Space exploration stock Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ:LUNR) is heading for the moon after it said its second lunar launch was ready to take off.

The only private company to have ever touched down on the Moon’s surface, Intuitive Machines is poised to repeat the historic event on Wednesday evening when the Athena lunar lander, riding atop a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket is set to blast off from NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida.

LUNR stock is going orbital on the announcement. 

T minus 10 and counting

If this mission succeeds, Intuitive Machines’ growth prospects could skyrocket, but there are some very real risks that make investing in it a gamble. Let’s break it down in simple terms — what could go right, what could go wrong, and what’s happened recently to shape this picture.

If IM-2 lands successfully near the lunar south pole, as planned, Intuitive Machines could see huge growth. The mission, carrying NASA’s Polar Resources Ice Mining Experiment-1 (PRIME-1) to search for water ice, builds on its historic IM-1 mission from February 2024, when its Odysseus lander became the first private company to land on the moon. 

A successful IM-2, landing in the Shackleton crater area, would prove Intuitive Machines can deliver reliable lunar services, boosting its credibility with NASA and commercial clients. NASA’s Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program, which paid $118 million for IM-1 and now values IM-2 at $62.5 million, relies on private firms like Intuitive to pave the way for astronaut missions under Artemis. 

Success could unlock more CLPS contracts, like the $4.82 billion lunar communications network deal from 2024, and attract private clients, pushing revenue from $58.5 million in 2024’s third quarter to over $100 million annually. With a cash balance of $55 million and a growing backlog, Intuitive could expand into lunar infrastructure, data services, and rovers, potentially quadrupling its market value of $600 million if it nails this landing.

Houston, we have a problem

But the risks are massive, and investors should be cautious. Space is risky — IM-1’s moon landing tipped over, breaking a leg, and limiting data from some payloads, like EagleCam, despite NASA calling it a success.

That volatility sent Intuitive’ s stock swinging wildly, tripling then plummeting, closing up 20% but still below the $7 per share it hit after the mission. 

IM-2 faces similar dangers: technical glitches, like the IM-1 navigation failure (a forgotten safety switch — oops!), could doom the landing, especially in the tricky south pole terrain. Recent reports note IM-2’s Nova-C lander is “ready to go” with no current issues, but space history shows even flawless prep can fail.

Japan’s SLIM and India’s Chandrayaan-3 had close calls. Budget constraints, like NASA’s Artemis delays, and competition from Astrobotic and Firefly could shrink contracts. SpaceX plans to return to manned space flight to the Moon as early as 2027.

Intuitive still remains financially fragile, even with $90 million in cash in the bank, as it has a history of losses risking bankruptcy if missions flop.

Recent issues highlight this rollercoaster. IM-1’s success last year was a game-changer, returning the U.S. to the moon after 50 years, but its rough landing exposed weaknesses. Also IM-2 was delayed from a late-2024 launch to February 2025, highlighting scheduling risks. Still, its sold-out status and NASA partnership are positives. 

The $9 million contract to manage lunar orbiters and a $150 million verification phase for the communications network are wins, but stock volatility — tumbling 30% after IM-1’s tip-over — accentuates investor skittishness. If IM-2 fails, Intuitive’s stock could crash, erasing growth and confidence, leaving it a risky bet unless it proves reliability. 

Key takeaway

A successful IM-2 mission, however, could transform Intuitive Machines into a lunar leader, even though its trajectory is perilous. Patient investors should profit over the long haul, but brace for ups and downs. LUNR stock is not a get-rich-quick investment.

 

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