Live: Will Oracle Pop After Earnings Tonight?
Key Points
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Oracle Cloud Infrastructure growth remains the single most important catalyst, with management guiding to >70% IaaS growth in FY26.
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Multi-cloud partnerships (Microsoft, Google, AWS) and AI database adoption are accelerating backlog visibility.
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Investors are focused on margins and CapEx intensity, with FY26 spend forecast above $25B to meet demand.
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Join us for live Oracle earnings coverage — real-time results, analysis, and what it means for investors.
Live Updates
Cloud Revenue Is Massive
Cloud revenue expected to almost double to $18 billion with backlog growing 360% TO $455 billion.
My takeaway
The big takeaway here is the better color on guidance is a much bigger win than quarterly revenue or EPS. The stock is now up 22.36% after-hours.
- Bullish: Massive backlog, AI Database catalyst, multi-cloud momentum.
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Bearish: GAAP/FCF drag from capex and restructuring.
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Neutral: Street will watch how $455B backlog converts into OCI revenue.
What Changed This Quarter
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Backlog regime-shift: RPO vaulted to $455B; management expects >$500B soon.
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Multi-cloud flywheel: DB revenue via AWS/GCP/Azure up 1,529%, aided by 37 more partner datacenters coming online.
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AI product shot: Teasing Oracle AI Database (LLM-on-DB) to tap installed-base data directly—an adoption accelerant.
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P&L mix: Cloud +28% (IaaS +55%); Software license/support flat to down; restructuring expense stepped up.
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Capital intensity: Capex spiked again; TTM FCF negative as Oracle races to provision capacity for booked demand.
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Capital returns: $0.50 quarterly dividend maintained.
Key Numbers
Demand is concentrating in OCI + multi-cloud database, while elevated capex (capacity build-out) and restructuring weigh on GAAP optics near-term.
| KPI | Result | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $14.9B | +12% |
| Cloud (IaaS+SaaS) | $7.2B | +28% |
| Cloud Infra (IaaS) | $3.3B | +55% |
| Cloud Apps (SaaS) | $3.8B | +11% |
| Fusion ERP (SaaS) | $1.0B | +17% |
| NetSuite ERP (SaaS) | $1.0B | +16% |
| RPO | $455B | +359% |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $1.47 | +6% |
| GAAP EPS | $1.01 | –2% |
| 12-mo Op Cash Flow | $21.5B | +13% |
| Capex (quarter) | $8.5B | ↑ sharply |
| Free Cash Flow (TTM) | –$5.9B | down on capex |
Guidance
Oracle didn’t issue traditional FY revenue/EPS guidance. Instead, it raised the Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) long-term plan and telegraphed more mega-deals.
| Item | Prior Color | New Color | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| OCI FY26 revenue | — | $18B (~+77%) | 📈 Raised (new) |
| OCI LT outlook (next 4 yrs) | — | $32B → $73B → $114B → $144B | 📈 Raised (new) |
| RPO (backlog) | $99B (FY25 Q4) | $455B (+359% YoY) | 📈 Surged |
| Dividend | $0.50/qtr | $0.50 declared | ⚖️ Flat |
Street models likely lift OCI growth trajectories and long-dated revenue, even if near-term EPS is pressured by capex and restructuring/tax items.
Management Commentary
“We signed four multi-billion-dollar contracts…RPO backlog increasing 359% to $455B…We expect to sign several additional multi-billion-dollar customers and RPO is likely to exceed half-a-trillion dollars.” — Safra Catz, CEO
“MultiCloud database revenue from Amazon, Google and Microsoft grew 1,529%…Next month we’ll introduce the Oracle AI Database, enabling customers to use LLMs (Gemini, ChatGPT, Grok, etc.) directly on top of the Oracle Database.” — Larry Ellison, Chairman & CTO
Backlog scale and multi-cloud distribution are accelerating, while the AI Database pitch is designed to unlock Oracle’s massive installed-base data with LLMs—driving future consumption.
Oracle Up Big After Earnings
Oracle is up over 7% numbers.
| Metric | Reported | Consensus (prev) | Beat/Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $14.9B | ~$15.0B | ❌ |
| EPS (Non-GAAP) | $1.47 | ~$1.48 | ❌ |
Tiny headline misses, monster demand signals. The RPO explosion to $455B (+359% YoY) plus a bold OCI revenue path ($18B this year → $32B/$73B/$114B/$144B) more than explains the rally. Multi-cloud DB + AI positioning is doing the heavy lifting.
Earnings History And Stock Performance
Oracle has beaten in 2 of the last 4 quarters, but stock reaction has been consistently negative to muted, showing high skepticism despite delivery.
| Quarter | EPS Surprise | 1-Day Move | 7-Day Move | 14-Day Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | +3.37% | –3.4% | –5.1% | –6.8% |
| Q3 2025 | –1.30% | –1.2% | +2.0% | +2.7% |
| Q2 2025 | –0.77% | –3.0% | –4.6% | –7.5% |
| Q1 2025 | +4.29% | –1.7% | –0.4% | –2.2% |
Live Oracle Coverage
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Oracle (NYSE: ORCL | ORCL Price Prediction) reports fiscal Q1 2026 results after the close. The stock has rallied on AI-driven cloud optimism, but execution scrutiny remains high following several quarters of muted post-earnings reactions despite beats. The stock is up 60% over the past 6 months and with management recently raising FY26 revenue guidance above $67 billion, tonight’s results could confirm Wall Street’s enthusiasm and send the share price higher.
What To Expect Tonight
- Revenue: $15.04 billion
- EPS (Normalized): $1.48
- FY 2026 Revenue: $66.66 billion
- FY 2026 EPS: $6.77
- FY 2027 Revenue: $79.87 billion
- FY 2027 EPS: $8.09
Consensus implies ~13% top-line growth and ~6% EPS growth YoY for the quarter (vs. $13.31B / $1.39 last year). For FY26, growth accelerates to ~16% revenue and ~12% EPS.
Key Areas to Watch
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OCI scale and AI demand – Oracle is targeting more than 70% growth in infrastructure-as-a-service and over 40% in total cloud revenue for FY26, with AI database workloads driving the surge.
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CapEx intensity – After spending $21B in FY25, management now expects capital expenditures to exceed $25B in FY26 to support backlog, a ramp that raises the balance between growth and cash burn.
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Stargate and large customer wins – The multiyear “Stargate” initiative and partnerships with OpenAI could prove transformative, while recent deals with Temu, ByteDance, and Uber add meaningful scale to the backlog.
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Applications suite momentum – Fusion and NetSuite bookings are accelerating, and investors will look for signs that Oracle is extending SaaS adoption beyond its infrastructure base.
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Margin outlook – Heavy investment is likely to pressure free cash flow in the near term, and markets want clearer visibility on when scaling will translate into accretive margins. a
Joel South covers large-cap stocks, dividend investing, and major market trends, with a focus on earnings analysis, valuation, and turning complex data into actionable insights for investors.
He brings more than 15 years of experience as an investor and financial journalist, including 12 years at The Motley Fool, where he served as an investment analyst, Bureau Chief, and later led the Fool.com investing news desk. He has also co-hosted an investing podcast and appeared across TV and radio discussing market trends.
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