Vistra Stock Can Gain 78%, Says Pro. Here’s What it’ll Take.

Shares of Vistra (NYSE:VST | VST Price Prediction) are going through a bit of a slump, now down around 24% from its peak. Undoubtedly, the bear seems firmly in control, especially as the S&P chops around following fears surrounding Trump’s new slate of tariffs over Greenland. Undoubtedly, it’s hard to tell if we’re at the start of a vicious market-wise correction.

If we are, hyper-growth plays such as Vistra could take on amplified pain on the downside, given the 1.42 beta and loftier multiple. In any case, the integrated energy company remains one of the bigger beneficiaries of the AI race, especially if we are on the cusp of an inference boom.

Vistra stock looks expensive on the surface

With energy as one of the major bottlenecks, it’s firms like Vistra that will really need to step up. With the firm firing on all cylinders, with a number of power projects (especially in nuclear and gas) to help fuel the AI data center boom, there seem to be few reasons, other than valuation, to be a net seller of the stock, especially with so many analysts recommending the name as a buy this year.

Of course, the price of admission remains steep, even after the latest slump. Shares are trading at just shy of 60 times trailing price-to-earnings (P/E). Given its nuclear power deals with some of Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META), though, and the aggressiveness of its expansion plan, perhaps the multiple isn’t high enough given the longer-term outlook for energy demand. In my view, Vistra deserves to go for a premium valuation.

Looking into next year, Vistra shares actually look too cheap to ignore, with shares sporting a forward P/E of just 17.4 times. Undoubtedly, Vistra is a powerful earnings grower, and it might just have what it takes to keep growing the bottom line at a blistering pace as it looks to become a premier AI data center power play.

There’s no shortage of bulls when it comes to Vistra

As the multi-year data center boom and nuclear power renaissance continue to go strong, a case could be made that Vistra isn’t as expensive as it could be. In fact, some analysts still view the shares as a pretty good deal at around $165 and change. At this juncture, Scotiabank analysts have a $293 price target on the shares, which entails a whopping 78% gain from current levels. Of course, the high upside potential comes with more than its fair share of risks, especially if the AI trade experiences a sharp correction at some point.

Given the opportunity at hand, perhaps many are underestimating the earnings growth on the horizon. Undoubtedly, there are real profits to be had from power generation, regardless of when the big wave of AI monetization hits. Of course, if AI chips get more efficient and the agentic AI becomes more practical for various workflows, perhaps there’s a good chance that investors are still undervaluing the company’s longer-term trajectory.

Another bull over at TD Cowen sees Vistra as a top pick in the U.S. power and utilities scene. They cite “locational advantages” as well as “structural tailwinds” amid the AI revolution. I couldn’t agree more. Vistra is incredibly well-positioned to capture the growth to come. With Meta Platforms sprinting to catch up in the AI race, Vistra stands out as one of the supporting acts that could benefit greatly.

The bottom line

If Meta continues to floor it while the AI boom continues strong, I see Vistra stock having strong enough legs to climb to Scotia’s Street-high price target just shy of the $300 per-share mark. Given the tailwinds at its back are secular in nature, perhaps Vistra is being unfairly punished, especially as investors look to take a bit of profit off the table after a fantastic past two years’ worth of gains (up 320%).