years and beyond.
Let’s crunch the numbers and give you our best guest on Amazon’s future share price. No one has a crystal ball and even the Wall Street “experts” are often wrong more than they are right in predicting future stock prices. We will walk through our assumptions and provide you with the story around the numbers (other sites just pick a share price without explaining why they suggest the price they do).
Key Points in this Article:
- Future stock performance hinges on Amazon’s growth in e-commerce, AWS, and advertising amidst increasing competition.
- Amazon posted net income of $59.2 billion in 2024, a 94.60% increase over 2023’s net income of $30.42 billion. Projections for net income over the next five years call for 4.5x.
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Amazon’s Recent Stock Success
Here’s a table summarizing performance in share price, revenues, and profits (net income) from 2014 to 2017.
| Year | Share Price | Revenues* | Net Income* |
| 2014 | $19.94 | $89.0 | ($.241) |
| 2015 | $15.63 | $107.0 | $.596 |
| 2016 | $32.81 | $136.0 | $2.371 |
| 2017 | $37.90 | $177.9 | $3.03 |
| 2018 | $58.60 | $232.9 | $10.07 |
| 2019 | $73.26 | $280.5 | $11.59 |
| 2020 | $93.75 | $386.1 | $21.33 |
| 2021 | $163.50 | $469.8 | $33.36 |
| 2022 | $167.55 | $514.0 | ($2.72) |
| 2023 | $85.46 | $574.78 | $30.42 |
| 2024 | $219.39 | $637.96 | $59.2 |
*Revenue and Net Income in Billions
From 2014 to 2024, Amazon’s revenue grew by 616.80%. The ride up wasn’t always smooth, however. For example, in 2020, sales jumped 38%, and net income nearly doubled. 2021 saw a continued boom as people moved to e-commerce shopping during Covid. However, all those sales being “pulled forward” led to challenges in 2022, and the company swung to a surprise loss. As Amazon embarks into the back half of the decade, a few different key areas will determine its performance.
3 Key Drivers of Amazon’s Stock Performance
- E-Commerce Success: While COVID-19 brought record sales to Amazon, it also led to many competitors investing heavily to compete with Amazon online. While e-commerce is still just 15% of retail sales, putting up huge growth rates in online sales won’t be as easy in the coming years as it was a decade ago.
- Amazon Web Services: Amazon Web Services 1st quarter 2024 revenue was $25.04 billion and the unit should break $100 billion in total sales this year. However, the unit’s 13% year-over-year growth isn’t as fast as competing cloud services like Microsoft‘s (NASDAQ: MSFT) Azure and Alphabet‘s (NASDAQ: GOOGL) Google Cloud. Amazon is at risk of falling behind Microsoft before 2030 if it can’t stop market share losses.
- Advertising: Amazon exited 2024 with $17.3 billion in advertising business during Q4 alone. Advertising has the ability to be another high-margin business line — Amazon currently gets most of its profits from its AWS cloud business — which has led the company past $100 billion in annual profits.
Amazon (AMZN) Stock Price Prediction in 2025
The current consensus one-year price target for Amazon stock is $268.91, which is 18.65% upside from today’s closing price. Of all the analysts covering Amazon, the stock is a consensus buy, with a 1.37 “Strong Buy” rating.
24/7 Wall Street‘s 12-month forecast projects Amazon’s stock price to be $226.50. We see AWS continuing its current 12% growth rate but see Amazon’s advertising business outperforming analysts’ expectations.
Amazon (AMZN) Stock Forecast Through 2030
- AWS: Assuming AWS stems its market share loss and investments in AI to counterbalance the threat from Microsoft and Google.
- E-Commerce: Amazon continues to pour investments into e-commerce, forgoing added profits to maintain market share. Our case model assumes growth in new logistics and efficiencies from robotics in warehouses leads to this unit finally delivering strong operating profits.
- Advertising: Amazon’s advertising continued to grow and the now $47 billion business unit and we see a high teens growth rate compounded annually.
Add all these numbers up and take out some amount for “new bets” the company will surely be investing in (and a potential dividend boost)and we see revenue in 2030 at $1.15 trillion and $131 billion in net income. Today, the company trades for about 50X earnings, which we’ll take down to 35 times as the company matures (but continues showing growth). In our analysis, Amazon is worth $2.6 trillion in 2030. Here are our revenue, net income, and company size estimates through 2030:
| Year | Revenue | Net Income | Total Enterprise Value |
| 2024 | $638 | $48.56 | $1.93 |
| 2025 | $710 | $62.13 | $2.12 |
| 2026 | $788 | $79.68 | $2.19 |
| 2027 | $867 | $96.53 | $2.29 |
| 2028 | $957 | $114.17 | $2.39 |
| 2029 | $1,049 | $136.69 | $2.5 |
| 2030 | $1,149 | $131.39 | $2.6 |
*Revenue and net income reported in billions and TEV in trillions
Amazon’s Share Price Estimates 2025-2030
Amazon Stocks Price Target for 2030
We estimate Amazon’s stock price to be $430.50 per share with 10% year-over-year revenue growth but compressed margins from more competition in its AWS unit. Our estimated stock price for Amazon will be 86.04% higher than the current stock price.
| Year | Price Target | % Change From Current Price |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $226.50 | Downside of -2.09% |
| 2026 | $287.00 | Upside of 26.67% |
| 2027 | $371.00 | Upside of 63.74% |
| 2028 | $308.00 | Upside of 35.93% |
| 2029 | $361.90 | Upside of 59.72% |
| 2030 | $430.50 | Upside of 90.00% |
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