Coinbase Stock Is Down 27% But Analysts Still See a Turnaround Coming

A wildly popular cryptocurrency exchange, Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN | COIN Price Prediction) shares jumped 16% on February 13 following the company’s Q4 2025 earnings report, a rally that suggests investors may finally be looking past Coinbase’s reputation as a pure bitcoin proxy. Despite the stock still being down 26% over the past month, the post-earnings bounce suggests investors are beginning to price in Coinbase’s diversification story rather than just its crypto trading volumes.

The quarter itself was mixed, as Coinbase reported $1.7 billion in revenue, down 5% quarter over quarter, with transaction revenue falling 6% to $983 million. The crypto market cap declined 11% in the same period, yet Coinbase still delivered its 12th consecutive quarter of adjusted EBITDA profitability. That resilience is what caught attention as CEO Brian Armstrong leaned into the diversification story, pointing to 12 products generating over $100 million in annual revenue and the company’s push into equities, prediction markets, and derivatives under the “Everything Exchange” banner.

Retail Skepticism Runs Deep on Reddit

Reddit sentiment tells a harsher story. On r/wallstreetbets, where they take no prisoners, Coinbase sentiment hit a 48-hour low of 18 out of 100 on Thursday, with peak engagement of 1,485 upvotes and 318 comments in a single hour Wednesday night. The community remains bearish, focused on Coinbase’s vulnerability to crypto trading volumes drying up. One post titled “Yeah I’m cooked” captured the mood among retail traders watching their positions deteriorate, with the author writing: “Yeah I’m cooked” — a blunt summary that drew 18 upvotes and 26 comments from traders sharing the same pain.

Yeah I’m cooked
by [author] in wallstreetbets

To be fair, Reddit’s level of skepticism isn’t baseless as Coinbase’s business remains tethered to crypto volatility, and Q1 guidance showed subscription and services revenue ranging from $550 million to $630 million, down from $727 million in Q4. But Armstrong’s proposal is that the company is building beyond that cycle. Derivatives hit all-time highs in Q4, the company rolled out nearly 10,000 equity tickers this month as part of the same “Everything Exchange” rollout, and stablecoin USDC reached a market cap of $76 billion.

The Everything Exchange Bet

Analysts seem willing to give Coinbase credit for the pivot, as 20 of 29 rate the stock a Buy or Strong Buy, with a consensus price target of $314.94, implying 87% upside from current levels. That’s a bet on Coinbase becoming a diversified fintech platform rather than just a crypto trading desk, especially given Bitcoin’s volatility. Unsurprisingly, Reddit traders remain unconvinced, and that gap between institutional analyst targets and retail sentiment is worth watching.