Live: Will Trade Desk Soar After Q2 Earnings Today?
Key Points
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Revenue expected to rise +17% YoY, but EPS growth projected at just +5% as operating leverage lags.
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AI-powered Kokai adoption reaches two-thirds of clients, driving lower CPAs and improved campaign results.
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Retail media and CTV demand remain strategic pillars, with investor focus on share gains and brand sentiment into H2.
Live Updates
Final Reactions
| Prior FY25 Est. | Post-Q2 Guide/Implied | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.86B | >$2.87B+ |
| EPS (Non-GAAP) | $1.78 | Likely unchanged |
Sentiment Summary
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Severe selloff despite headline beats points to guidance disappointment or margin skepticism.
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Kokai innovation strong, but not enough to offset operating leverage concerns.
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EBITDA guide too light vs. whisper expectations.
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Margins falling, despite rising platform adoption.
What Changed This Quarter
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Adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 39% (vs. 41% YoY)
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CFO transition: Alex Kayyal named incoming CFO (effective Aug 21)
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New AI creative partnerships with Rembrand, Nova, Bunny Studio
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Expanded OpenPath and retail integrations (Instacart, Visa, NIQ)
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$261M in stock buybacks, but share count remains steady
Key Operating Highlights
| Metric | Q2 2025 | Q2 2024 | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $694M | $585M | +18.6% |
| GAAP EPS | $0.18 | $0.17 | +5.9% |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $0.41 | $0.39 | +5.1% |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $271M | $242M | +12.0% |
| Adjusted EBITDA Margin | 39% | 41% | –200 bps |
| Customer Retention | >95% | >95% | Unchanged |
Slower margin expansion and light sequential EBITDA growth signal limited operating leverage, despite top-line strength.
Guidance Update
The revenue guide implies 3.3% QoQ growth and solid execution into H2, which supports analyst confidence in Kokai’s AI leverage and continued CTV/retail media tailwinds.
| Metric | Q3 2025 Guide | Q2 Implied / Prior | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ≥ $717M | $694M | 📈 Raised |
| Adjusted EBITDA | ~$277M | $271M | 📈 Raised |
Management Commentary
“Kokai is helping advertisers drive better results by integrating more data into every decision, using AI as a co-pilot, and unlocking the full potential of first-party data… we’re delivering exceptional value to our clients and helping to strengthen the open internet.”
-Jeff Green CEO
Jeff Green’s tone was confident and focused on long-term AI differentiation. However, the market’s severe reaction suggests near-term investor priorities are shifting toward profit scalability, not just innovation.
Trade Desk Numbers In, Stock Plummets
Despite a revenue beat and in-line EPS, TTD shares plunged 25% AH, likely due to concerns about margin compression, modest EBITDA growth, and a light Q3 guide vs. whisper expectations. With adjusted EBITDA margins falling to 39% and macro headwinds weighing on ad budgets, investors may be reassessing the pace of operating leverage and AI monetization through Kokai.
| Metric | Actual | Estimate | Beat/Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $694M | $686.03M | ✅ Beat |
| EPS (Non-GAAP) | $0.41 | $0.41 | ✅ In Line |
How Trade Desk Performed After Recent Earnings
TTD’s post-earnings performance has been highly polarized. Q1 and Q2 2024 triggered strong multi-day rallies, while the Q4 print resulted in a massive drawdown despite an EPS beat — likely due to soft guidance. With a mean 14-day swing of ±23.74%, the stock consistently exhibits major price volatility around earnings events.
| Quarter | EPS Surprise | 1-Day Move | 7-Day Move | 14-Day Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | +24.2% | +25.82% | +37.27% | +31.65% |
| Q4 2024 | +9.8% | –31.85% | –36.15% | –39.75% |
| Q3 2024 | +6.7% | +0.26% | +0.86% | +2.04% |
| Q2 2024 | +17.6% | +16.95% | +18.36% | +21.51% |
Trade Desk (Nasdaq: TTD) is set to report Q2 2025 earnings after the close today, with the call scheduled for 5:00 PM ET. With the digital advertising market stabilizing, investors are looking for signals that TTD can sustain double-digit growth and continue to take share amid growing CTV and retail media adoption.
We’ll be updating this live blog with news and analysis right after TTD’s earnings hit the newswires. To receive updates, all you have to do is leave this page open, and updates will post automatically.
What to Expect
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Revenue: $686.03 million
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EPS (Normalized): $0.41
Full-Year 2025:
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Revenue: $2.86 billion
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EPS: $1.78
Full-Year 2026:
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Revenue: $3.39 billion
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EPS: $2.14
Q2 revenue is projected to rise +17.4% YoY (vs. $584.55M last year), while EPS is up just +5.1% YoY — suggesting limited operating leverage despite scale
Key Areas to Watch
Kokai rollout and AI performance gains
Management noted that roughly two-thirds of clients have now adopted Kokai, and those using it are seeing material improvements in campaign performance — including 24% lower cost per conversion and 20% lower cost per acquisition. Analysts will watch for further adoption progress and how the platform’s AI tooling (via Koa) unlocks share in lower-funnel budgets.
Retail media and Walmart DSP traction
Retail media remains a top strategic vertical for TTD, and the company highlighted continued momentum with its Walmart partnership. Investors will look for updated commentary on spend volumes and differentiation versus Amazon and traditional retail media networks.
OpenPath and Sincera integration
OpenPath adoption is yielding meaningful lift in fill rates and revenue for publishers, while the integration of Sincera metadata across the platform is improving transparency in the supply chain. Watch for usage metrics or KPIs that indicate these tools are scaling across verticals and contributing to spend efficiency.
CTV demand and competitive positioning vs. Amazon
CEO Jeff Green reaffirmed that CTV is “the kingpin of the open Internet,” and asserted that TTD is gaining share in a competitive environment that includes Amazon’s DSP. Commentary on share gains, content owner partnerships, and ad supply dynamics in CTV will be critical.
Macro pressure and brand sentiment into H2
Management noted increased volatility among large brand advertisers due to macro uncertainty, but reaffirmed their ability to “grab land” even in downturns. Investors will be focused on any updated outlook for Q3 and whether the current guide embeds conservatism.
Joel South has been an avid investor and financial writer for over 15 years, publishing thousands of articles analyzing stocks, markets, and investment strategies across multiple leading financial media platforms. He spent 12 years at The Motley Fool, where he worked as an investment analyst and Bureau Chief before ascending to direct the Fool.com investing news desk, overseeing editorial operations and content strategy. During his tenure, Joel co-hosted an investing podcast and became a recognized voice in financial media through numerous TV and radio appearances discussing stock market trends and investment opportunities.
Currently serving as General Manager and Managing Editor at 24/7 Wall Street, Joel has published hundreds of in-depth analyses focusing on large-cap stocks, dividend-paying equities, and market-moving developments. His comprehensive coverage spans earnings previews, price predictions, and investment forecasts for major companies across all sectors—from technology giants and semiconductor manufacturers to consumer brands and financial institutions. Joel's expertise encompasses t fundamental analysis, options market interpretation, institutional investor behavior, and translating complex market dynamics into clear, actionable insights for individual investors.
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