Will More Circular Deal-Making Be in the Cards for Nvidia in 2026?

The circular nature of the deals and partnerships we’ve seen across the AI space may make some skeptics and those worried about a looming AI bubble burst a bit woozy. Undoubtedly, it seems like a new deal is coming in every couple of weeks. And if each new announcement or rumor has you on pause, you’re definitely not alone.

And while adding more dominoes to the row might make for a more spectacular implosion at some point down the road, investors might wish to take a step back and reconsider what every new deal means and whether it really is a sign that we’re headed for a repeat of the events that unfolded in the late-1990s.

All these deals seem to fuel the AI bubble fears

With Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN | AMZN Price Prediction) most recently reported to be considering a big $10 billion investment in OpenAI, the web of deals across big tech titans seems to be getting bigger and more interlinked. Does that mean the risks are higher?

Possibly. But adding more dominoes to the row might not be all too big of a deal if there’s nobody who nudges one of them anytime soon. As always, timing is such a hard thing to get right. If you don’t get the timing right, you may as well be wrong about the bubble situation.

And while AI bubble talks are probably going to be the talk of the town in 2026, I think investors might be better off sticking with individual value names rather than dismissing all stocks until that big crash comes. Indeed, timing the market, even when valuations are on the higher end, might not be all too beneficial.

So, in my view, the question of whether we’re in a bubble or not might matter a whole lot less if you’re diversified and ready to ride through a storm.

Could the circular AI deals keep happening, even as investors give a thumbs down?

Whether it’s OpenAI or Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) that keeps its foot to the deal-making pedal, I don’t think investors should hit the panic button just yet, especially as many others are already acting as though AI has run into a brick wall. While increased collaborations between tech titans and innovative startups could make it harder to track systemic risk, I do think that such circularity stands to accelerate efforts while reducing waste.

Undoubtedly, raising the bar on risk isn’t exactly what retail investors want from the big tech titans they hold shares in. But the more elevated risk profile, I believe, also accompanies greater potential rewards if things go right. In essence, the bear case gets more bearish while the bull case might get that much more bullish. At the end of the day, large-scale AI and ambitious goals (think reaching artificial general intelligence, or AGI) are profound challenges that require group effort. 

As a builder of the most powerful GPUs out there, Nvidia stands out as a firm that should keep making deals where possible to keep advancing the technology. So, should investors expect more circular dealmaking in the new year?

Time will tell, but I’d say it’s probable, especially as enterprise adoption of AI looks to pick up, should more evidence of monetization arise.

Right now, it’s unclear if the return on investment will be there. And while we might not know what the ROIs will be in the near future, I do think that there’s a chance that if evidence of a decent ROI suddenly comes flowing in, an AI adoption floodgate might just open, unlocking another wave of growth for the firms across the AI stack.

The bottom line

Of course, we can only speculate for now, but it seems like many analysts see more circular deals in the new year. And as the king of AI chips, Nvidia is likelier than not to be involved, as too are leading model makers like OpenAI. So, in short, expect more of the same in the AI scene.