There are millions of older Americans today who rely on Social Security to pay their bills in retirement. Granted, some retirees have savings or other income streams they can rely on for money, like a pension or part-time work. But for people whose sole retirement income source is Social Security, money can get very tight.
It’s baby boomers in that situation who tend to be the most invested in Social Security’s cost-of-living adjustments, or COLAs. Each year, Social Security benefits are eligible for a boost based on changes in inflation.
In January 2025, Social Security recipients saw their benefits rise 2.5%. Many seniors were unhappy with that raise, and understandably so.
But so far, 2026’s Social Security COLA is not shaping up to be much more generous. And that’s something baby boomers need to prepare for immediately.
Why boomers may be looking at a not-so-spectacular COLA
Social Security COLAs are tied directly to inflation. And thankfully, inflation has cooled nicely this year compared to recent years.
In the post-pandemic years, Americans found themselves loaded with stimulus cash at a time when supply chains were slowing down and getting backlogged. All of that extra spending created a wide gap between supply and demand, leading to much higher prices in a short period of time.
Inflation peaked in June 2022 at 9.1%, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, before gradually cooling. The following year, seniors on Social Security got an enormous COLA.
But that COLA came at the cost of rampant inflation. Because inflation has been moderate this year, next year’s Social Security COLA is looking to be pretty modest as well.
Many beneficiaries will say that’s a bad thing. However, in reality, it’s more of a break-even situation.
What 2026’s COLA might look like
It’s too soon to predict what COLA Social Security recipients will get in 2026, since that number is based on third quarter inflation readings. While July’s data should be released pretty soon, it’s only one-third of the total puzzle.
Based on inflation data to date, the non-partisan Senior Citizens League is projecting a 2.6% COLA for 2026. It’s a number many people won’t be happy with if it ends up being accurate.
However, there’s a good chance that 2026’s Social Security COLA will end up somewhere in that ballpark. That’s something baby boomers who rely on Social Security need to prepare for. People in that situation should:
- Assess their spending immediately
- Reduce expenses where possible
- Consider relocating to a part of the U.S. where benefits have more buying power
- Look into part-time work when possible for extra income
The Social Security Administration will not be able to officially announce a 2026 COLA until October. Retirees who are worried about a small one should take action now, before that news arrives officially.
If next year’s COLA ends up being surprisingly generous, in a worst-case scenario, they’ll have improved their finances proactively. If next year’s COLA ends up being surprisingly stingy, they should be better equipped to cope with a smaller raise than expected.
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