S&P 500 (VOO) Live: Will Tariffs Troubles Tank the Stock Market?
Key Points
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Stock markets opened higher on Monday, but tariffs worries remain, with China exports and US agricultural sales in focus this morning.
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Boeing is a bright spot in the market as its shares climb on an upgrade and reports that 737 MAX production is starting to perk up.
Live Updates
Green is Good
A topsy-turvy day ended with the S&P 500 back in the green.
As the closing bell struck, the index and the ETF both ended “up” by the narrowest of margins, less than 0.1%, but positive. At five straight days, this is actually the longest stretch of uninterrupted gains the S&P 500 has enjoyed so far this year.
April Showers Bring May... Earnings Warnings. Maybe.
With one hour to go before close of trading, the S&P 500 looks intent upon closing the day in the red, and breaking a four-day winning streak. Both the index and the ETF that tracks it, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, are off their lows but still down 0.3%.
Market watchers blame earnings season. Although Q1 reports have gone well so far, with 73% of companies reporting beating analyst estimates, consumers who went shopping before tariffs go into effect may have inflated results last quarter, leading to potential earnings misses in Q2. With the trade war still in full effect, that seems to be what’s worrying investors today as the week’s earnings results, and earnings guidance, begins rolling in.
The Only Thing That Glitters is Gold
S&P 500 selling picked up the other side noon, with the index and the ETF both down now about 0.8%. Oil prices are also down, with WTI crude and Brent both down roughly 2.2%.
Perhaps fearing the market is starting to slide lower again, some investors appear to be flocking to gold as a safe haven. The shiny metal got $50 more valuable today, and now sells for just under $3,350 an ounce, 1.5% more expensive than it was at Friday’s close.
Oops. Did I Jinx It?
In mid-morning trading, the S&P 500 has dipped into the red, down 0.2%, and “the Voo” is right down there with it. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is adding uncertainty to the market as he tells China it must make the first move in lowering trade tensions, because “they sell five times more to us than we sell to them.”
On the plus side, Bessent hinted that a trade deal with India is in process, alongside more than a dozen other “important trading relationships” that are being discussed.
In further positive macroeconomic news, traders are getting more optimistic on the prospect of interest rate cuts in the U.S., forecasting as many as three cuts to come in 2025.
Monday dawned bright for the S&P 500 and its ETF twin the Vanguard S&P 500 Index (NYSEMTK: VOO | VOO Price Prediction), both of which are up about 0.2% in the market’s opening minutes. But there are caveats.
CNBC is reporting a sharp production slowdown among the 10 to 20 million Chinese workers involved in manufacturing exports for the U.S., with “several factories” reported to “have told half of their employees to go home for a few weeks and stopped most of their production.” From the other side of the mirror, meanwhile, reports are that the U.S. is losing “massive” amounts of agriculture sales as China curtails imports of U.S. agricultural produce.
Long story short, the trade war appears to be in full effect, and while the market may look pretty green right now, that could still change.
Earnings
Meanwhile, we’re well into earnings season here in the U.S., and Domino’s Pizza (Nasdaq: DPZ) just delivered a mixed earnings report, weakest than expected sales, but profits beating expectations at $4.33 per share.
The report looks similar to Chipotle Mexican Grill‘s (NYSE: CMG) numbers last week, which likewise reported less revenue than anticipated, with earnings equal to forecasts at $0.29 per share.
Analyst Calls
Elsewhere in the market, Bernstein SocGen just upgraded Boeing (NYSE: BA) stock to outperform, forecasting continued recovery of the aerospace giant’s 737 MAX operations. Bernstein expects Boeing to reach 38 planes-per-month production levels by July, and believes by the end of this year, Boeing will step up production to 42 planes per month, accelerating cash flow and a return to profitability.
Other companies winning upgrades today include insurer Progressive (NYSE: PGR), hiked to buy at Bank of America on growth in its automotive insurance unit; and Toyota Industries, which is believe to now be a buyout target of Toyota Motor (NYSE: TM). CLSA is anticipating a rich payout if the deal goes through, hiking its price target on TI by 65%, to 18,500 Japanese yen.
Joel South covers large-cap stocks, dividend investing, and major market trends, with a focus on earnings analysis, valuation, and turning complex data into actionable insights for investors.
He brings more than 15 years of experience as an investor and financial journalist, including 12 years at The Motley Fool, where he served as an investment analyst, Bureau Chief, and later led the Fool.com investing news desk. He has also co-hosted an investing podcast and appeared across TV and radio discussing market trends.
© Boeing 737 jet aeroplane landing through gap in stormy sky. (Shutterstock.com) by travellight
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